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last_updated: 2026-05-05T20:06:40.734Z
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# Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:06:40.324Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $130.26 (▲ 0.83%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $75.1B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $99.56 – $157.28 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Wed 6 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $1.90 (+4% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $5.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $154 (+17.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 60/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Apollo Global Management, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$5.2B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$1.90</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 3 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 60

= MoonshotScore <strong>60</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. FRE Growth Outlook 2026

Apollo anticipates FRE growth of over 20% in 2026.

> "We previously communicated, we expect FRE to grow by 20% plus, with 75% of the revenue contribution coming from well-established core businesses such as asset-backed finance, direct lending, multi-credit, and hybrid, as well as the annualization of growth already in the ground."
> — Martin Kelly, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 2. SRE Growth Outlook 2026

Apollo anticipates 10% SRE growth in 2026.

> "For SRE, we anticipate 10% growth and assuming an 11% alts return, or approximately $3.85 billion in 2026."
> — Martin Kelly, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 3. Origination Volume Growth

Apollo's asset origination exceeded $305 billion, up nearly 40% from the prior year.

> "As Marc noted, we originated over $305 billion of assets, up nearly 40% from the prior year."
> — James Zelter, President, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 4. ADS Performance

Apollo's largest private markets direct lending vehicle, ADS, generated approximately 8% return for the quarter and for the year.

> "To give you a sense of how this principal mindset plays out, take our largest private markets direct lending vehicle, ADS, now more than $25 billion. For the quarter and for the year, approximately 8% return."
> — Marc Rowan, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 5. Athene Defensive Positioning

Athene has positioned defensively rather than reaching for spread, building a $24 billion position of cash, treasuries, and agencies.

> "At Athene, while others have reached for spread, we have been positioned defensively. We've built a $24 billion position of cash, treasuries, and agencies."
> — Marc Rowan, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+46.3%) |
| Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (69.7%, software/cloud territory) |
| Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (52.6%, scale leverage) |
| Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF very strong ($2.8B, 2819000000.0× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 66.7 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (70%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +17.8% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 67 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +17.8% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +17.8% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 66.7 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $114 — hisse %14.3 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $130 — hisse %0.1 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** -75%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $1.82 | $1.84 | MISS | -1.0% |
| Q2 FY25 | $1.92 | $1.84 | BEAT | +0.2% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.14 | $1.90 | BEAT | +2.5% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.47 | $2.04 | +21.1% EPS | -1.1% |

Q4 (February 9, 2026): EPS $2.47 vs $2.04 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +21.1% beat. D+1 movement: -1.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $1.90 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $1.90<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $154<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $186<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $1.90 + CapEx < $0**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.90<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $0<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $130<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $154<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $1.84 or CapEx ≥ $0**

Threshold: EPS < $1.84<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $130<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup> below SMA200 $130, if rejection continues, $111<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q4: EPS $2.47 vs $2.04 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -1.1% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25

### CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $0<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q4 op margin 52.6%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $154 (+17.8% upside vs current $130)
- **High / Low:** $186 / $136
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 6 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 2 (last quarter), 43 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. FRE_growth_outlook_2026

**Claim:** Apollo anticipates FRE growth of over 20% in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We previously communicated, we expect FRE to grow by 20% plus, with 75% of the revenue contribution coming from well-established core businesses such as asset-backed finance, direct lending, multi-credit, and hybrid, as well as the annualization of growth already in the ground."

**Numbers:** 20%, 75%

### 2. SRE_growth_outlook_2026

**Claim:** Apollo anticipates 10% SRE growth in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For SRE, we anticipate 10% growth and assuming an 11% alts return, or approximately $3.85 billion in 2026."

**Numbers:** 10%, 11%, $3.85

### 3. capital_formation_diversification

**Claim:** Apollo's capital formation is diversifying across six pockets of demand, from institutional investors to wealth and retirement services.

**Evidence (transcript):** "The scaling that we have seen in capital formation has been driven by moving from a sole source of demand, as Marc mentioned, the alts buckets with institutions, to six pockets of demand with new sources including fixed income replacement, wealth, third-party insurance, traditional asset managers, and 401(k)s."

**Numbers:** —

### 4. origination_volume_growth

**Claim:** Apollo's asset origination exceeded $305 billion, up nearly 40% from the prior year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As Marc noted, we originated over $305 billion of assets, up nearly 40% from the prior year."

**Numbers:** $305, 40%

### 5. ADS_performance

**Claim:** Apollo's largest private markets direct lending vehicle, ADS, generated approximately 8% return for the quarter and for the year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "To give you a sense of how this principal mindset plays out, take our largest private markets direct lending vehicle, ADS, now more than $25 billion. For the quarter and for the year, approximately 8% return."

**Numbers:** 8%, $25

### 6. Athene_defensive_positioning

**Claim:** Athene has positioned defensively rather than reaching for spread, building a $24 billion position of cash, treasuries, and agencies.

**Evidence (transcript):** "At Athene, while others have reached for spread, we have been positioned defensively. We've built a $24 billion position of cash, treasuries, and agencies."

**Numbers:** $24


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*