--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/acgl last_updated: 2026-05-09T11:05:15.523Z --- # Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:05:14.912Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $93.80 (▼ -0.76%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $33.4B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $82.45 – $103.39 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 28 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.45 (-5% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A+ (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $104 (+10.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 43/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Arch Capital Group Ltd. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $4.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.45^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 43 = MoonshotScore 43^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Middle Market Impact Arch Capital chose not to renew certain program business acquired in the middle market commercial transaction that did not align with our risk appetite or meet our profitability requirements, which is expected to reduce net premium return by approximately $250 million throughout 2026. > "We also chose not to renew certain program business acquired in the middle market commercial transaction that did not align with our risk appetite or meet our profitability requirements. As we have discussed on prior calls, these nonrenewals are expected to reduce net premium return by approximately $250 million throughout 2026." > — Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Reinsurance Combined Ratio Arch Capital's reinsurance group's 76% combined ratio marks the fourth straight quarter of sub 80% combined ratios due to focus and disciplined underwriting. > "Our focus and disciplined underwriting led to the reinsurance group's 76% combined ratio marking the fourth straight quarter of sub 80% combined ratios." > — Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Reinsurance Market Dynamics In Arch Capital's reinsurance segment, strong industry results and new capacity are putting downward pressure on property catastrophe and moderating the push for needed rate increases in some casualty lines. > "Strong industry results over the past few years and attracted significant new capacity from traditional markets and third-party capital, resulting in a broadly competitive environment, its additional supply continues to put downward pressure on property catastrophe in short-term rates while also moderating the push for needed rate increases in some casualty lines." > — Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Profitability Focus Arch Capital remains focused on profitability over volume despite increasing competitive pressures. > "Overall, market conditions remained favorable. However, top line growth in the segment was essentially flat in the quarter, reflecting our focus on profitability over volume as competitive pressures increase." > — Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Capital Deployment Arch Capital views repurchasing shares as an attractive use of excess capital when organic opportunities do not meet the return threshold, reflecting the company's conviction in the intrinsic value of the franchise. > "When organic opportunities do not meet our return threshold, we view repurchasing our shares as an attractive use of excess capital, reflecting our conviction in the intrinsic value of the franchise." > — Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-12.3%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (52.1%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (26.3%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.2B, 147.5× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.2 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (50%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +10.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 43 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +10.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +10.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 43.2 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $96 — hisse %2.1 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $93 — hisse %0.8 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -26% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.58 | $2.30 | BEAT | -0.6% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.77 | $2.26 | BEAT | -1.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.98 | $2.59 | BEAT | +1.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.50 | $2.48 | +0.8% EPS | -4.5% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $2.50 vs $2.48 est^[FMP], +0.8% beat. D+1 movement: -4.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.45 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.45^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $104^{[FMP target]}; high target $114^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.45 + CapEx < $8.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.45^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $8.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $94^[FMP] and median $104^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.38 or CapEx ≥ $8.0M** Threshold: EPS < $2.38^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $94 below SMA200 $93^[FMP], if rejection continues, $79^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.50 vs $2.48 beat^[FMP], stock -4.5% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $8.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 26.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $104 (+10.9% upside vs current $94) - **High / Low:** $114 / $93 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 10 / 9 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 34 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. profitability_focus **Claim:** Arch Capital remains focused on profitability over volume despite increasing competitive pressures. **Evidence (transcript):** "Overall, market conditions remained favorable. However, top line growth in the segment was essentially flat in the quarter, reflecting our focus on profitability over volume as competitive pressures increase." **Numbers:** — ### 2. middle_market_impact **Claim:** Arch Capital chose not to renew certain program business acquired in the middle market commercial transaction that did not align with our risk appetite or meet our profitability requirements, which is expected to reduce net premium return by approximately $250 million throughout 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We also chose not to renew certain program business acquired in the middle market commercial transaction that did not align with our risk appetite or meet our profitability requirements. As we have discussed on prior calls, these nonrenewals are expected to reduce net premium return by approximately $250 million throughout 2026." **Numbers:** $250 million, 2026 ### 3. reinsurance_market_dynamics **Claim:** In Arch Capital's reinsurance segment, strong industry results and new capacity are putting downward pressure on property catastrophe and moderating the push for needed rate increases in some casualty lines. **Evidence (transcript):** "Strong industry results over the past few years and attracted significant new capacity from traditional markets and third-party capital, resulting in a broadly competitive environment, its additional supply continues to put downward pressure on property catastrophe in short-term rates while also moderating the push for needed rate increases in some casualty lines." **Numbers:** — ### 4. reinsurance_combined_ratio **Claim:** Arch Capital's reinsurance group's 76% combined ratio marks the fourth straight quarter of sub 80% combined ratios due to focus and disciplined underwriting. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our focus and disciplined underwriting led to the reinsurance group's 76% combined ratio marking the fourth straight quarter of sub 80% combined ratios." **Numbers:** 76%, 80% ### 5. capital_deployment **Claim:** Arch Capital views repurchasing shares as an attractive use of excess capital when organic opportunities do not meet the return threshold, reflecting the company's conviction in the intrinsic value of the franchise. **Evidence (transcript):** "When organic opportunities do not meet our return threshold, we view repurchasing our shares as an attractive use of excess capital, reflecting our conviction in the intrinsic value of the franchise." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*