--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/bkng last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:30:52.009Z --- # Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:30:50.732Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $169.63 (▲ 0.75%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $131.4B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $150.62 – $233.58 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 4 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.47 (+346% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $7.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $225 (+32.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 53/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Booking Holdings Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $7.2B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.47^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 53 = MoonshotScore 53^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Q2 Room Night Growth Guidance The company expects second quarter room night growth to be between 2% and 4%. > "We currently expect second quarter room night growth to be between 2% and 4% and for gross bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA to each grow between 4% and 6%." > — Ewout Steenbergen, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Room Night Growth Impact The conflict in the Middle East impacted room night growth by approximately 2 percentage points. > "We estimate that the Middle East conflict impacted our room night and gross bookings growth by approximately 2 percentage points, accounting for directly impacted countries in the region as well as bookers whose travel was affected by the conflict." > — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Connected Trip Growth Connected Trip transactions increased in the high teens range and represented a low double-digit percentage of Booking.com's total transactions. > "In the first quarter, connected transactions, meaning trips that included bookings across more than one vertical grew in the high teens range and represented a low double-digit percentage of Booking.com's total transactions." > — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Us Room Night Growth U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to the low teens, driven primarily by strong domestic demand. > "As a result of our continued disciplined execution, I am pleased to report that our U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to the low teens, driven primarily by strong domestic demand." > — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Share Repurchase The company completed a record $3.6 billion in share repurchases in the first quarter. > "Our confidence in these initiatives and our future growth profile is reflected in a capital allocation strategy that we've employed for well over a decade, including the record $3.6 billion in share repurchases we completed in the first quarter." > — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Asia Growth Opportunity Asia continues to see one of the most compelling structural growth opportunities in the global travel industry. > "In Asia, we continue to see one of the most compelling structural growth opportunities in the global travel industry." > — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-18.6%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 10.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (100.0%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (23.0%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($3.1B, 29.0× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 42.3 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (82%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +32.6% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 42 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +32.6% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +32.6% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 42.3 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $174 — hisse %2.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $200 — hisse %15.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -27% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $0.55 | $0.50 | BEAT | +0.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $0.99 | $0.96 | BEAT | -0.9% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.95 | $1.95 | MISS | -6.1% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.14 | $1.08 | +5.6% EPS | +0.3% | Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $1.14 vs $1.08 est^[FMP], +5.6% beat. D+1 movement: +0.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $2.47 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.47^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $225^{[FMP target]}; high target $309.84^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.47 + CapEx < $107.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.47^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $107.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $170^[FMP] and median $225^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.40 or CapEx ≥ $107.0M** Threshold: EPS < $2.40^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $170^[derived] below SMA200 $200^[FMP], if rejection continues, $170 support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.14 vs $1.08 beat^[FMP], stock +0.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $107.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 23.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $225 (+32.6% upside vs current $170) - **High / Low:** $309.84 / $175 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 31 / 7 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 25 (last quarter), 125 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. room_night_growth_impact **Claim:** The conflict in the Middle East impacted room night growth by approximately 2 percentage points. **Evidence (transcript):** "We estimate that the Middle East conflict impacted our room night and gross bookings growth by approximately 2 percentage points, accounting for directly impacted countries in the region as well as bookers whose travel was affected by the conflict." **Numbers:** 2 ### 2. share_repurchase **Claim:** The company completed a record $3.6 billion in share repurchases in the first quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our confidence in these initiatives and our future growth profile is reflected in a capital allocation strategy that we've employed for well over a decade, including the record $3.6 billion in share repurchases we completed in the first quarter." **Numbers:** 3.6 ### 3. us_room_night_growth **Claim:** U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to the low teens, driven primarily by strong domestic demand. **Evidence (transcript):** "As a result of our continued disciplined execution, I am pleased to report that our U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to the low teens, driven primarily by strong domestic demand." **Numbers:** — ### 4. asia_growth_opportunity **Claim:** Asia continues to see one of the most compelling structural growth opportunities in the global travel industry. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Asia, we continue to see one of the most compelling structural growth opportunities in the global travel industry." **Numbers:** — ### 5. connected_trip_growth **Claim:** Connected Trip transactions increased in the high teens range and represented a low double-digit percentage of Booking.com's total transactions. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the first quarter, connected transactions, meaning trips that included bookings across more than one vertical grew in the high teens range and represented a low double-digit percentage of Booking.com's total transactions." **Numbers:** — ### 6. q2_room_night_growth_guidance **Claim:** The company expects second quarter room night growth to be between 2% and 4%. **Evidence (transcript):** "We currently expect second quarter room night growth to be between 2% and 4% and for gross bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA to each grow between 4% and 6%." **Numbers:** 2, 4, 4, 6 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*