--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/alle last_updated: 2026-05-09T15:35:53.520Z --- # Allegion plc (ALLE) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T15:35:53.110Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $134.37 (▼ -1.78%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $11.5B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $131.22 – $183.11 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 23 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.22 (+9% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $173 (+28.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 40/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Allegion plc — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.22^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 40 = MoonshotScore 40^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Revenue Growth Outlook Allegion is raising its reported revenue outlook to 6% to 8% to include the DCI acquisition, while affirming its organic revenue growth outlook of 2% to 4% and adjusted earnings per share outlook of $8.70 to $8.90. > "we are raising our reported revenue outlook to 6% to 8% to include the DCI acquisition, and we are affirming our outlook for organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% and adjusted earnings per share of $8.70 to $8.90." > — John Stone, President and Chief Executive Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Inflation Impact Offset We anticipate an incremental headwind of approximately 1% of COGS from tariffs and other inflation. We expect to offset this on a dollar basis through a combination of price and cost actions. However, given current volatility, we are not updating our organic growth assumptions to include any incremental price at this time, similar to our approach in the first quarter of 2025. Most importantly, we expect this to be neutral to 2026 adjusted operating income dollars and earnings per share. > "Based on current conditions, we anticipate an incremental headwind of approximately 1% of COGS from tariffs and other inflation. We expect to offset this on a dollar basis through a combination of price and cost actions. However, given current volatility, we are not updating our organic growth assumptions to include any incremental price at this time, similar to our approach in the first quarter of 2025. Most importantly, we expect this to be neutral to 2026 adjusted operating income dollars and earnings per share." > — John Stone, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Americas Nonres Growth Our nonresidential business increased mid-single digits organically, driven by price realization, as residential markets remain soft. > "Our nonresidential business increased mid-single digits organically, driven by price realization." > — Michael Wagnes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. International Erp Impact Organic revenue declines were the result of volume weaknesses in our mechanical business, primarily related to the ERP disruptions John discussed earlier. > "Organic revenue declines were the result of volume weaknesses in our mechanical business, primarily related to the ERP disruptions John discussed earlier." > — Michael Wagnes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 1.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+1.1%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (44.0%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (18.9%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.1B, 3.8× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 38.2 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (38% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +28.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 38 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +28.4% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +28.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 38.2 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $145 — hisse %7.1 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $162 — hisse %17.0 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -30% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.04 | $1.99 | BEAT | +1.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.30 | $2.21 | BEAT | -2.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.94 | $2.01 | MISS | -0.0% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.80 | $1.88 | +-4.3% EPS | -0.4% | Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $1.80 vs $1.88 est^[FMP], +-4.3% beat. D+1 movement: -0.4%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.22 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.22^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $173^{[FMP target]}; high target $180^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.22 + CapEx < $21.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.22^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $21.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $134^[FMP] and median $173^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.15 or CapEx ≥ $21.0M** Threshold: EPS < $2.15^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $134 below SMA200 $162^[FMP], if rejection continues, $138^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.80 vs $1.88 beat^[FMP], stock -0.4% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $21.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 18.9%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $173 (+28.4% upside vs current $134) - **High / Low:** $180 / $165 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 5 / 8 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 1 (last quarter), 13 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. revenue_growth_outlook **Claim:** Allegion is raising its reported revenue outlook to 6% to 8% to include the DCI acquisition, while affirming its organic revenue growth outlook of 2% to 4% and adjusted earnings per share outlook of $8.70 to $8.90. **Evidence (transcript):** "we are raising our reported revenue outlook to 6% to 8% to include the DCI acquisition, and we are affirming our outlook for organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% and adjusted earnings per share of $8.70 to $8.90." **Numbers:** 6%, 8%, 2%, 4%, $8.70, $8.90 ### 2. americas_nonres_growth **Claim:** Our nonresidential business increased mid-single digits organically, driven by price realization, as residential markets remain soft. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our nonresidential business increased mid-single digits organically, driven by price realization." **Numbers:** — ### 3. international_erp_impact **Claim:** Organic revenue declines were the result of volume weaknesses in our mechanical business, primarily related to the ERP disruptions John discussed earlier. **Evidence (transcript):** "Organic revenue declines were the result of volume weaknesses in our mechanical business, primarily related to the ERP disruptions John discussed earlier." **Numbers:** — ### 4. inflation_impact_offset **Claim:** We anticipate an incremental headwind of approximately 1% of COGS from tariffs and other inflation. We expect to offset this on a dollar basis through a combination of price and cost actions. However, given current volatility, we are not updating our organic growth assumptions to include any incremental price at this time, similar to our approach in the first quarter of 2025. Most importantly, we expect this to be neutral to 2026 adjusted operating income dollars and earnings per share. **Evidence (transcript):** "Based on current conditions, we anticipate an incremental headwind of approximately 1% of COGS from tariffs and other inflation. We expect to offset this on a dollar basis through a combination of price and cost actions. However, given current volatility, we are not updating our organic growth assumptions to include any incremental price at this time, similar to our approach in the first quarter of 2025. Most importantly, we expect this to be neutral to 2026 adjusted operating income dollars and earnings per share." **Numbers:** 1%, 2026, 2025 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*