--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/avb last_updated: 2026-05-09T12:54:59.849Z --- # AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T12:54:59.398Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $184.08 (▼ -0.92%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $25.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $160.10 – $209.86 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.21 (-57% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $773.2M | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $191 (+3.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 49/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## AvalonBay Communities, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $773.2M^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.21^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 49 = MoonshotScore 49^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Same Store Revenue Growth AVB's same-store residential revenue grew 1.6% year-over-year with occupancy up 10 basis points to 96.1%. > "Same-store residential revenue grew 1.6% year-over-year with occupancy up 10 basis points to 96.1%." > — Benjamin Schall, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Ai Driven Noi AVB aims to achieve its Horizon 2 target of $80 million of annual incremental NOI through further deployment of AI solutions and seamless digital self-service experiences. > "Our next set of priorities include the further deployment of AI solutions and our seamless digital self-service experiences, additional enhancements to our technology and data platforms and further optimization of neighborhood and centralized staffing, all on our way to our Horizon 2 target of $80 million of annual incremental NOI in the coming years." > — Benjamin Schall, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Development Starts During the quarter, AVB started nearly $190 million of new development with 2 starts in suburban New Jersey and are on track for $800 million of planned 2026 development starts with projected initial stabilized yields of 6.5% to 7%. > "During the quarter, we started nearly $190 million of new development with 2 starts in suburban New Jersey and are on track for $800 million of planned 2026 development starts with projected initial stabilized yields of 6.5% to 7%." > — Benjamin Schall, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Dispositions Share Repurchases During the quarter, AVB completed $340 million of dispositions and repurchased $200 million of its shares at an implied cap rate in the low 6% range. > "And during the quarter, we completed $340 million of dispositions and repurchased $200 million of our shares at an implied cap rate in the low 6% range." > — Benjamin Schall, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Development Noi Ramp AVB expects a ramp in development NOI in 2026, which will further accelerate during the year and into 2027. > "We are also benefiting from the ramp in development NOI in 2026, which will further accelerate during the year and into 2027." > — Benjamin Schall, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Q1 Outperformance AVB's first quarter results exceeded expectations, driven by lower expenses, higher development NOI, and the benefits of share buyback activity. > "Our first quarter results exceeded our expectations, driven by lower expenses, higher development NOI and the benefits of our share buyback activity, which was not included in our original outlook for 2026." > — Benjamin Schall, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 1.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+1.3%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (67.7%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (28.4%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.4B, 6.0× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 64.6 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 3.0 | weak | mixed (30% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +3.8% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 65 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +3.8% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +3.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 64.6 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $173 — hisse %6.7 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $181 — hisse %1.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +57% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.82 | $2.80 | BEAT | -5.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.75 | $2.81 | MISS | -0.9% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.17 | $1.23 | MISS | -4.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.33 | $1.27 | +83.5% EPS | +5.3% | Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $2.33 vs $1.27 est^[FMP], +83.5% beat. D+1 movement: +5.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.21 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.21^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $191^{[FMP target]}; high target $206^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.21 + CapEx < $60.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.21^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $60.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $184^[FMP] and median $191^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.17 or CapEx ≥ $60.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.17^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $184 below SMA200 $181^[FMP], if rejection continues, $154^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.33 vs $1.27 beat^[FMP], stock +5.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $60.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 28.4%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $191 (+3.8% upside vs current $184) - **High / Low:** $206 / $172 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 7 / 16 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 5 (last quarter), 60 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. q1_outperformance **Claim:** AVB's first quarter results exceeded expectations, driven by lower expenses, higher development NOI, and the benefits of share buyback activity. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our first quarter results exceeded our expectations, driven by lower expenses, higher development NOI and the benefits of our share buyback activity, which was not included in our original outlook for 2026." **Numbers:** 2026 ### 2. development_noi_ramp **Claim:** AVB expects a ramp in development NOI in 2026, which will further accelerate during the year and into 2027. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are also benefiting from the ramp in development NOI in 2026, which will further accelerate during the year and into 2027." **Numbers:** 2026, 2027 ### 3. dispositions_share_repurchases **Claim:** During the quarter, AVB completed $340 million of dispositions and repurchased $200 million of its shares at an implied cap rate in the low 6% range. **Evidence (transcript):** "And during the quarter, we completed $340 million of dispositions and repurchased $200 million of our shares at an implied cap rate in the low 6% range." **Numbers:** $340 million, $200 million, 6% ### 4. same_store_revenue_growth **Claim:** AVB's same-store residential revenue grew 1.6% year-over-year with occupancy up 10 basis points to 96.1%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Same-store residential revenue grew 1.6% year-over-year with occupancy up 10 basis points to 96.1%." **Numbers:** 1.6%, 10, 96.1% ### 5. development_starts **Claim:** During the quarter, AVB started nearly $190 million of new development with 2 starts in suburban New Jersey and are on track for $800 million of planned 2026 development starts with projected initial stabilized yields of 6.5% to 7%. **Evidence (transcript):** "During the quarter, we started nearly $190 million of new development with 2 starts in suburban New Jersey and are on track for $800 million of planned 2026 development starts with projected initial stabilized yields of 6.5% to 7%." **Numbers:** $190 million, 2, $800 million, 2026, 6.5%, 7% ### 6. ai_driven_noi **Claim:** AVB aims to achieve its Horizon 2 target of $80 million of annual incremental NOI through further deployment of AI solutions and seamless digital self-service experiences. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our next set of priorities include the further deployment of AI solutions and our seamless digital self-service experiences, additional enhancements to our technology and data platforms and further optimization of neighborhood and centralized staffing, all on our way to our Horizon 2 target of $80 million of annual incremental NOI in the coming years." **Numbers:** $80 million --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*