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last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:22:43.635Z
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# AppLovin Corporation (APP) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:22:42.362Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $460.00 (▲ 3.06%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $154.7B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $290.96 – $745.61 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Wed 6 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $3.40 (+104% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $1.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $675 (+46.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 77/100 | derived |
| Council | 5/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## AppLovin Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$1.8B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$3.40</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 8 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 77

= MoonshotScore <strong>77</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>5/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance

AppLovin expects revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion for the first quarter of 2026, representing 5% to 7% sequential growth.

> "We expect revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion, representing 5% to 7% sequential growth."
> — Matt Stumpf, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 2. Q1 2026 EBITDA Margin Guidance

AppLovin expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84% for the first quarter of 2026.

> "Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.465 billion and $1.495 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84%, maintaining best-in-class profitability as we continue to scale."
> — Matt Stumpf, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 3. Share Repurchase Program

For the full year, AppLovin repurchased and withheld approximately 6.4 million shares for a total of $2.58 billion.

> "For the full year, we repurchased and withheld approximately 6.4 million shares for a total of $2.58 billion, funded entirely by free cash flow."
> — Matt Stumpf, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 4. Generative Ai Tools

AppLovin is developing generative AI tools to automate the ad creation process for advertisers and is currently running a pilot program with over 100 customers.

> "We already have in a pilot with over 100 customers, generative AI-based tools for one part of the ad unit."
> — Adam Foroughi, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 5. Axon Marketing Investment

AppLovin plans to increase marketing investments for the AXON advertising platform but is not rushing to ensure the tools catch up to the opportunity.

> "We're seeing 30-day LTV to CAC roughly. If we see that at scale, we're going to scale, but we're not in a rush because we want the tools to catch up to the opportunity."
> — Adam Foroughi, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 6.0 | medium | Q4 vs Q1: healthy growth (+11.7%) |
| Gross Margin | 9.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (88.9%, software/cloud territory) |
| Operating Leverage | 8.0 | strong | op margin very strong (76.9%, scale leverage) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.3B, 45.4× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | average R&D (5.0%) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.1 balanced, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (87%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +46.7% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 54 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +46.7% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +46.7% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 54.1 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50d MA:** $439 — hisse %4.7 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $526 — hisse %12.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** -23%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $1.67 | $1.44 | BEAT | +11.9% |
| Q2 FY25 | $2.26 | $1.96 | BEAT | +12.0% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.45 | $2.38 | BEAT | +0.7% |
| Q4 FY25 | $3.24 | $2.95 | +9.8% EPS | -19.7% |

Q4 (February 11, 2026): EPS $3.24 vs $2.95 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +9.8% beat. D+1 movement: -19.7%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $3.40 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $3.40<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $675<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $835<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $3.40 + CapEx < $28.3M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.40<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $28.3M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $460<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $675<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $3.30 or CapEx ≥ $28.3M**

Threshold: EPS < $3.30<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $460 below SMA200 $526<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $447<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q4: EPS $3.24 vs $2.95 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -19.7% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25

### CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $28.3M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q4 op margin 76.9%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $675 (+46.7% upside vs current $460)
- **High / Low:** $835 / $340
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 26 / 4 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 15 (last quarter), 84 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. q1_2026_revenue_guidance

**Claim:** AppLovin expects revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion for the first quarter of 2026, representing 5% to 7% sequential growth.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion, representing 5% to 7% sequential growth."

**Numbers:** $1.745 billion, $1.775 billion, 5%, 7%

### 2. q1_2026_EBITDA_margin_guidance

**Claim:** AppLovin expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84% for the first quarter of 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.465 billion and $1.495 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84%, maintaining best-in-class profitability as we continue to scale."

**Numbers:** 84%

### 3. share_repurchase_program

**Claim:** For the full year, AppLovin repurchased and withheld approximately 6.4 million shares for a total of $2.58 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For the full year, we repurchased and withheld approximately 6.4 million shares for a total of $2.58 billion, funded entirely by free cash flow."

**Numbers:** 6.4 million, $2.58 billion

### 4. axon_marketing_investment

**Claim:** AppLovin plans to increase marketing investments for the AXON advertising platform but is not rushing to ensure the tools catch up to the opportunity.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We're seeing 30-day LTV to CAC roughly. If we see that at scale, we're going to scale, but we're not in a rush because we want the tools to catch up to the opportunity."

**Numbers:** 30-day

### 5. generative_ai_tools

**Claim:** AppLovin is developing generative AI tools to automate the ad creation process for advertisers and is currently running a pilot program with over 100 customers.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We already have in a pilot with over 100 customers, generative AI-based tools for one part of the ad unit."

**Numbers:** 100

### 6. max_auction_growth

**Claim:** AppLovin notes that the MAX market is growing rapidly, proving it is not a zero-sum market, with other players also growing quickly.

**Evidence (transcript):** "When you've got all these market players growing quickly, that MAX market is growing in a way that people I don't think understood or would have expected, and we're not seeing any slowdowns there."

**Numbers:** —


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*