--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/axon last_updated: 2026-05-09T11:16:42.807Z --- # Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:16:42.238Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $403.54 (▼ -5.47%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $32.5B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $339.01 – $885.92 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 3 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.86 (-12% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $876.1M | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $690 (+71.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 50/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Axon Enterprise, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $876.1M^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.86^{[FMP est]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 50 = MoonshotScore 50^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Fy26 Revenue Guidance The company is raising its revenue guidance for 2026 to a range of 30% to 32% growth, driven by strong Q1 results and momentum in the pipeline. > "Given these trends, our strong Q1 results and the momentum we are seeing in our pipeline, we're well positioned to deliver on our top line expectations and are raising our revenue guidance for the year to a range of 30% to 32% growth." > — Brittany Bagley, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. International Growth International revenue was up over 100% year-over-year and represented 20% of revenue for the quarter. > "International revenue was up over 100% year-over-year as we delivered on the bookings momentum we highlighted last year and it represented 20% of our revenue for the quarter." > — Brittany Bagley, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Free Cash Flow Guidance The company expects to deliver approximately $450 million of free cash flow full year in 2026, even with continued investments in inventory. > "Even with these investments, we expect free cash flow conversion to improve meaningfully and expect to deliver approximately $450 million of free cash flow full year in 2026." > — Brittany Bagley, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Dedrone Growth Dedrone's growth is exceeding aggressive assumptions, with rising demand seen across all markets. > "Dedrone, our counter drone business is scaling beyond our most aggressive assumptions. Bookings are up 500% year-over-year, and we are continuing to see rising demand." > — Joshua Isner, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Ai Era Plan Adoption Adoption of the AI Era Plan is rapidly increasing, with large-scale agencies viewing AI as a core capability. > "AI bookings were up 140% versus Q1 last year and we are seeing AI move from early interest to a standard part of how large agencies think about their future technology stack." > — Joshua Isner, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Enterprise Expansion Axon closed a $40 million deal with a major telecom provider using Fusus, continuing its expansion in the enterprise market. > "After a 50% year-over-year Q1 in April, our team closed a $40 million opportunity with one of the largest telecom providers in the world. The deployment centers around Fusus, which continues to garner interest and drive growth in this segment, along with Axon Body Mini and Axon Outpost." > — Joshua Isner, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+20.8%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (59.1%) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (3.6%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.1B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | very high R&D (22.2%, margin pressure risk) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 48.2 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (90%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +71.0% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 48 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +71.0% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +71.0% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 48.2 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $446 — hisse %9.6 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $593 — hisse %31.9 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +33% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.12 | $1.45 | BEAT | +16.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.17 | $1.52 | MISS | -9.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.15 | $1.60 | BEAT | +17.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.61 | $1.60 | +0.6% EPS | +10.6% | Q1 (May 6, 2026): EPS $1.61 vs $1.60 est^[FMP], +0.6% beat. D+1 movement: +10.6%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $1.86 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.86^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $690^{[FMP target]}; high target $820^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.86 + CapEx < $23.1M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.86^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $23.1M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $404^[FMP] and median $690^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.80 or CapEx ≥ $23.1M** Threshold: EPS < $1.80^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $404 below SMA200 $593^[FMP], if rejection continues, $504^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.61 vs $1.60 beat^[FMP], stock +10.6% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $23.1M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 3.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $690 (+71.0% upside vs current $404) - **High / Low:** $820 / $440 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 18 / 2 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 10 (last quarter), 30 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. ai_era_plan_adoption **Claim:** Adoption of the AI Era Plan is rapidly increasing, with large-scale agencies viewing AI as a core capability. **Evidence (transcript):** "AI bookings were up 140% versus Q1 last year and we are seeing AI move from early interest to a standard part of how large agencies think about their future technology stack." **Numbers:** %140 ### 2. dedrone_growth **Claim:** Dedrone's growth is exceeding aggressive assumptions, with rising demand seen across all markets. **Evidence (transcript):** "Dedrone, our counter drone business is scaling beyond our most aggressive assumptions. Bookings are up 500% year-over-year, and we are continuing to see rising demand." **Numbers:** %500 ### 3. enterprise_expansion **Claim:** Axon closed a $40 million deal with a major telecom provider using Fusus, continuing its expansion in the enterprise market. **Evidence (transcript):** "After a 50% year-over-year Q1 in April, our team closed a $40 million opportunity with one of the largest telecom providers in the world. The deployment centers around Fusus, which continues to garner interest and drive growth in this segment, along with Axon Body Mini and Axon Outpost." **Numbers:** %50, $40 million ### 4. international_growth **Claim:** International revenue was up over 100% year-over-year and represented 20% of revenue for the quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "International revenue was up over 100% year-over-year as we delivered on the bookings momentum we highlighted last year and it represented 20% of our revenue for the quarter." **Numbers:** %100, %20 ### 5. fy26_revenue_guidance **Claim:** The company is raising its revenue guidance for 2026 to a range of 30% to 32% growth, driven by strong Q1 results and momentum in the pipeline. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given these trends, our strong Q1 results and the momentum we are seeing in our pipeline, we're well positioned to deliver on our top line expectations and are raising our revenue guidance for the year to a range of 30% to 32% growth." **Numbers:** %30, %32 ### 6. free_cash_flow_guidance **Claim:** The company expects to deliver approximately $450 million of free cash flow full year in 2026, even with continued investments in inventory. **Evidence (transcript):** "Even with these investments, we expect free cash flow conversion to improve meaningfully and expect to deliver approximately $450 million of free cash flow full year in 2026." **Numbers:** $450 million, 2026 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*