--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/adbe last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:02:50.083Z --- # Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-11 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T10:02:49.074Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $250.71 (▲ 1.87%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $101.3B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $224.13 – $422.95 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 11 Jun | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $5.83 (+15% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $6.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $340 (+35.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 61/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Adobe Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $6.5B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $5.83^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 61 = MoonshotScore 61^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Aep Genstudio Growth AEP and apps as well as Adobe GenStudio ending ARR grew over 30% year-over-year in Q1. > "In Q1, globally, we achieved over 30% year-over-year growth in AEP and apps as well as Adobe GenStudio ending ARR." > — Shantanu Narayen, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Acrobat Express Mau Growth Acrobat and Express MAU grew approximately 20% year-over-year. > "Acrobat and Express MAU grew approximately 20% year-over-year." > — Daniel Durn, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Acrobat Ai Assistant Arr Growth Acrobat AI Assistant ARR grew approximately 3x year-over-year > "Acrobat AI Assistant ARR grew approximately 3x year-over-year" > — Daniel Durn, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Ai First Arr Growth ARR from Adobe's AI-first offerings more than tripled year-over-year. > "Our new AI-first offerings ending ARR more than tripled year-over-year, reflecting progress against this opportunity with individuals and enterprises alike." > — Shantanu Narayen, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Firefly Arr Exceeds $250m Firefly ending ARR across Firefly app, Firefly credit packs and Firefly Enterprise exceeded $250 million. > "Firefly ending ARR across Firefly app, Firefly credit packs and Firefly Enterprise exceeded $250 million." > — Daniel Durn, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 4.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+8.9%) | | Gross Margin | 9.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (89.1%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (37.8%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.9B, 78.9× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | high R&D intensity (17.9%, aggressive) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 53.5 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (43% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +35.6% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 54 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +35.6% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +35.6% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 53.5 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $251 — hisse %0.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $314 — hisse %20.2 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -11% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $5.06 | $4.97 | BEAT | -5.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $5.31 | $5.18 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.45 | $5.40 | MISS | -2.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $6.06 | $5.87 | +3.2% EPS | -7.6% | Q1 (March 12, 2026): EPS $6.06 vs $5.87 est^[FMP], +3.2% beat. D+1 movement: -7.6%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $5.83 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $5.83^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $340^{[FMP target]}; high target $450^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $5.83 + CapEx < $37.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $5.83^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $37.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $251^[FMP] and median $340^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $5.66 or CapEx ≥ $37.0M** Threshold: EPS < $5.66^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $251 below SMA200 $314^[FMP], if rejection continues, $267^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $6.06 vs $5.87 beat^[FMP], stock -7.6% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $37.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 37.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $340 (+35.6% upside vs current $251) - **High / Low:** $450 / $220 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 17 / 19 / 4 - **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 173 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. ai_first_arr_growth **Claim:** ARR from Adobe's AI-first offerings more than tripled year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our new AI-first offerings ending ARR more than tripled year-over-year, reflecting progress against this opportunity with individuals and enterprises alike." **Numbers:** three ### 2. aep_genstudio_growth **Claim:** AEP and apps as well as Adobe GenStudio ending ARR grew over 30% year-over-year in Q1. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Q1, globally, we achieved over 30% year-over-year growth in AEP and apps as well as Adobe GenStudio ending ARR." **Numbers:** 30% ### 3. firefly_arr_exceeds_$250m **Claim:** Firefly ending ARR across Firefly app, Firefly credit packs and Firefly Enterprise exceeded $250 million. **Evidence (transcript):** "Firefly ending ARR across Firefly app, Firefly credit packs and Firefly Enterprise exceeded $250 million." **Numbers:** $250 million ### 4. acrobat_express_mau_growth **Claim:** Acrobat and Express MAU grew approximately 20% year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Acrobat and Express MAU grew approximately 20% year-over-year." **Numbers:** 20% ### 5. acrobat_ai_assistant_arr_growth **Claim:** Acrobat AI Assistant ARR grew approximately 3x year-over-year **Evidence (transcript):** "Acrobat AI Assistant ARR grew approximately 3x year-over-year" **Numbers:** 3x --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*