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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/azo
last_updated: 2026-07-13T06:14:00.157Z
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# AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q3 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-07-13T06:13:59.728Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $3072.64 (▲ 2.07%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $50.2B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $2928.11 – $4388.11 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Tue 22 Sep | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $54.51 (+12% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $6.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $3909 (+27.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 46/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## AutoZone, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations

Q1 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$6.7B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$54.51</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 2 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 46

= MoonshotScore <strong>46</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="multi-pillar formula">[multi-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (0 metrics)

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## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q3 vs Q4: growth negative (-22.5%, contraction) |
| Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q3: high margin (52.2%) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (19.1%) |
| Cash Runway | 9.0 | strong | FCF strong ($0.5B FCF, covers CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 47.1 balanced, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (85%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +27.2% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 47 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +27.2% |
| Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +27.2% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Weak
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 47.1 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50d MA:** $3215 — hisse %4.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $3567 — hisse %13.9 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** -52%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 | $48.71 | $50.73 | MISS | +1.4% |
| Q1 FY26 | $31.04 | $32.75 | MISS | -2.2% |
| Q2 FY26 | $27.63 | $27.15 | BEAT | +2.2% |
| Q3 FY26 | $38.07 | $36.22 | +5.1% EPS | -2.3% |

Q3 (May 26, 2026): EPS $38.07 vs $36.22 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +5.1% beat. D+1 movement: -2.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q1 EPS > $54.51 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $54.51<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $3909<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $4800<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $54.51 + CapEx < $345.5M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $54.51<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q1 CapEx < $345.5M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $3073<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $3909<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $52.87 or CapEx ≥ $345.5M**

Threshold: EPS < $52.87<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $3073 below SMA200 $3567<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $3032<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q3: EPS $38.07 vs $36.22 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -2.3% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q3 CapEx $345.5M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q3 op margin 19.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $3909 (+27.2% upside vs current $3073)
- **High / Low:** $4800 / $3200
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 23 / 4 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 122 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-07-13), Q3 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*