--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ares last_updated: 2026-05-05T22:30:30.579Z --- # Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T22:30:30.150Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $122.96 (▲ 2.48%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $40.4B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $95.80 – $195.26 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.33 (+29% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | D+ (overall 1/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $164 (+33.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 54/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Ares Management Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.3B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.33^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** D+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 54 = MoonshotScore 54^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Aum Growth Ares Management Corporation reported an 18% year-over-year increase in AUM, reaching $644 billion. > "Our AUM increased 18% year-over-year to 644 billion dollars, and our fee-paying AUM increased 19% to 400 billion dollars." > — Michael J. Arougheti, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Fre Margin Expansion Ares Management Corporation anticipates continued FRE margin expansion and expects to be within the upper end of its 0 to 150 basis points annual target this year. > "We anticipate continued FRE margin expansion and we expect to be within the upper end of our 0 to 150 basis points annual target this year." > — Jarrod Morgan Phillips, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Wealth Aum Growth Ares Management Corporation's Wealth AUM increased 54% year-over-year to $68 billion. > "On a year-over-year basis, our Wealth AUM increased 54% to 68 billion dollars." > — Michael J. Arougheti, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Fundraising Success Ares Management Corporation raised a record $30 billion of gross capital in Q1 2026. > "In fact, we are on track for another record year of fundraising as we raised 30 billion dollars of gross capital in Q1, which is our highest ever first quarter, and that is up 46% compared to last year’s record first quarter." > — Michael J. Arougheti, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Alternative Credit Fund Ares Management Corporation's third vintage of its Alternative Credit fund is experiencing strong demand well in excess of its $6.5 billion target and is expected to close in the second quarter. > "In January, we launched the third vintage of our Alternative Credit fund with a target of 6.5 billion dollars. Our prior Alternative Credit fund totaled 6.6 billion dollars in capital, and the current fund is experiencing strong demand from existing and new institutional investors well in excess of the target. We expect to complete the fundraise in the second quarter at its hard cap as the fund is already meaningfully oversubscribed." > — Michael J. Arougheti, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Asoiii Final Close Ares Management Corporation's latest opportunistic credit fund, ASOF III, closed with over $8.3 billion of equity commitments. > "In the first quarter, we held the final close for ASOF III, our latest opportunistic credit fund, raising over 8.3 billion dollars of equity commitments and nearly 10 billion dollars including related transaction vehicles." > — Michael J. Arougheti, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 7.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+13.6%) | | Gross Margin | 10.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (96.1%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (23.8%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-2.1B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 62.2 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (65%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +33.4% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 62 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +33.4% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +33.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 62.2 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $111 — hisse %11.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $150 — hisse %18.0 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +9% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.03 | $1.08 | MISS | +3.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.19 | $1.15 | BEAT | -1.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.45 | $1.69 | MISS | +7.0% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.24 | $1.32 | +-6.1% EPS | +0.8% | Q1 (May 1, 2026): EPS $1.24 vs $1.32 est^[FMP], +-6.1% beat. D+1 movement: +0.8%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.33 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.33^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $164^{[FMP target]}; high target $215^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.33 + CapEx < $15.8M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.33^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $15.8M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $123^[FMP] and median $164^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.29 or CapEx ≥ $15.8M** Threshold: EPS < $1.29^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $123 below SMA200 $150^[FMP], if rejection continues, $127^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.24 vs $1.32 beat^[FMP], stock +0.8% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $15.8M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 23.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $164 (+33.4% upside vs current $123) - **High / Low:** $215 / $140 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 11 / 6 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 46 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. aum_growth **Claim:** Ares Management Corporation reported an 18% year-over-year increase in AUM, reaching $644 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our AUM increased 18% year-over-year to 644 billion dollars, and our fee-paying AUM increased 19% to 400 billion dollars." **Numbers:** 18%, 644, 19%, 400 ### 2. fundraising_success **Claim:** Ares Management Corporation raised a record $30 billion of gross capital in Q1 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "In fact, we are on track for another record year of fundraising as we raised 30 billion dollars of gross capital in Q1, which is our highest ever first quarter, and that is up 46% compared to last year’s record first quarter." **Numbers:** 30, 46% ### 3. asoiii_final_close **Claim:** Ares Management Corporation's latest opportunistic credit fund, ASOF III, closed with over $8.3 billion of equity commitments. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the first quarter, we held the final close for ASOF III, our latest opportunistic credit fund, raising over 8.3 billion dollars of equity commitments and nearly 10 billion dollars including related transaction vehicles." **Numbers:** 8.3, 10 ### 4. alternative_credit_fund **Claim:** Ares Management Corporation's third vintage of its Alternative Credit fund is experiencing strong demand well in excess of its $6.5 billion target and is expected to close in the second quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "In January, we launched the third vintage of our Alternative Credit fund with a target of 6.5 billion dollars. Our prior Alternative Credit fund totaled 6.6 billion dollars in capital, and the current fund is experiencing strong demand from existing and new institutional investors well in excess of the target. We expect to complete the fundraise in the second quarter at its hard cap as the fund is already meaningfully oversubscribed." **Numbers:** 6.5, 6.6 ### 5. us_direct_lending_fund **Claim:** Ares Management Corporation is accelerating the launch of its fourth senior direct lending fund due to improving market conditions, anticipating a first close in late third quarter or early fourth quarter of this year. **Evidence (transcript):** "In U.S. Direct Lending, we are accelerating the launch of our fourth senior direct lending fund due to improving market conditions, which are offering enhanced economics, lower leverage and improved deal terms in U.S. Direct Lending investments. We anticipate a first close in late third quarter or early fourth quarter of this year." **Numbers:** — ### 6. wealth_aum_growth **Claim:** Ares Management Corporation's Wealth AUM increased 54% year-over-year to $68 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "On a year-over-year basis, our Wealth AUM increased 54% to 68 billion dollars." **Numbers:** 54%, 68 ### 7. fre_margin_expansion **Claim:** Ares Management Corporation anticipates continued FRE margin expansion and expects to be within the upper end of its 0 to 150 basis points annual target this year. **Evidence (transcript):** "We anticipate continued FRE margin expansion and we expect to be within the upper end of our 0 to 150 basis points annual target this year." **Numbers:** 0, 150 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*