--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/cof last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:39:39.437Z --- # Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:39:38.255Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $191.91 (▲ 0.32%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $118.8B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $174.98 – $259.64 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 28 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $4.79 (-13% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $15.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $270 (+40.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 63/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Capital One Financial Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $15.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $4.79^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 63 = MoonshotScore 63^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Domestic Card Purchase Volume Growth Domestic card purchase volume growth was 40% driven by the addition of Discover, while excluding Discover, growth was about 8%. > "Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 40% driven primarily by the addition of Discover purchase as well as continued strong growth in our heavy spender franchise. Excluding Discover year-over-year purchase volume growth was about 8%." > — Richard Fairbank, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Domestic Card Loan Balance Growth Ending loan balances increased 69% year-over-year, also largely as a result of adding Discover card loans. Excluding Discover, ending loans grew about 3.9% year-over-year. > "Ending loan balances increased 69% year-over-year, also largely as a result of adding Discover card loans. Excluding Discover, ending loans grew about 3.9% year-over-year." > — Richard Fairbank, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Domestic Card Revenue Growth Revenue was up about from the first quarter of 2025, largely driven by the addition of Discover revenue. Excluding Discover, year-over-year revenue growth was about 6.8% driven by underlying growth in purchase volume and loans. > "Revenue was up about from the first quarter of 2025, largely driven by the addition of Discover revenue. Excluding Discover, year-over-year revenue growth was about 6.8% driven by underlying growth in purchase volume and loans." > — Richard Fairbank, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Consumer Banking Deposit Growth Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 35%, driven largely by the addition of Discover deposits. > "Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 35%, driven largely by the addition of Discover deposits." > — Richard Fairbank, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Domestic Card Charge Off Rate Improvement The domestic card charge-off rate for the first quarter was 5.1%, up 17 basis points from the prior quarter, in line with normal seasonality. The charge-off rate improved by 109 basis points year-over-year. About half of this improvement is the result of incorporating Discover's card portfolio into our domestic card business. > "The domestic card charge-off rate for the first quarter was 5.1%, up 17 basis points from the prior quarter, in line with normal seasonality. The charge-off rate improved by 109 basis points year-over-year. About half of this improvement is the result of incorporating Discover's card portfolio into our domestic card business." > — Richard Fairbank, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Domestic Card Delinquency Rate Improvement Our domestic card delinquency rate was 3.7%, down 29 basis points from the prior quarter and down 55 basis points from a year ago. > "Our domestic card delinquency rate was 3.7%, down 29 basis points from the prior quarter and down 55 basis points from a year ago." > — Richard Fairbank, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 9.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+17.7%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (57.8%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (14.0%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($9.0B, 7.9× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 47.5 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (78%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +40.7% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 47 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +40.7% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 2/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +40.7% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 47.5 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $191 — hisse %0.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $214 — hisse %10.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +7% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $5.48 | $4.05 | BEAT | +0.9% | | Q3 FY25 | $5.95 | $4.49 | BEAT | +1.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $3.86 | $4.14 | MISS | -7.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.42 | $4.50 | +-1.8% EPS | -1.5% | Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $4.42 vs $4.50 est^[FMP], +-1.8% beat. D+1 movement: -1.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $4.79 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $4.79^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $270^{[FMP target]}; high target $300^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $4.79 + CapEx < $1.1B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.79^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $1.1B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $192^[FMP] and median $270^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.65 or CapEx ≥ $1.1B** Threshold: EPS < $4.65^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $192 below SMA200 $214^[FMP], if rejection continues, $182^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $4.42 vs $4.50 beat^[FMP], stock -1.5% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $1.1B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 14.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $270 (+40.7% upside vs current $192) - **High / Low:** $300 / $213 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 18 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 62 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. domestic_card_purchase_volume_growth **Claim:** Domestic card purchase volume growth was 40% driven by the addition of Discover, while excluding Discover, growth was about 8%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 40% driven primarily by the addition of Discover purchase as well as continued strong growth in our heavy spender franchise. Excluding Discover year-over-year purchase volume growth was about 8%." **Numbers:** 40%, 8% ### 2. domestic_card_loan_balance_growth **Claim:** Ending loan balances increased 69% year-over-year, also largely as a result of adding Discover card loans. Excluding Discover, ending loans grew about 3.9% year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Ending loan balances increased 69% year-over-year, also largely as a result of adding Discover card loans. Excluding Discover, ending loans grew about 3.9% year-over-year." **Numbers:** 69%, 3.9% ### 3. domestic_card_revenue_growth **Claim:** Revenue was up about from the first quarter of 2025, largely driven by the addition of Discover revenue. Excluding Discover, year-over-year revenue growth was about 6.8% driven by underlying growth in purchase volume and loans. **Evidence (transcript):** "Revenue was up about from the first quarter of 2025, largely driven by the addition of Discover revenue. Excluding Discover, year-over-year revenue growth was about 6.8% driven by underlying growth in purchase volume and loans." **Numbers:** 6.8% ### 4. domestic_card_charge_off_rate_improvement **Claim:** The domestic card charge-off rate for the first quarter was 5.1%, up 17 basis points from the prior quarter, in line with normal seasonality. The charge-off rate improved by 109 basis points year-over-year. About half of this improvement is the result of incorporating Discover's card portfolio into our domestic card business. **Evidence (transcript):** "The domestic card charge-off rate for the first quarter was 5.1%, up 17 basis points from the prior quarter, in line with normal seasonality. The charge-off rate improved by 109 basis points year-over-year. About half of this improvement is the result of incorporating Discover's card portfolio into our domestic card business." **Numbers:** 5.1%, 17, 109 ### 5. domestic_card_delinquency_rate_improvement **Claim:** Our domestic card delinquency rate was 3.7%, down 29 basis points from the prior quarter and down 55 basis points from a year ago. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our domestic card delinquency rate was 3.7%, down 29 basis points from the prior quarter and down 55 basis points from a year ago." **Numbers:** 3.7%, 29, 55 ### 6. consumer_banking_deposit_growth **Claim:** Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 35%, driven largely by the addition of Discover deposits. **Evidence (transcript):** "Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 35%, driven largely by the addition of Discover deposits." **Numbers:** 35% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*