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# Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T21:32:55.807Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

---

## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $249.43 (▲ 0.76%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $52.6B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $214.10 – $329.09 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 21 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $2.84 (+24% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $1.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $345 (+38.3% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 73/100 | derived |
| Council | 5/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## Autodesk, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$1.9B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$2.84</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 8 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 73

= MoonshotScore <strong>73</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>5/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Operating Margin Expansion

Autodesk is making good progress on the optimization phase of its sales and marketing efficiency plan and is set to expand its operating margin over time.

> "We are making good progress and are on track to realize its expected benefits. These efficiency gains, combined with inherent operating leverage set us up well to expand our operating margin over time."
> — Janesh Moorjani, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Fy26 Guidance Increase

Autodesk raised its full-year revenue and billings guidance due to strong second-quarter results and performance in the first half of the year.

> "As a result, we are raising our guidance for the full year."
> — Andrew Anagnost, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Autodesk Ai Vision

Autodesk aims to disrupt long-standing technology paradigms in AI by creating industry-specific foundation models and products, combining spatial and physical reasoning with deep industry knowledge.

> "By combining our own spatial and physical reasoning with deep industry-specific knowledge, Autodesk AI will move beyond traditional, deterministic and rule-based parametric CAD kernels to deliver adaptive and context aware, AI-driven CAD engines."
> — Andrew Anagnost, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Share Buyback Increase

Autodesk is focused on enhancing shareholder value by increasing its share repurchase program as its free cash flow grows.

> "We remain focused on executing our established strategic priorities in cloud, platform and AI, optimizing our sales and marketing to drive higher operating margins and allocating capital to organic investments, targeted and tuck-in acquisitions and continuing our share repurchase program as our free cash flow grows."
> — Andrew Anagnost, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 5. Aeco Strength

Autodesk saw strength in AECO where our customers are benefiting from sustained investment in data centers, infrastructure and industrial buildings.

> "We saw strength in AECO where our customers are benefiting from sustained investment in data centers, infrastructure and industrial buildings, which is more than offsetting softness in commercial."
> — Janesh Moorjani, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+19.8%) |
| Gross Margin | 9.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (92.7%, software/cloud territory) |
| Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (27.1%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.0B, 40.2× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | very high R&D (22.8%, margin pressure risk) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 58.8 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (88%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +38.3% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 59 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +38.3% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +38.3% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 58.8 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $242 — hisse %3.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $280 — hisse %10.9 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** +23%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 | $2.29 | $2.15 | BEAT | +0.1% |
| Q2 FY26 | $2.62 | $2.45 | BEAT | +9.1% |
| Q3 FY26 | $2.67 | $2.50 | BEAT | +2.4% |
| Q4 FY26 | $2.85 | $2.65 | +7.5% EPS | +5.3% |

Q2 (August 28, 2025): EPS $2.85 vs $2.65 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +7.5% beat. D+1 movement: +5.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $2.84 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $2.84<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $345<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $380<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $2.84 + CapEx < $24.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.84<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $24.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $249<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $345<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $2.75 or CapEx ≥ $24.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $2.75<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $249 below SMA200 $280<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $238<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q2: EPS $2.85 vs $2.65 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +5.3% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $24.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q2 op margin 27.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $345 (+38.3% upside vs current $249)
- **High / Low:** $380 / $279
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 29 / 4 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 108 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. fy26_guidance_increase

**Claim:** Autodesk raised its full-year revenue and billings guidance due to strong second-quarter results and performance in the first half of the year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As a result, we are raising our guidance for the full year."

**Numbers:** —

### 2. aeco_strength

**Claim:** Autodesk saw strength in AECO where our customers are benefiting from sustained investment in data centers, infrastructure and industrial buildings.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We saw strength in AECO where our customers are benefiting from sustained investment in data centers, infrastructure and industrial buildings, which is more than offsetting softness in commercial."

**Numbers:** —

### 3. operating_margin_expansion

**Claim:** Autodesk is making good progress on the optimization phase of its sales and marketing efficiency plan and is set to expand its operating margin over time.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We are making good progress and are on track to realize its expected benefits. These efficiency gains, combined with inherent operating leverage set us up well to expand our operating margin over time."

**Numbers:** —

### 4. share_buyback_increase

**Claim:** Autodesk is focused on enhancing shareholder value by increasing its share repurchase program as its free cash flow grows.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We remain focused on executing our established strategic priorities in cloud, platform and AI, optimizing our sales and marketing to drive higher operating margins and allocating capital to organic investments, targeted and tuck-in acquisitions and continuing our share repurchase program as our free cash flow grows."

**Numbers:** —

### 5. autodesk_ai_vision

**Claim:** Autodesk aims to disrupt long-standing technology paradigms in AI by creating industry-specific foundation models and products, combining spatial and physical reasoning with deep industry knowledge.

**Evidence (transcript):** "By combining our own spatial and physical reasoning with deep industry-specific knowledge, Autodesk AI will move beyond traditional, deterministic and rule-based parametric CAD kernels to deliver adaptive and context aware, AI-driven CAD engines."

**Numbers:** —


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*