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last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:49:14.558Z
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# Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-14 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:49:13.265Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $389.08 (▼ -1.37%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $308.8B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $151.51 – $420.50 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 14 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $2.66 (+11% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $7.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $433 (+11.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 57/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Applied Materials, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$7.7B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$2.66</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 8 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 57

= MoonshotScore <strong>57</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Cfe Ebeam Revenue Growth

Applied Materials expects cold field emission eBeam technology revenues to double this calendar year to more than $1 billion.

> "One example of this is our unique cold field emission eBeam technology where we expect revenues to double this calendar year to more than $1 billion and support process diagnostics and control, being one of our fastest-growing businesses in 2026."
> — Gary Dickerson, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Q2 Revenue Guidance

Applied Materials expects company revenue of $7.65 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which should be up around 9% sequentially.

> "We expect company revenue of $7.65 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which should be up around 9% sequentially."
> — Brice Hill, Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Ags Record Revenue

Applied Global Services (AGS) delivered record revenue of $1.56 billion, which exceeded expectations and grew 15% year-over-year.

> "Applied Global Services delivered record revenue of $1.56 billion, which exceeded our expectations and grew 15% year-over-year."
> — Brice Hill, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Semi Equipment Growth

Applied Materials expects to grow its semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year in 2026.

> "For Applied, we expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year."
> — Gary Dickerson, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Nand Equipment Demand

Applied Materials is forecasting modest growth in equipment demand in NAND in 2026 and expects NAND to remain less than 10% of wafer fab equipment spending.

> "In NAND, we are forecasting modest growth in equipment demand in 2026 and we expect NAND to remain less than 10% of wafer fab equipment spending."
> — Gary Dickerson, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-1.2%, contraction) |
| Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (49.0%) |
| Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (29.9%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF strong ($1.0B FCF, covers CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (12.9%) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 52.8 balanced, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (76%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +11.2% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 53 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +11.2% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +11.2% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 52.8 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50d MA:** $369 — hisse %5.3 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $269 — hisse %44.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -21%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $2.39 | $2.31 | BEAT | -5.3% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.48 | $2.36 | BEAT | -14.1% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.17 | $2.11 | BEAT | +0.8% |
| Q1 FY26 | $2.38 | $2.21 | +7.7% EPS | +8.1% |

Q1 (February 12, 2026): EPS $2.38 vs $2.21 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +7.7% beat. D+1 movement: +8.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $2.66 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $2.66<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $433<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $500<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $2.66 + CapEx < $646.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.66<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $646.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $389<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $433<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $2.58 or CapEx ≥ $646.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $2.58<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $389 below SMA200 $269<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $229<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $2.38 vs $2.21 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +8.1% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $646.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 29.9%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $433 (+11.2% upside vs current $389)
- **High / Low:** $500 / $290
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 29 / 9 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 16 (last quarter), 142 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. semi_equipment_growth

**Claim:** Applied Materials expects to grow its semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For Applied, we expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year."

**Numbers:** %20

### 2. cfe_ebeam_revenue_growth

**Claim:** Applied Materials expects cold field emission eBeam technology revenues to double this calendar year to more than $1 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "One example of this is our unique cold field emission eBeam technology where we expect revenues to double this calendar year to more than $1 billion and support process diagnostics and control, being one of our fastest-growing businesses in 2026."

**Numbers:** $1 billion, 2026

### 3. nand_equipment_demand

**Claim:** Applied Materials is forecasting modest growth in equipment demand in NAND in 2026 and expects NAND to remain less than 10% of wafer fab equipment spending.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In NAND, we are forecasting modest growth in equipment demand in 2026 and we expect NAND to remain less than 10% of wafer fab equipment spending."

**Numbers:** 2026, %10

### 4. icaps_equipment_demand

**Claim:** Applied Materials expects wafer fab equipment for ICAPS customers who serve the IoT, communications, automotive, power and sensor markets to be approximately flat year-on-year, both globally and in China.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In ICAPS, customers who serve the IoT, communications, automotive, power and sensor markets, we expect wafer fab equipment to be approximately flat year-on-year, both globally and in China."

**Numbers:** —

### 5. ags_record_revenue

**Claim:** Applied Global Services (AGS) delivered record revenue of $1.56 billion, which exceeded expectations and grew 15% year-over-year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Applied Global Services delivered record revenue of $1.56 billion, which exceeded our expectations and grew 15% year-over-year."

**Numbers:** $1.56 billion, 15%

### 6. q2_revenue_guidance

**Claim:** Applied Materials expects company revenue of $7.65 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which should be up around 9% sequentially.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect company revenue of $7.65 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which should be up around 9% sequentially."

**Numbers:** $7.65 billion, $500 million, 9%


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*