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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/amzn
last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:21:22.713Z
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# Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:21:21.681Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $268.42 (▲ 1.27%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $2.89T | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $183.85 – $273.88 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $1.82 (+8% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $194.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $315 (+17.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Amazon.com, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$194.6B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$1.82</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 1 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 44

= MoonshotScore <strong>44</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Aws Growth Acceleration

AWS growth accelerated to 28%, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters.

> "Starting with AWS, growth continued to accelerate, up 28% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters, up $2 billion quarter-over-quarter, the largest Q4 to Q1 AWS revenue increase ever."
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Amazon Ads Growth

Amazon Ads generating $17.2 billion of revenue in the quarter and up 22% year-over-year.

> "We continue working to be the best place for brands of all sizes to grow their businesses, and we're pleased with the continued strong growth across our full funnel offerings, generating $17.2 billion of revenue in the quarter and up 22% year-over-year."
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Aws Ai Revenue Run Rate

In the first 3 years of this AI wave, AWS' AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion.

> "In the first 3 years of this AI wave, AWS' AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion, nearly 260x larger."
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Stores Unit Growth

Units grew 15% year-over-year, the highest we've seen since the tail end of COVID lockdowns.

> "Units grew 15% year-over-year, the highest we've seen since the tail end of COVID lockdowns."
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Aws Annual Revenue Run Rate

AWS is now a $150 billion annualized revenue run rate business.

> "AWS is now a $150 billion annualized revenue run rate business."
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 6. Trainium Commitments

And we now have over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium.

> "And we now have over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium."
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 4.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+8.2%) |
| Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (51.8%) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (13.1%) |
| Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-18.2B, external financing needed) |
| R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | high R&D intensity (15.5%, aggressive) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 78.1 overbought, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (93%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +17.4% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 78 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +17.4% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +17.4% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 78.1 — overbought (RSI 78.1) — geri çekilme baskısı
- **50d MA:** $225 — hisse %19.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $227 — hisse %18.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -3%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $1.68 | $1.31 | BEAT | -8.3% |
| Q3 FY25 | $1.95 | $1.57 | BEAT | +9.6% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1.95 | $1.97 | MISS | -5.6% |
| Q1 FY26 | $2.78 | $1.63 | +70.6% EPS | +0.8% |

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $2.78 vs $1.63 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +70.6% beat. D+1 movement: +0.8%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $1.82 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $1.82<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $315<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $333<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $1.82 + CapEx < $44.2B**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.82<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $44.2B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $268<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $315<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $1.77 or CapEx ≥ $44.2B**

Threshold: EPS < $1.77<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $268 below SMA200 $227<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $193<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.63 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +0.8% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>. Brian Olsavsky Q1 transcript: "Starting with AWS, growth continued to accelerate, up 28% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters, up $2 billion quarter-over-quarter, the largest Q4 to Q1 AWS revenue increase ever."<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.azureQuoteEn" title="Brian Olsavsky">[Brian Olsavsky]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $44.2B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Brian Olsavsky Q1 transcript: "Our cash CapEx was $43.2 billion in Q1. This primarily relates to AWS and generative AI as we invest to support strong customer demand."<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.capexQuoteEn" title="Brian Olsavsky transcript">[Brian Olsavsky transcript]</sup>. Q1 op margin 13.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $315 (+17.4% upside vs current $268)
- **High / Low:** $333 / $175
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 62 / 5 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 40 (last quarter), 335 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. aws_growth_acceleration

**Claim:** AWS growth accelerated to 28%, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Starting with AWS, growth continued to accelerate, up 28% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters, up $2 billion quarter-over-quarter, the largest Q4 to Q1 AWS revenue increase ever."

**Numbers:** 28%, 15, $2 billion

### 2. aws_annual_revenue_run_rate

**Claim:** AWS is now a $150 billion annualized revenue run rate business.

**Evidence (transcript):** "AWS is now a $150 billion annualized revenue run rate business."

**Numbers:** $150 billion

### 3. aws_ai_revenue_run_rate

**Claim:** In the first 3 years of this AI wave, AWS' AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In the first 3 years of this AI wave, AWS' AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion, nearly 260x larger."

**Numbers:** 3, $15 billion, 260

### 4. trainium_commitments

**Claim:** And we now have over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium.

**Evidence (transcript):** "And we now have over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium."

**Numbers:** $225 billion

### 5. stores_unit_growth

**Claim:** Units grew 15% year-over-year, the highest we've seen since the tail end of COVID lockdowns.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Units grew 15% year-over-year, the highest we've seen since the tail end of COVID lockdowns."

**Numbers:** 15%

### 6. amazon_ads_growth

**Claim:** Amazon Ads generating $17.2 billion of revenue in the quarter and up 22% year-over-year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We continue working to be the best place for brands of all sizes to grow their businesses, and we're pleased with the continued strong growth across our full funnel offerings, generating $17.2 billion of revenue in the quarter and up 22% year-over-year."

**Numbers:** $17.2 billion, 22%


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*