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last_updated: 2026-05-09T15:45:23.403Z
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# Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T15:45:22.935Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $163.51 (▼ -1.22%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $12.5B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $156.23 – $199.54 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Tue 28 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $2.47 (+2% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $2.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $222 (+35.5% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived |
| Council | 4/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## Avery Dennison Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$2.3B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$2.47</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 4 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 44

= MoonshotScore <strong>44</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>4/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Materials Group Sales Growth

Materials Group reported approximately 2% organic sales growth in the first quarter.

> "Materials Group delivered reported sales growth of 11% over the prior year. On an organic basis, sales grew approximately 2%, driven by mid single-digit volume and mix growth that was partially offset by deflation-related price reductions."
> — Deon M. Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Q2 Eps Guidance

Avery Dennison expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.43 to $2.53 for the second quarter.

> "We expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.43 to $2.53, representing approximately 3% growth year over year at the midpoint."
> — Gregory S. Lovins, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Intelligent Labels Growth Outlook

Avery Dennison expects its enterprise Intelligent Labels platform to outpace 2025 growth in 2026, with performance more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year.

> "Looking ahead, we continue to expect 2026 growth for our enterprise Intelligent Labels to outpace 2025, with performance more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year as major programs scale."
> — Deon M. Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Organic Sales Growth Q1

Avery Dennison reported a 1% organic sales growth in the first quarter.

> "We delivered a strong start to 2026, with first quarter organic sales up 1%, driven by mid single-digit volume/mix growth, and adjusted EPS up 7% year over year."
> — Deon M. Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Solutions Group Sales Decline

Solutions Group's organic sales decreased by 1% in the first quarter.

> "In the Solutions Group, reported sales for the quarter decreased 3%, with sales down 1% on an organic basis."
> — Deon M. Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 2.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.5%) |
| Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (28.9%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (11.8%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.1B, 3.8× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.1 weak momentum, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (82%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +35.5% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 43 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +35.5% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +35.5% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 43.1 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50d MA:** $171 — hisse %4.3 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $175 — hisse %6.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** -30%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $2.42 | $2.39 | BEAT | -1.1% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.37 | $2.33 | BEAT | +4.0% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.45 | $2.40 | BEAT | -0.1% |
| Q1 FY26 | $2.47 | $2.41 | +2.5% EPS | -2.1% |

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $2.47 vs $2.41 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +2.5% beat. D+1 movement: -2.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $2.47 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $2.47<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $222<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $224<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $2.47 + CapEx < $28.3M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.47<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $28.3M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $164<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $222<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $2.40 or CapEx ≥ $28.3M**

Threshold: EPS < $2.40<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $164 below SMA200 $175<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $148<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $2.47 vs $2.41 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -2.1% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $28.3M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 11.8%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $222 (+35.5% upside vs current $164)
- **High / Low:** $224 / $192
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 9 / 2 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 32 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. organic_sales_growth_q1

**Claim:** Avery Dennison reported a 1% organic sales growth in the first quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We delivered a strong start to 2026, with first quarter organic sales up 1%, driven by mid single-digit volume/mix growth, and adjusted EPS up 7% year over year."

**Numbers:** 1%, 7%

### 2. intelligent_labels_growth_outlook

**Claim:** Avery Dennison expects its enterprise Intelligent Labels platform to outpace 2025 growth in 2026, with performance more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Looking ahead, we continue to expect 2026 growth for our enterprise Intelligent Labels to outpace 2025, with performance more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year as major programs scale."

**Numbers:** 2026, 2025

### 3. materials_group_sales_growth

**Claim:** Materials Group reported approximately 2% organic sales growth in the first quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Materials Group delivered reported sales growth of 11% over the prior year. On an organic basis, sales grew approximately 2%, driven by mid single-digit volume and mix growth that was partially offset by deflation-related price reductions."

**Numbers:** 11%, 2%

### 4. solutions_group_sales_decline

**Claim:** Solutions Group's organic sales decreased by 1% in the first quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In the Solutions Group, reported sales for the quarter decreased 3%, with sales down 1% on an organic basis."

**Numbers:** 3%, 1%

### 5. raw_material_inflation_q2

**Claim:** Avery Dennison anticipates high single-digit sequential raw material inflation in the second quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Overall, we are anticipating high single-digit sequential inflation in the second quarter."

**Numbers:** —

### 6. q2_eps_guidance

**Claim:** Avery Dennison expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.43 to $2.53 for the second quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.43 to $2.53, representing approximately 3% growth year over year at the midpoint."

**Numbers:** $2.43, $2.53, 3%


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*