--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/aep last_updated: 2026-05-05T19:53:28.382Z --- # American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T19:53:27.944Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $137.40 (▲ 2.03%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $74.7B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $97.46 – $139.44 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.59 (+11% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $5.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $137 (-0.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 50/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## American Electric Power Company, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $5.5B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.59^{[FMP est]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 50 = MoonshotScore 50^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Earnings Growth Rate AEP expects a 7% to 9% operating earnings growth rate from 2026 through 2030, with the long-term operating earnings CAGR now expected to be greater than 9%. > "Especially in light of the exceptional load expansion we are seeing, today, we are also reaffirming our premium operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% for 2026 through 2030. The $6 billion increase to our capital plan is driven by transmission and generation projects that come online later in the next 5 years. These investments are expected to be accretive to earnings in the back end of the plan and increase our expected long-term operating earnings CAGR to now greater than 9%." > — William Fehrman, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Load Growth Guidance AEP anticipates significant load growth, with a total of 63 gigawatts of incremental contracted load expected by 2030. > "AEP continues to experience substantial system demand concentrated largely in our key growth states of Indiana, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas. In the first quarter, we contracted an additional 7 gigawatts of load, coming mostly from AEP Texas and AEP Ohio. And we now have an incremental contracted total of 63 gigawatts expected by 2030." > — William Fehrman, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Generation Capital Outlook AEP has expanded its generation capital outlook by $3 billion to $24 billion through 2030 to support accelerating demand and long-term growth. > "As part of this effort, we have expanded our generation capital outlook by $3 billion to $24 billion through 2030, driven by new gas generation at I&M." > — William Fehrman, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Capital Plan Increase AEP has increased its 5-year capital plan to $78 billion, driving an expected 11% rate base CAGR. > "To support these projects, today, we are increasing our 5-year capital plan to $78 billion, up from the prior $72 billion, which now drives an expected 11% 5-year rate base CAGR." > — William Fehrman, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Transmission Investment AEP's transmission investment forecast now totals $33 billion, representing 42% of the overall $78 billion capital plan. > "With the addition of these projects, our transmission investment forecast now totals $33 billion, representing 42% of the overall $78 billion capital plan and underscoring our position in strengthening the nation's critical electric transmission backbone." > — William Fehrman, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Cost Offsets AEP is forecasting up to $16 billion in cost offsets for existing customers from their allocated contributions to expenses during the life of these agreements. > "With the large load contracts we have secured, we are forecasting up to $16 billion in cost offsets for existing customers from their allocated contributions to expenses during the life of these agreements." > — William Fehrman, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 9.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+18.3%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (64.8%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (22.6%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-1.3B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 61.0 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (54%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -0.7% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 61 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -0.7% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -0.7% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 61.0 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $133 — hisse %3.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $120 — hisse %14.2 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -80% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.43 | $1.27 | BEAT | -0.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.80 | $1.81 | MISS | -0.2% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.19 | $1.15 | BEAT | +2.8% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.64 | $1.57 | +4.5% EPS | no data | Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $1.64 vs $1.57 est^[FMP], +4.5% beat. D+1 movement: no data^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.59 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.59^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $137^{[FMP target]}; high target $150^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.59 + CapEx < $2.8B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.59^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $2.8B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $137^[FMP]^[FMP] and median $137. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.54 or CapEx ≥ $2.8B** Threshold: EPS < $1.54^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $137 below SMA200 $120^[FMP], if rejection continues, $102^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.64 vs $1.57 beat^[FMP], stock no data D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $2.8B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 22.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $137 (-0.7% upside vs current $137) - **High / Low:** $150 / $107 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 13 / 11 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 10 (last quarter), 64 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. load_growth_guidance **Claim:** AEP anticipates significant load growth, with a total of 63 gigawatts of incremental contracted load expected by 2030. **Evidence (transcript):** "AEP continues to experience substantial system demand concentrated largely in our key growth states of Indiana, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas. In the first quarter, we contracted an additional 7 gigawatts of load, coming mostly from AEP Texas and AEP Ohio. And we now have an incremental contracted total of 63 gigawatts expected by 2030." **Numbers:** 7, 63, 2030 ### 2. capital_plan_increase **Claim:** AEP has increased its 5-year capital plan to $78 billion, driving an expected 11% rate base CAGR. **Evidence (transcript):** "To support these projects, today, we are increasing our 5-year capital plan to $78 billion, up from the prior $72 billion, which now drives an expected 11% 5-year rate base CAGR." **Numbers:** 78, 72, 11, 5 ### 3. earnings_growth_rate **Claim:** AEP expects a 7% to 9% operating earnings growth rate from 2026 through 2030, with the long-term operating earnings CAGR now expected to be greater than 9%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Especially in light of the exceptional load expansion we are seeing, today, we are also reaffirming our premium operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% for 2026 through 2030. The $6 billion increase to our capital plan is driven by transmission and generation projects that come online later in the next 5 years. These investments are expected to be accretive to earnings in the back end of the plan and increase our expected long-term operating earnings CAGR to now greater than 9%." **Numbers:** 7, 9, 2026, 2030, 6, 5, 9 ### 4. transmission_investment **Claim:** AEP's transmission investment forecast now totals $33 billion, representing 42% of the overall $78 billion capital plan. **Evidence (transcript):** "With the addition of these projects, our transmission investment forecast now totals $33 billion, representing 42% of the overall $78 billion capital plan and underscoring our position in strengthening the nation's critical electric transmission backbone." **Numbers:** 33, 42, 78 ### 5. generation_capital_outlook **Claim:** AEP has expanded its generation capital outlook by $3 billion to $24 billion through 2030 to support accelerating demand and long-term growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "As part of this effort, we have expanded our generation capital outlook by $3 billion to $24 billion through 2030, driven by new gas generation at I&M." **Numbers:** 3, 24, 2030 ### 6. cost_offsets **Claim:** AEP is forecasting up to $16 billion in cost offsets for existing customers from their allocated contributions to expenses during the life of these agreements. **Evidence (transcript):** "With the large load contracts we have secured, we are forecasting up to $16 billion in cost offsets for existing customers from their allocated contributions to expenses during the life of these agreements." **Numbers:** 16 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*