American Express Company
AXP - NYSE - $319.64 ▼ -%1.06
-
Earnings Fri 24 Jul

American opens the
books on Friday evening.

8 analysts' median target is $390[FMP target], stock is $320, +22.0% upside potential. After Q1 +7.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.4%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 53

B+ = MoonshotScore 53[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $19.6B[FMP est], EPS $4.40[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$4.40 EPS Estimate Last year $3.53 - +8% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +7.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.4% D+1[FMP D+1]. Christophe Le Caillec promised $1.1B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Christophe Le Caillec capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

9% Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Guidance Reaffirmation

fy26_guidance_reaffirmation

American Express reaffirmed its full year 2026 guidance of 9% to 10% revenue growth and EPS of $17.30 to $17.90.

"Looking ahead, we're reaffirming our full year 2026 guidance of 9% to 10% annual revenue growth and EPS of $17.30 to $17.9."

- Stephen Squeri, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
11% Investor Focus

Revenue Growth Q1

revenue_growth_q1

American Express reported an 11% revenue growth in Q1 2026.

"Revenue in the quarter grew 11% or 10% on an FX-adjusted basis and EPS was $4.28, up 18% over the prior year."

- Stephen Squeri, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
10% Investor Focus

Card Member Spending Growth

card_member_spending_growth

Card member spending grew by 10%, marking the highest quarterly growth in 3 years.

"Card member spending grew 10% on a reported basis, and this is the highest quarterly growth in 3 years, driven by strong growth across both Goods and Services and T&E."

- Stephen Squeri, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
20th Investor Focus

International Growth

international_growth

International remains our fastest-growing segment with billings up double digits for the 20th consecutive quarter on an FX-adjusted basis.

"International remains our fastest-growing segment with billings up double digits for the 20th consecutive quarter on an FX-adjusted basis."

- Stephen Squeri, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 53 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+4.8%)
Gross Margin8.0Q1: very high margin (84.6%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin very strong (31.6%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($2.7B, 2.3x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 51.4 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment4.0mixed (39% buy)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +22.0%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 51
Klarman value - target upside +22.0%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +22.0%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
51.4 RSI 51.4 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+2.40 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$312 stock 2.4% above - short-term support
200d MA
$336 stock 4.9% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-33% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$390
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$320
Pre-earnings position
Support
$286
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$286-$390 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

American's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$4.08 vs $3.89 est - -1.6%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$4.14 vs $4.00 est - +0.8%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$3.53 vs $3.54 est - +0.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$4.28 vs $4.00 est - -1.4%

Q1 (April 23, 2026): EPS $4.28 vs $4.00 est[FMP], +7.0% beat. D+1 movement: -1.4%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $4.27 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $4.28 vs $4.00 beat[FMP], stock -1.4% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $1.1B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 31.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $4.40 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $4.40[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $390[FMP target]; high target $415[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.40 + CapEx < $1.1B
Threshold: EPS approx $4.40[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $1.1B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $320[FMP] and median $390[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $4.27 or CapEx >= $1.1B
Threshold: EPS < $4.27[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $320 below SMA200 $336[FMP], if rejection continues, $286[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 8 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$390
12-month median target price (+22.0% upside potential)
11
BUY
16
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$286
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$312 - 50-day MA (above, +2.4%)
$336 - 200-day MA (below, -4.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - AXP Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Friday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Friday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.40[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.1B"[Christophe Le Caillec]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 24, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 25, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 7, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 24, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the AXP earnings preview cover?

This AXP (AXP) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in AXP earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.