--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/cat last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:41:04.252Z --- # Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:41:03.115Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $889.67 (▼ -0.05%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $414.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $318.11 – $905.00 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 4 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $6.03 (+28% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $18.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $785 (-11.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Caterpillar Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $18.8B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $6.03^{[FMP est]}. 3 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Sales Growth Target Caterpillar now expects the compound annual growth rate for total enterprise sales and revenues to be between 6% and 9% between within '24 to 2030. > "We now expect the compound annual growth rate for total enterprise sales and revenues to be between 6% and 9% between within '24 to 2030." > — Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Backlog Growth Caterpillar's backlog grew to a record level, up 79% compared to the first quarter last year. > "Backlog grew to a record level of $63 billion, an increase of $28 billion or 79% compared to the first quarter last year." > — Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Capex Increase MP&E capital expenditures are expected to average between 4% and 5% MP&E sales through 2030. > "As a result, MP&E capital expenditures are expected to average between 4% and 5% MP&E sales through 2030." > — Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Power Generation Growth Power generation grew 48%, driven by strong demand for large gensets and turbines used in data center applications. > "Power generation grew 48%, driven by strong demand for large gensets and turbines used in data center applications with an increasing mix towards prime power." > — Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Data Center Agreement Caterpillar announced a new agreement to provide up to 2.1 gigawatts of large gas generator sets for prime power generation in support of data center, oil and gas and industrial applications. > "Yesterday, we announced another exciting opportunity to provide Pro Power up to 2.1 gigawatts of large gas generator sets for prime power generation in support of data center, oil and gas and industrial applications." > — Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Reciprocating Engine Capacity Increase Caterpillar is increasing its large reciprocating engine capacity from 2x 2024 levels to nearly 3x 2024 levels. > "As a result of these trends, I'm excited to announce that we are increasing our large reciprocating engine capacity from 2x 2024 levels to nearly 3x 2024 levels." > — Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 3.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+5.1%) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (35.1%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (17.7%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.5B, 4.8× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | average R&D (3.1%) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 75.0 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (54%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -11.8% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 75 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -11.8% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -11.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 75.0 — overbought (RSI 75.0) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $750 — hisse %18.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $591 — hisse %50.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -2% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $4.72 | $4.89 | MISS | -1.5% | | Q3 FY25 | $4.95 | $4.53 | BEAT | -0.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $5.16 | $4.71 | BEAT | -1.2% | | Q1 FY26 | $5.54 | $4.65 | +19.1% EPS | -0.0% | Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $5.54 vs $4.65 est^[FMP], +19.1% beat. D+1 movement: -0.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $6.03 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $6.03^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $785^{[FMP target]}; high target $1165^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $6.03 + CapEx < $323.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $6.03^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $323.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $890^[FMP] and median $785^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $5.85 or CapEx ≥ $323.0M** Threshold: EPS < $5.85^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $890 below SMA200 $591^[FMP], if rejection continues, $502^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $5.54 vs $4.65 beat^[FMP], stock -0.0% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $323.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 17.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $785 (-11.8% upside vs current $890) - **High / Low:** $1165 / $650 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 15 / 11 / 2 - **Analyst count:** 11 (last quarter), 96 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. backlog_growth **Claim:** Caterpillar's backlog grew to a record level, up 79% compared to the first quarter last year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Backlog grew to a record level of $63 billion, an increase of $28 billion or 79% compared to the first quarter last year." **Numbers:** $63 billion, $28 billion, 79% ### 2. power_generation_growth **Claim:** Power generation grew 48%, driven by strong demand for large gensets and turbines used in data center applications. **Evidence (transcript):** "Power generation grew 48%, driven by strong demand for large gensets and turbines used in data center applications with an increasing mix towards prime power." **Numbers:** 48% ### 3. data_center_agreement **Claim:** Caterpillar announced a new agreement to provide up to 2.1 gigawatts of large gas generator sets for prime power generation in support of data center, oil and gas and industrial applications. **Evidence (transcript):** "Yesterday, we announced another exciting opportunity to provide Pro Power up to 2.1 gigawatts of large gas generator sets for prime power generation in support of data center, oil and gas and industrial applications." **Numbers:** 2.1 ### 4. reciprocating_engine_capacity_increase **Claim:** Caterpillar is increasing its large reciprocating engine capacity from 2x 2024 levels to nearly 3x 2024 levels. **Evidence (transcript):** "As a result of these trends, I'm excited to announce that we are increasing our large reciprocating engine capacity from 2x 2024 levels to nearly 3x 2024 levels." **Numbers:** 2x, 2024, 3x ### 5. capex_increase **Claim:** MP&E capital expenditures are expected to average between 4% and 5% MP&E sales through 2030. **Evidence (transcript):** "As a result, MP&E capital expenditures are expected to average between 4% and 5% MP&E sales through 2030." **Numbers:** 4%, 5%, 2030 ### 6. sales_growth_target **Claim:** Caterpillar now expects the compound annual growth rate for total enterprise sales and revenues to be between 6% and 9% between within '24 to 2030. **Evidence (transcript):** "We now expect the compound annual growth rate for total enterprise sales and revenues to be between 6% and 9% between within '24 to 2030." **Numbers:** 6%, 9%, 24, 2030 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*