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last_updated: 2026-05-09T11:32:22.331Z
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# Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-08 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:32:21.745Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $859.49 (▲ 1.00%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $31.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $430.00 – $868.08 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Mon 8 Jun | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $3.31 (+26% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $4.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $694 (-19.3% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 33/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived |

## Casey's General Stores, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$4.2B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$3.31</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 8 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 33

= MoonshotScore <strong>33</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Inside Sales Guidance

Casey's now expects inside same-store sales to increase between 3% to 4% and we expect an inside margin of 41% to 42% for fiscal year 2026.

> "The company now expects inside same-store sales to increase between 3% to 4% and we expect an inside margin of 41% to 42%."
> — Stephen Bramlage, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Grocery Margin Increase

Casey's continues to grow market share, supported by increased demand for higher margin items such as energy drinks and nicotine alternatives.

> "The grocery and general merchandise margin was 36%, an increase of 40 basis points from the prior year. The change was impacted by a favorable mix shift within the category, as well as cost of goods management, and that includes manufacturer-funded promotional activity, associated with alternative nicotine products."
> — Stephen Bramlage, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Inside Sales Growth

Casey's reported strong inside same-store sales growth of 3.3% for the quarter, representing a 7.5% increase on a two-year stack basis.

> "Inside same-store sales were up 3.3% for the second quarter, or 7.5% on a two-year stack basis, with an average margin of 42.4%."
> — Stephen Bramlage, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Fy26 Ebitda Guidance

Casey's has updated its fiscal year 2026 EBITDA guidance and now expects an increase of 15% to 17%.

> "Fiscal 2026 EBITDA is now expected to increase 15% to 17%."
> — Stephen Bramlage, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026

### 5. Fuel Market Share Growth

Casey's continues to grow market share in fuel sales despite an overall decline in the Mid Continent region.

> "According to OPIS fuel gallon sold data, the Mid Continent region saw an approximate 2% decline this quarter, so we believe we are continuing to grow market share."
> — Stephen Bramlage, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 6. Prepared Food Sales

Casey's prepared food and dispensed beverage sales were strong, up 4.8% for the quarter, representing a 10.3% increase on a two-year stack basis.

> "Same-store prepared food and dispensed beverage was quite strong, sales were up 4.8% or 10.3% on a two-year stack basis. With an average margin of 58.6%."
> — Stephen Bramlage, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q3 vs Q4: growth negative (-1.9%, contraction) |
| Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q3: low margin (25.7%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (7.9%) |
| Cash Runway | 6.0 | medium | FCF under pressure ($0.1B FCF vs $0.2B CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 74.7 overbought, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (61%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -19.3% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 75 |
| Klarman | bear | value · target upside -19.3% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -19.3% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Overvalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 74.7 — overbought (RSI 74.7) — geri çekilme baskısı
- **50d MA:** $738 — hisse %16.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $607 — hisse %41.7 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -27%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 | $2.63 | $1.94 | BEAT | +11.6% |
| Q1 FY26 | $5.77 | $5.02 | BEAT | +3.8% |
| Q2 FY26 | $5.53 | $5.19 | BEAT | -5.3% |
| Q3 FY26 | $3.49 | $3.00 | +16.3% EPS | +3.8% |

Q2 (December 10, 2025): EPS $3.49 vs $3.00 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +16.3% beat. D+1 movement: +3.8%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $3.31 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $3.31<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $694<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $860<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $3.31 + CapEx < $183.7M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.31<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $183.7M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $859<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $694<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $3.21 or CapEx ≥ $183.7M**

Threshold: EPS < $3.21<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $859 below SMA200 $607<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $516<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q2: EPS $3.49 vs $3.00 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +3.8% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $183.7M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q2 op margin 7.9%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $694 (-19.3% upside vs current $859)
- **High / Low:** $860 / $530
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 11 / 7 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 65 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. fuel_market_share_growth

**Claim:** Casey's continues to grow market share in fuel sales despite an overall decline in the Mid Continent region.

**Evidence (transcript):** "According to OPIS fuel gallon sold data, the Mid Continent region saw an approximate 2% decline this quarter, so we believe we are continuing to grow market share."

**Numbers:** 2%

### 2. inside_sales_growth

**Claim:** Casey's reported strong inside same-store sales growth of 3.3% for the quarter, representing a 7.5% increase on a two-year stack basis.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Inside same-store sales were up 3.3% for the second quarter, or 7.5% on a two-year stack basis, with an average margin of 42.4%."

**Numbers:** 3.3%, 7.5%, 42.4%

### 3. prepared_food_sales

**Claim:** Casey's prepared food and dispensed beverage sales were strong, up 4.8% for the quarter, representing a 10.3% increase on a two-year stack basis.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Same-store prepared food and dispensed beverage was quite strong, sales were up 4.8% or 10.3% on a two-year stack basis. With an average margin of 58.6%."

**Numbers:** 4.8%, 10.3%, 58.6%

### 4. grocery_margin_increase

**Claim:** Casey's continues to grow market share, supported by increased demand for higher margin items such as energy drinks and nicotine alternatives.

**Evidence (transcript):** "The grocery and general merchandise margin was 36%, an increase of 40 basis points from the prior year. The change was impacted by a favorable mix shift within the category, as well as cost of goods management, and that includes manufacturer-funded promotional activity, associated with alternative nicotine products."

**Numbers:** 36%, 40

### 5. fy26_ebitda_guidance

**Claim:** Casey's has updated its fiscal year 2026 EBITDA guidance and now expects an increase of 15% to 17%.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Fiscal 2026 EBITDA is now expected to increase 15% to 17%."

**Numbers:** 15%, 17%

### 6. inside_sales_guidance

**Claim:** Casey's now expects inside same-store sales to increase between 3% to 4% and we expect an inside margin of 41% to 42% for fiscal year 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "The company now expects inside same-store sales to increase between 3% to 4% and we expect an inside margin of 41% to 42%."

**Numbers:** 3%, 4%, 41%, 42%


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*