--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ato last_updated: 2026-05-09T11:45:10.379Z --- # Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:45:09.964Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $180.87 (▼ -0.54%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $30.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $149.98 – $192.51 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 5 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.32 (+14% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $913.9M | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $177 (-2.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 43/100 | derived | | Council | 0/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Atmos Energy Corporation — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $913.9M^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.32^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 0/6 · **Moonshot:** 43 = MoonshotScore 43^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 0/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Apt Revenue Increase APT's through-system revenues increased by $16 million during the first 6 months of fiscal 2026, driven by higher spreads. > "Finally, APT's through-system revenues net of Rider REV increased about $16 million or $0.08. Substantially, all of this increase reflected higher spreads realized during fiscal '26 compared with fiscal '25." > — Christopher Forsythe, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Eps Guidance Increase Atmos Energy increased its fiscal 2026 earnings per share guidance from a range of $8.35 to $8.45 to a new range of $8.40 to $8.50. > "As we reported last night, we have increased our fiscal '26 earnings per share guidance from an original range of $8.15 to $8.25 (sic) [ $8.35 ] to a new range of $8.40, $8.50." > — Christopher Forsythe, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Customer Growth Atmos Energy added over 51,000 new customers in the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, with over 39,000 of those new customers located in Texas. > "For the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, we added over 51,000 new customers with over 39,000 of those new customers located here in Texas." > — John Akers, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. O&M Guidance Atmos Energy anticipates its O&M to be in the range of $865 million to $885 million for fiscal year 2026. > "We still anticipate our O&M to be in the range of $865 million to $885 million." > — Christopher Forsythe, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Rule 7.7102 Impact The implementation of Texas Rev Commission's Rule 7.7102 is estimated to have an impact ranging from $155 million to $165 million for fiscal year 2026. > "We estimate this impact will range from $155 million to $165 million for the entire fiscal year, including the deferral of incurred post-in-service carrying costs, depreciation and ad valorem taxes." > — Christopher Forsythe, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 6. Capital Expenditures Atmos Energy's capital expenditures for the first half of the fiscal year totaled $2 billion, with over 89% of those investments focused on enhancing the safety and reliability of distribution, transmission and underground storage systems. > "Our capital expenditures for the first half of the fiscal year totaled $2 billion, with over 89% of those investments focused on enhancing the safety and reliability of our distribution, transmission and underground storage systems." > — John Akers, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+134.0%) | | Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q2: average margin (46.0%) | | Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (39.0%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.3B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 39.3 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 1.0 | weak | majority sell/hold (14% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -2.1% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 39 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -2.1% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 2/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -2.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 39.3 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $186 — hisse %2.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $174 — hisse %4.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +21% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $1.16 | $1.14 | BEAT | +3.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.07 | $0.99 | BEAT | +1.7% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.44 | $2.44 | MISS | -0.2% | | Q2 FY26 | $3.47 | $3.37 | +3.0% EPS | -1.6% | Q2 (May 7, 2026): EPS $3.47 vs $3.37 est^[FMP], +3.0% beat. D+1 movement: -1.6%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $1.32 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.32^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $177^{[FMP target]}; high target $195^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.32 + CapEx < $1.0B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.32^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $1.0B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $181^[FMP] and median $177^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.28 or CapEx ≥ $1.0B** Threshold: EPS < $1.28^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $181 below SMA200 $174^[FMP], if rejection continues, $148^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $3.47 vs $3.37 beat^[FMP], stock -1.6% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $1.0B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 39.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $177 (-2.1% upside vs current $181) - **High / Low:** $195 / $167 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 2 / 12 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 2 (last quarter), 32 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. eps_guidance_increase **Claim:** Atmos Energy increased its fiscal 2026 earnings per share guidance from a range of $8.35 to $8.45 to a new range of $8.40 to $8.50. **Evidence (transcript):** "As we reported last night, we have increased our fiscal '26 earnings per share guidance from an original range of $8.15 to $8.25 (sic) [ $8.35 ] to a new range of $8.40, $8.50." **Numbers:** $8.15, $8.25, $8.35, $8.40, $8.50 ### 2. apt_revenue_increase **Claim:** APT's through-system revenues increased by $16 million during the first 6 months of fiscal 2026, driven by higher spreads. **Evidence (transcript):** "Finally, APT's through-system revenues net of Rider REV increased about $16 million or $0.08. Substantially, all of this increase reflected higher spreads realized during fiscal '26 compared with fiscal '25." **Numbers:** $16 million, $0.08, '26, '25 ### 3. customer_growth **Claim:** Atmos Energy added over 51,000 new customers in the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, with over 39,000 of those new customers located in Texas. **Evidence (transcript):** "For the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, we added over 51,000 new customers with over 39,000 of those new customers located here in Texas." **Numbers:** 51,000, 39,000, 31 ### 4. capital_expenditures **Claim:** Atmos Energy's capital expenditures for the first half of the fiscal year totaled $2 billion, with over 89% of those investments focused on enhancing the safety and reliability of distribution, transmission and underground storage systems. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our capital expenditures for the first half of the fiscal year totaled $2 billion, with over 89% of those investments focused on enhancing the safety and reliability of our distribution, transmission and underground storage systems." **Numbers:** $2 billion, 89% ### 5. rule_7.7102_impact **Claim:** The implementation of Texas Rev Commission's Rule 7.7102 is estimated to have an impact ranging from $155 million to $165 million for fiscal year 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We estimate this impact will range from $155 million to $165 million for the entire fiscal year, including the deferral of incurred post-in-service carrying costs, depreciation and ad valorem taxes." **Numbers:** $155 million, $165 million, 7.7102 ### 6. o&m_guidance **Claim:** Atmos Energy anticipates its O&M to be in the range of $865 million to $885 million for fiscal year 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We still anticipate our O&M to be in the range of $865 million to $885 million." **Numbers:** $865 million, $885 million --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*