---
canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/amd
last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:37:04.778Z
---

# Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-05 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:37:03.615Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

---

## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $360.54 (▲ 1.71%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $587.8B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $96.88 – $362.79 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Tue 5 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $1.30 (+35% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $9.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $300 (-16.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 59/100 | derived |
| Council | 1/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived |

## Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$9.9B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$1.30</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 5 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 59

= MoonshotScore <strong>59</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>1/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Data Center Growth

AMD aims to grow data center segment revenue by more than 60% annually over the next three to five years, based on the strength of its EPYC and Instinct roadmaps.

> "Based on the strength of our EPYC and Instinct roadmaps, we are well-positioned to grow data center segment revenue by more than 60% annually, over the next three to five years and scale our AI business to tens of billions in annual revenue in 2027."
> — Lisa Su, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 2. Q1 2026 Guidance

AMD expects revenue to be approximately $9.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, including approximately $100 million of MI308 sales to China.

> "We expect revenue to be approximately $9.8 billion plus or minus $300 million including approximately $100 million of MI308 sales to China."
> — Jean Hu, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 3. Fy2025 Performance

AMD delivered record revenue of $34.6 billion in 2025, up 34%, and record earnings per share of $4.17.

> "Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. executed very well in 2025. Delivering record revenue of $34.6 billion, up 34% year over year, driven by 32% growth in our data center segment and 51% growth in our client and gaming segment. Gross margin was 52%. And we delivered record earnings per share of $4.17, up 26% year over year, continuing to invest aggressively in AI and the data center to support our long-term growth."
> — Jean Hu, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 4. Embedded Design Wins

AMD has secured over $50 billion in embedded design wins since acquiring Xilinx, with $17 billion in new design wins in 2025, up nearly 20% year over year.

> "We closed $17 billion in design wins in 2025, up nearly 20% year over year as we now won more than $50 billion of embedded designs since acquiring Xilinx."
> — Lisa Su, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 5. Instinct Adoption

Eight of the top 10 AI companies use Instinct GPUs to power production workloads.

> "Today, eight of the top 10 AI companies use Instinct to power production workloads across a growing range of use cases."
> — Lisa Su, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 6. Semi Custom Decline

AMD expects semi-custom SoC annual revenue to decline by a significant double-digit percentage in 2026 as it enters the seventh year of the console cycle.

> "For 2026, we expect semi-custom SoC annual revenue to decline by a significant double-digit percentage as we enter the seventh year of what has been a very strong console cycle."
> — Lisa Su, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+38.1%) |
| Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q4: high margin (54.3%) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (17.1%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.4B, 10.7× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | very high R&D (23.4%, margin pressure risk) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 79.8 overbought, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (73%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -16.8% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 80 |
| Klarman | bear | value · target upside -16.8% |
| Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 |
| Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -16.8% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Overvalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 79.8 — overbought (RSI 79.8) — geri çekilme baskısı
- **50d MA:** $235 — hisse %53.2 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $211 — hisse %70.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -26%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $0.96 | $0.94 | BEAT | +1.8% |
| Q2 FY25 | $0.48 | $0.48 | BEAT | -6.4% |
| Q3 FY25 | $1.20 | $1.17 | BEAT | +2.5% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1.53 | $1.32 | +15.9% EPS | -17.3% |

Q4 (February 3, 2026): EPS $1.53 vs $1.32 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +15.9% beat. D+1 movement: -17.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $1.30 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $1.30<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $300<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $380<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $1.30 + CapEx < $222.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.30<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $222.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $361<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $300<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $1.26 or CapEx ≥ $222.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $1.26<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $361 below SMA200 $211<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $180<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q4: EPS $1.53 vs $1.32 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -17.3% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25

### CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $222.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q4 op margin 17.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $300 (-16.8% upside vs current $361)
- **High / Low:** $380 / $230
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 36 / 13 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 218 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. data_center_growth

**Claim:** AMD aims to grow data center segment revenue by more than 60% annually over the next three to five years, based on the strength of its EPYC and Instinct roadmaps.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Based on the strength of our EPYC and Instinct roadmaps, we are well-positioned to grow data center segment revenue by more than 60% annually, over the next three to five years and scale our AI business to tens of billions in annual revenue in 2027."

**Numbers:** 60%, three to five years, 2027

### 2. instinct_adoption

**Claim:** Eight of the top 10 AI companies use Instinct GPUs to power production workloads.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Today, eight of the top 10 AI companies use Instinct to power production workloads across a growing range of use cases."

**Numbers:** 10, 8

### 3. semi_custom_decline

**Claim:** AMD expects semi-custom SoC annual revenue to decline by a significant double-digit percentage in 2026 as it enters the seventh year of the console cycle.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For 2026, we expect semi-custom SoC annual revenue to decline by a significant double-digit percentage as we enter the seventh year of what has been a very strong console cycle."

**Numbers:** 2026

### 4. embedded_design_wins

**Claim:** AMD has secured over $50 billion in embedded design wins since acquiring Xilinx, with $17 billion in new design wins in 2025, up nearly 20% year over year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We closed $17 billion in design wins in 2025, up nearly 20% year over year as we now won more than $50 billion of embedded designs since acquiring Xilinx."

**Numbers:** $17 billion, 20%, $50 billion, 2025

### 5. q1_2026_guidance

**Claim:** AMD expects revenue to be approximately $9.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, including approximately $100 million of MI308 sales to China.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect revenue to be approximately $9.8 billion plus or minus $300 million including approximately $100 million of MI308 sales to China."

**Numbers:** $9.8 billion, $300 million, $100 million, MI308, China

### 6. fy2025_performance

**Claim:** AMD delivered record revenue of $34.6 billion in 2025, up 34%, and record earnings per share of $4.17.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. executed very well in 2025. Delivering record revenue of $34.6 billion, up 34% year over year, driven by 32% growth in our data center segment and 51% growth in our client and gaming segment. Gross margin was 52%. And we delivered record earnings per share of $4.17, up 26% year over year, continuing to invest aggressively in AI and the data center to support our long-term growth."

**Numbers:** 34.6 billion, 34%, 32%, 51%, 52%, $4.17, 26%, 2025


---

*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*