--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ceg last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:09:27.039Z --- # Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-11 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T10:09:26.069Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $307.81 (▼ -1.66%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $96.1B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $241.46 – $412.70 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 11 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.43 (+14% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $8.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $406 (+31.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Constellation Energy Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $8.5B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.43^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. 3.9B Growth Projects We are reinvesting $3.9 billion in growth projects that deliver compelling returns of at least 10% on an unlevered basis. > "I'm also excited to share that we are increasing our share repurchase authorization to $5 billion, enabled by our strong balance sheet and significant free cash flow while still growing our dividend and reinvesting $3.9 billion in growth projects that deliver compelling returns of at least 10% on an unlevered basis." > — Shane Smith, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. 2026 Eps Guidance We are initiating our 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance at $11 per share to $12 per share. > "Beginning on Slide 20, we are initiating our 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance at $11 per share to $12 per share." > — Shane Smith, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Available Clean Output Constellation still has about 147 million megawatt-hours available for contracting, an opportunity no one else can match. > "But even after that, we still have about 147 million megawatt-hours available for contracting, an opportunity no one else can match." > — Joseph Dominguez, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. 20pct Cagr Through 2029 Constellation is targeting a 20% CAGR on base earnings growth through 2029. > "Today, Shane and I intend to do more than provide 2026 guidance. We're going to provide a longer-term and more comprehensive update on the business, describe what makes Constellation special and explain why we think Constellation has unmatched opportunities to grow, beginning with a 20% CAGR on base earnings growth through 2029." > — Joseph Dominguez, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. Long Term Contracts Executed Constellation and Calpine have executed deals for over 10,000 megawatts of our fleet, serving a wide range of customers. > "So we show here on this slide that Constellation and Calpine have executed deals for over 10,000 megawatts of our fleet, serving a wide range of customers, all at compelling prices that provide the reliability and price visibility our customers are looking for, as well as the revenue certainty that we desire." > — Joseph Dominguez, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 6. Buyback Increase To 5B Constellation's Board has approved an increase in our buyback authority to $5 billion, underscoring our confidence in the strategy. > "Today, I'm pleased to share that Constellation's Board has approved an increase in our buyback authority to $5 billion, underscoring our confidence in the strategy." > — Joseph Dominguez, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-19.6%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 10.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (287.5%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (2.7%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.2B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.9 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (77%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +31.9% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 55 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +31.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +31.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 54.9 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $301 — hisse %2.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $327 — hisse %5.9 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -24% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $2.14 | $2.18 | MISS | -2.1% | | Q2 FY25 | $1.91 | $1.84 | BEAT | -0.2% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.04 | $3.11 | MISS | +0.7% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.30 | $2.28 | +0.9% EPS | +4.2% | Q4 (March 31, 2026): EPS $2.30 vs $2.28 est^[FMP], +0.9% beat. D+1 movement: +4.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.43 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.43^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $406^{[FMP target]}; high target $460^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.43 + CapEx < $986.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.43^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $986.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $308^[FMP] and median $406^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.36 or CapEx ≥ $986.0M** Threshold: EPS < $2.36^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $308 below SMA200 $327^[FMP], if rejection continues, $278^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $2.30 vs $2.28 beat^[FMP], stock +4.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $986.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 2.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $406 (+31.9% upside vs current $308) - **High / Low:** $460 / $358 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 17 / 4 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 5 (last quarter), 44 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. 20pct_cagr_through_2029 **Claim:** Constellation is targeting a 20% CAGR on base earnings growth through 2029. **Evidence (transcript):** "Today, Shane and I intend to do more than provide 2026 guidance. We're going to provide a longer-term and more comprehensive update on the business, describe what makes Constellation special and explain why we think Constellation has unmatched opportunities to grow, beginning with a 20% CAGR on base earnings growth through 2029." **Numbers:** 2026, 20%, 2029 ### 2. buyback_increase_to_5B **Claim:** Constellation's Board has approved an increase in our buyback authority to $5 billion, underscoring our confidence in the strategy. **Evidence (transcript):** "Today, I'm pleased to share that Constellation's Board has approved an increase in our buyback authority to $5 billion, underscoring our confidence in the strategy." **Numbers:** $5 billion ### 3. 2026_eps_guidance **Claim:** We are initiating our 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance at $11 per share to $12 per share. **Evidence (transcript):** "Beginning on Slide 20, we are initiating our 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance at $11 per share to $12 per share." **Numbers:** 2026, $11, $12 ### 4. 3.9B_growth_projects **Claim:** We are reinvesting $3.9 billion in growth projects that deliver compelling returns of at least 10% on an unlevered basis. **Evidence (transcript):** "I'm also excited to share that we are increasing our share repurchase authorization to $5 billion, enabled by our strong balance sheet and significant free cash flow while still growing our dividend and reinvesting $3.9 billion in growth projects that deliver compelling returns of at least 10% on an unlevered basis." **Numbers:** $3.9 billion, 10%, $5 billion ### 5. long_term_contracts_executed **Claim:** Constellation and Calpine have executed deals for over 10,000 megawatts of our fleet, serving a wide range of customers. **Evidence (transcript):** "So we show here on this slide that Constellation and Calpine have executed deals for over 10,000 megawatts of our fleet, serving a wide range of customers, all at compelling prices that provide the reliability and price visibility our customers are looking for, as well as the revenue certainty that we desire." **Numbers:** 10,000 ### 6. available_clean_output **Claim:** Constellation still has about 147 million megawatt-hours available for contracting, an opportunity no one else can match. **Evidence (transcript):** "But even after that, we still have about 147 million megawatt-hours available for contracting, an opportunity no one else can match." **Numbers:** 147 million --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*