--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ajg last_updated: 2026-05-05T21:06:20.963Z --- # Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T21:06:20.651Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $205.80 (▼ -0.59%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $52.9B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $195.00 – $351.23 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.87 (+23% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $282 (+37.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 63/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $4.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.87^{[FMP est]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 63 = MoonshotScore 63^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Organic Growth Outlook AJG maintains its full year 2026 organic growth outlook of 6%. > "This gives us confidence in the durability of our results and provides further confidence in our 2026 full year organic growth outlook of 6%." > — J. Gallagher, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Brokerage Organic Growth AJG's Brokerage organic growth was 5%, in line with March IR Day expectations. > "Brokerage organic at 5%, right in line with our March IR Day expectations." > — Douglas Howell, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Assuredpartners Integration AJG states that the integration of AssuredPartners is on plan and the cultural alignment has been strong. > "As for the AssuredPartners acquisition, we are following our proven integration playbook developed from doing over 750 mergers over the last 20 years. We are on plan without exception. The cultural alignment has been exactly what we expected, a culture with a strong client-first mindset and a genuine excitement for leveraging our expertise, tools and capabilities." > — J. Gallagher, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. M&A Pipeline AJG has an M&A pipeline with over 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $400 million of annualized revenues. > "Looking at our pipeline, we have over 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $400 million of annualized revenues." > — J. Gallagher, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Risk Management Performance AJG's Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett, had an excellent quarter with 10% organic growth and a 130 basis points increase in adjusted EBITDAC margin. > "Risk Management showed continuous compensation and operating expense ratio improvement, leading to an adjusted EBITDAC margin up 130 basis points." > — Douglas Howell, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+47.7%) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (84.9%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (25.6%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.7B, 18.0× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 35.5 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (64%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +37.0% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 35 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +37.0% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 2/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +37.0% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 35.5 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $217 — hisse %5.0 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $257 — hisse %20.0 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -17% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.33 | $2.36 | MISS | -1.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.32 | $2.51 | MISS | -4.8% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.38 | $2.35 | BEAT | +1.4% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.47 | $4.43 | +0.9% EPS | +0.8% | Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $4.47 vs $4.43 est^[FMP], +0.9% beat. D+1 movement: +0.8%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.87 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.87^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $282^{[FMP target]}; high target $334^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.87 + CapEx < $39.6M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.87^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $39.6M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $206^[FMP] and median $282^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.78 or CapEx ≥ $39.6M** Threshold: EPS < $2.78^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $206 below SMA200 $257^[FMP], if rejection continues, $219^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $4.47 vs $4.43 beat^[FMP], stock +0.8% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $39.6M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 25.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $282 (+37.0% upside vs current $206) - **High / Low:** $334 / $211 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 8 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 60 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. organic_growth_outlook **Claim:** AJG maintains its full year 2026 organic growth outlook of 6%. **Evidence (transcript):** "This gives us confidence in the durability of our results and provides further confidence in our 2026 full year organic growth outlook of 6%." **Numbers:** 6% ### 2. M&A_pipeline **Claim:** AJG has an M&A pipeline with over 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $400 million of annualized revenues. **Evidence (transcript):** "Looking at our pipeline, we have over 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $400 million of annualized revenues." **Numbers:** 40, $400 million ### 3. assuredpartners_integration **Claim:** AJG states that the integration of AssuredPartners is on plan and the cultural alignment has been strong. **Evidence (transcript):** "As for the AssuredPartners acquisition, we are following our proven integration playbook developed from doing over 750 mergers over the last 20 years. We are on plan without exception. The cultural alignment has been exactly what we expected, a culture with a strong client-first mindset and a genuine excitement for leveraging our expertise, tools and capabilities." **Numbers:** 750, 20 ### 4. ai_deployment **Claim:** AJG anticipates AI to be minimally disruptive to selling insurance, providing consulting services, and managing claims, and states that AI should accelerate growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "First, we expect AI to be minimally disruptive when it comes to selling insurance, providing consulting services and managing claims. Our business is advisory-led, complex and relationship-driven. Second, AI actually should accelerate our growth." **Numbers:** — ### 5. brokerage_organic_growth **Claim:** AJG's Brokerage organic growth was 5%, in line with March IR Day expectations. **Evidence (transcript):** "Brokerage organic at 5%, right in line with our March IR Day expectations." **Numbers:** 5% ### 6. risk_management_performance **Claim:** AJG's Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett, had an excellent quarter with 10% organic growth and a 130 basis points increase in adjusted EBITDAC margin. **Evidence (transcript):** "Risk Management showed continuous compensation and operating expense ratio improvement, leading to an adjusted EBITDAC margin up 130 basis points." **Numbers:** 130 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*