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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/abnb
last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:37:20.632Z
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# Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T10:37:19.513Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $141.66 (▲ 0.93%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $84.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $110.81 – $147.25 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 7 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $0.30 (+25% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $2.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $148 (+4.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 63/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Airbnb, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$2.6B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$0.30</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 0 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 63

= MoonshotScore <strong>63</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance

Airbnb expects to generate revenue of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion in Q1 2026, representing year-over-year growth of 14% to 16%.

> "In Q1, we expect to generate revenue of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 14% to 16%."
> — Ellie Mertz, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 2. Revenue Growth Acceleration

Airbnb expects revenue growth to accelerate to low double digits in 2026, with an ambition to grow even faster.

> "We expect revenue growth to accelerate to at least low double digits in 2026."
> — Brian Chesky, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 3. Free Cash Flow Generation

Airbnb has been able to generate free cash flow at nearly 40% of revenue and nearly $19 billion of cumulative free cash flow since its IPO.

> "That's why we've been able to generate free cash flow at nearly 40% of revenue and nearly $19 billion of cumulative free cash flow since our IPO."
> — Brian Chesky, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 4. Adjusted Ebitda Margin Stability

Airbnb expects adjusted EBITDA margins to be stable year-over-year in 2026.

> "We expect adjusted EBITDA margins to be stable year-over-year."
> — Brian Chesky, CEO, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025

### 5. Capital Investment Strategy

Airbnb doesn't need massive capital investment to grow; they don't own homes, operate experiences, and are not building data centers.

> "We don't need massive capital investment to grow. We don't own homes. We don't operate experiences, and we're not building data centers."
> — Brian Chesky, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+22.3%) |
| Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (82.5%, software/cloud territory) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (9.7%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.5B, 76.1× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | high R&D intensity (19.2%, aggressive) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 60.7 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | mixed (49% buy) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +4.1% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 61 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +4.1% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +4.1% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 60.7 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $133 — hisse %6.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $128 — hisse %10.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -19%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $0.24 | $0.23 | BEAT | +1.0% |
| Q2 FY25 | $1.03 | $0.94 | BEAT | -8.0% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.21 | $2.31 | MISS | +0.3% |
| Q4 FY25 | $0.56 | $0.67 | +-15.9% EPS | +4.6% |

Q4 (February 12, 2026): EPS $0.56 vs $0.67 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +-15.9% beat. D+1 movement: +4.6%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $0.30 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $0.30<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $148<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $185<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $0.30 + CapEx < $7.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.30<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $7.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $142<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $148<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $0.29 or CapEx ≥ $7.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $0.29<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $142 below SMA200 $128<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $109<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q4: EPS $0.56 vs $0.67 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +4.6% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25

### CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $7.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q4 op margin 9.7%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $148 (+4.1% upside vs current $142)
- **High / Low:** $185 / $107
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 21 / 20 / 2
- **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 143 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. revenue_growth_acceleration

**Claim:** Airbnb expects revenue growth to accelerate to low double digits in 2026, with an ambition to grow even faster.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect revenue growth to accelerate to at least low double digits in 2026."

**Numbers:** 2026

### 2. adjusted_ebitda_margin_stability

**Claim:** Airbnb expects adjusted EBITDA margins to be stable year-over-year in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect adjusted EBITDA margins to be stable year-over-year."

**Numbers:** —

### 3. capital_investment_strategy

**Claim:** Airbnb doesn't need massive capital investment to grow; they don't own homes, operate experiences, and are not building data centers.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We don't need massive capital investment to grow. We don't own homes. We don't operate experiences, and we're not building data centers."

**Numbers:** —

### 4. free_cash_flow_generation

**Claim:** Airbnb has been able to generate free cash flow at nearly 40% of revenue and nearly $19 billion of cumulative free cash flow since its IPO.

**Evidence (transcript):** "That's why we've been able to generate free cash flow at nearly 40% of revenue and nearly $19 billion of cumulative free cash flow since our IPO."

**Numbers:** 40%, $19 billion

### 5. q1_2026_revenue_guidance

**Claim:** Airbnb expects to generate revenue of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion in Q1 2026, representing year-over-year growth of 14% to 16%.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In Q1, we expect to generate revenue of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 14% to 16%."

**Numbers:** $2.59 billion, $2.63 billion, 14%, 16%


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*