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# Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-05 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:00:27.484Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $172.70 (▼ -0.01%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $217.5B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $82.80 – $179.80 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Tue 5 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $0.81 (+25% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $2.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $185 (+6.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 76/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Arista Networks, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$2.6B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$0.81</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 8 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 76

= MoonshotScore <strong>76</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Ai Networking Revenue Guidance

Arista is doubling its AI networking revenue from 2025 to 2026 to $3,250,000,000.

> "With our increased visibility, we are now doubling from 2025 to 2026 to $3,250,000,000 in AI networking revenue."
> — Jayshree Ullal, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 2. Fy26 Revenue Growth

Arista is raising its fiscal year 2026 revenue growth outlook to 25%, targeting approximately $11.25 billion in revenue.

> "despite all the news on the mounting supply chain allocation, rising cost of memory, and silicon fabrication, we increased our 2026 guidance to 25% annual growth accelerating now to $11,250,000,000."
> — Jayshree Ullal, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 3. Campus Branch Revenue Goal

Arista is committed to its aggressive goal of $1,250,000,000 for 2026 for the cognitive campus and branch.

> "Looking ahead, we are committed to our aggressive goal of $1,250,000,000 for 2026 for the cognitive campus and branch."
> — Jayshree Ullal, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 4. Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance

Arista's guidance for the first quarter is as follows. Revenues of approximately $2,600,000,000

> "With all of this as a backdrop, our guidance for the first quarter is as follows. Revenues of approximately $2,600,000,000"
> — Chantelle Breithaupt, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 5. Cloud Ai Titans Contribution

Shifting to annual customer sector revenue for 2025, cloud and AI titans contributed significantly at 48%.

> "Shifting to annual customer sector revenue for 2025, cloud and AI titans contributed significantly at 48%."
> — Jayshree Ullal, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 6. Customer Concentration

We had two greater than 10% customer concentration in 2025. Customer A and B drove 16–20% of our overall business.

> "We had two greater than 10% customer concentration in 2025. Customer A and B drove 16–20% of our overall business."
> — Jayshree Ullal, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+24.1%) |
| Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q4: high margin (62.9%) |
| Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (41.5%, scale leverage) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.2B, 33.1× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (13.7%) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 65.2 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (90%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +6.8% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 65 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +6.8% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +6.8% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 65.2 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $143 — hisse %20.9 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $138 — hisse %25.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** +5%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $0.65 | $0.59 | BEAT | -4.8% |
| Q2 FY25 | $0.73 | $0.65 | BEAT | +17.5% |
| Q3 FY25 | $0.75 | $0.72 | BEAT | -8.6% |
| Q4 FY25 | $0.82 | $0.76 | +8.2% EPS | +4.8% |

Q4 (February 12, 2026): EPS $0.82 vs $0.76 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +8.2% beat. D+1 movement: +4.8%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $0.81 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $0.81<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $185<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $200<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $0.81 + CapEx < $37.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.81<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $37.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $173<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $185<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $0.79 or CapEx ≥ $37.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $0.79<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $173 below SMA200 $138<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $117<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q4: EPS $0.82 vs $0.76 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +4.8% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25

### CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $37.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q4 op margin 41.5%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $185 (+6.8% upside vs current $173)
- **High / Low:** $200 / $175
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 27 / 3 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 10 (last quarter), 72 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. fy26_revenue_growth

**Claim:** Arista is raising its fiscal year 2026 revenue growth outlook to 25%, targeting approximately $11.25 billion in revenue.

**Evidence (transcript):** "despite all the news on the mounting supply chain allocation, rising cost of memory, and silicon fabrication, we increased our 2026 guidance to 25% annual growth accelerating now to $11,250,000,000."

**Numbers:** %25, $11,250,000,000

### 2. ai_networking_revenue_guidance

**Claim:** Arista is doubling its AI networking revenue from 2025 to 2026 to $3,250,000,000.

**Evidence (transcript):** "With our increased visibility, we are now doubling from 2025 to 2026 to $3,250,000,000 in AI networking revenue."

**Numbers:** 2025, 2026, $3,250,000,000

### 3. campus_branch_revenue_goal

**Claim:** Arista is committed to its aggressive goal of $1,250,000,000 for 2026 for the cognitive campus and branch.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Looking ahead, we are committed to our aggressive goal of $1,250,000,000 for 2026 for the cognitive campus and branch."

**Numbers:** $1,250,000,000, 2026

### 4. cloud_ai_titans_contribution

**Claim:** Shifting to annual customer sector revenue for 2025, cloud and AI titans contributed significantly at 48%.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Shifting to annual customer sector revenue for 2025, cloud and AI titans contributed significantly at 48%."

**Numbers:** 2025, %48

### 5. customer_concentration

**Claim:** We had two greater than 10% customer concentration in 2025. Customer A and B drove 16–20% of our overall business.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We had two greater than 10% customer concentration in 2025. Customer A and B drove 16–20% of our overall business."

**Numbers:** 10%, 2025, 16–20%

### 6. q1_2026_revenue_guidance

**Claim:** Arista's guidance for the first quarter is as follows. Revenues of approximately $2,600,000,000

**Evidence (transcript):** "With all of this as a backdrop, our guidance for the first quarter is as follows. Revenues of approximately $2,600,000,000"

**Numbers:** $2,600,000,000


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*