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# Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T16:40:40.780Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $77.40 (▼ -2.53%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $8.3B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $73.40 – $151.03 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $1.32 (-45% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $3.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $105 (+35.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 31/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## Builders FirstSource, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$3.9B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$1.32</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 0 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 31

= MoonshotScore <strong>31</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Revised Fy26 Guidance

The company has revised its full year 2026 net sales guidance to a range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion due to weak market conditions.

> "As a result, we are adding net sales in the range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.5% to 9.6%."
> — Pete Beckmann, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Q2 2026 Guidance

The company expects net sales for Q2 2026 to be between $3.75 billion and $4.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be between $300 million and $350 million.

> "For Q2, we expect net sales to be between $3.75 billion and $4.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be between $300 million and $350 million."
> — Pete Beckmann, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Digital Platform Growth

The company's digital platform processed nearly $800 million of quotes in Q1, highlighting the platform's growth and importance.

> "In Q1, our digital platform processed nearly $800 million of quotes as we continue to automate key steps of the process."
> — Peter Jackson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Cost Reduction Actions

The company has executed $100 million of cost actions as part of its downturn playbook.

> "As we touched on in February, we linked further into our downturn playbook with $100 million of cost actions, which includes $75 million in year-over-year cost reductions and $25 million in cost avoidance."
> — Pete Beckmann, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Share Repurchase Program

Since the inception of the buyback program in August of 2021, the company has repurchased nearly 50% of its total shares outstanding.

> "Since the inception of the buyback program in August of 2021, we have repurchased nearly 50% of our total shares outstanding."
> — Peter Jackson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-22.4%, contraction) |
| Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (28.3%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (0.5%, under pressure) |
| Cash Runway | 7.0 | strong | FCF positive but absorbed ($0.0B vs $0.0B CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 39.3 weak momentum, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (52%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +35.7% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 39 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +35.7% |
| Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +35.7% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 39.3 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50d MA:** $86 — hisse %10.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $112 — hisse %30.9 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** -40%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $2.38 | $2.35 | BEAT | +2.4% |
| Q3 FY25 | $1.88 | $1.75 | BEAT | +4.0% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1.12 | $1.30 | MISS | -0.6% |
| Q1 FY26 | $0.27 | $0.39 | +-30.8% EPS | -4.3% |

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $0.27 vs $0.39 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +-30.8% beat. D+1 movement: -4.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $1.32 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $1.32<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $105<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $143<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $1.32 + CapEx < $46.7M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.32<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $46.7M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $77<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $105<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $1.28 or CapEx ≥ $46.7M**

Threshold: EPS < $1.28<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $77 below SMA200 $112<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $95<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $0.27 vs $0.39 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -4.3% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $46.7M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 0.5%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $105 (+35.7% upside vs current $77)
- **High / Low:** $143 / $81
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 11 / 9 / 1
- **Analyst count:** 11 (last quarter), 52 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. revised_fy26_guidance

**Claim:** The company has revised its full year 2026 net sales guidance to a range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion due to weak market conditions.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As a result, we are adding net sales in the range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.5% to 9.6%."

**Numbers:** $14.6 billion, $15.6 billion, $1.1 billion, $1.5 billion, 7.5%, 9.6%

### 2. q2_2026_guidance

**Claim:** The company expects net sales for Q2 2026 to be between $3.75 billion and $4.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be between $300 million and $350 million.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For Q2, we expect net sales to be between $3.75 billion and $4.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be between $300 million and $350 million."

**Numbers:** $3.75 billion, $4.05 billion, $300 million, $350 million

### 3. cost_reduction_actions

**Claim:** The company has executed $100 million of cost actions as part of its downturn playbook.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As we touched on in February, we linked further into our downturn playbook with $100 million of cost actions, which includes $75 million in year-over-year cost reductions and $25 million in cost avoidance."

**Numbers:** $100 million, $75 million, $25 million

### 4. digital_platform_growth

**Claim:** The company's digital platform processed nearly $800 million of quotes in Q1, highlighting the platform's growth and importance.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In Q1, our digital platform processed nearly $800 million of quotes as we continue to automate key steps of the process."

**Numbers:** $800 million

### 5. share_repurchase_program

**Claim:** Since the inception of the buyback program in August of 2021, the company has repurchased nearly 50% of its total shares outstanding.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Since the inception of the buyback program in August of 2021, we have repurchased nearly 50% of our total shares outstanding."

**Numbers:** 50%, 2021


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*