--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/cohr last_updated: 2026-05-05T21:39:23.817Z --- # Coherent, Inc. (COHR) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T21:39:23.528Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $335.73 (▲ 1.77%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $53.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $66.71 – $364.80 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 6 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.41 (+55% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $235 (-30.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 51/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Coherent, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.8B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.41^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 51 = MoonshotScore 51^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. FY27 Revenue Growth Coherent expects both fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 to be strong growth years for Coherent, given our exceptional demand from our customers and the rapid expansion of our production capacity. > "In summary, we delivered strong revenue and EPS growth in Q2 and expect both fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 to be strong growth years for Coherent, given our exceptional demand from our customers and the rapid expansion of our production capacity." > — James Anderson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Datacenter Segment Growth Coherent's data center business revenue grew by 14% sequentially and 36% year-over-year in Q2, with double-digit sequential growth expected in both the March and June quarters. > "In our data center business, we drove a substantial acceleration in our sequential growth rate, with Q2 revenue growing 14% sequentially and 36% year over year." > — James Anderson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Data Center Growth Coherent anticipates sustained strong revenue growth in the coming quarters, driven by robust demand fueled by AI data center growth and increasing production capacity. > "Given the extraordinary strength and visibility of demand from our customers, combined with our continued rapid expansion in production capacity, we expect a period of sustained strong revenue growth over the coming quarters." > — James Anderson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Book To Bill Ratio Coherent's data center bookings experienced another step function increase with a book-to-bill ratio that exceeded 4x as customer demand continues to increase and customers place orders further out in time. > "In Q2, we experienced another step function increase in our data center bookings with a book-to-bill ratio that exceeded 4x as customer demand continues to increase and customers place orders further out in time, which provides us with strong visibility for the coming quarters." > — James Anderson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Indium Phosphide Production Coherent is on track to double its internal indium phosphide production by the fourth quarter, driven by its ramp of six-inch wafer production. > "In Q2, and we are executing on track to our plan to double our internal indium phosphide production by the fourth quarter of this calendar year." > — James Anderson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 6. CPO Design Win Coherent recently secured an exceptionally large purchase order from a market-leading AI data center customer for a CPO solution that includes our new high-power CW laser that began sampling last year, with initial revenue expected toward the end of this calendar year. > "In particular, we recently secured an exceptionally large purchase order from a market-leading AI data center customer for a CPO solution that includes our new high-power CW laser that began sampling last year." > — James Anderson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 6.0 | medium | Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+12.6%) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q2: average margin (37.0%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (11.8%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.1B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (10.0%) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 61.8 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (77%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -30.0% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 62 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -30.0% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -30.0% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 61.8 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $282 — hisse %19.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $181 — hisse %85.7 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -10% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $0.91 | $0.86 | BEAT | +1.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.00 | $0.92 | BEAT | -19.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.16 | $1.04 | BEAT | +18.3% | | Q2 FY26 | $1.29 | $1.21 | +6.6% EPS | -0.8% | Q2 (February 4, 2026): EPS $1.29 vs $1.21 est^[FMP], +6.6% beat. D+1 movement: -0.8%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.41 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.41^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $235^{[FMP target]}; high target $455^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.41 + CapEx < $153.6M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.41^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $153.6M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $336^[FMP] and median $235^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.37 or CapEx ≥ $153.6M** Threshold: EPS < $1.37^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $336 below SMA200 $181^[FMP], if rejection continues, $154^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $1.29 vs $1.21 beat^[FMP], stock -0.8% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $153.6M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 11.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $235 (-30.0% upside vs current $336) - **High / Low:** $455 / $170 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 17 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 50 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. data_center_growth **Claim:** Coherent anticipates sustained strong revenue growth in the coming quarters, driven by robust demand fueled by AI data center growth and increasing production capacity. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given the extraordinary strength and visibility of demand from our customers, combined with our continued rapid expansion in production capacity, we expect a period of sustained strong revenue growth over the coming quarters." **Numbers:** — ### 2. datacenter_segment_growth **Claim:** Coherent's data center business revenue grew by 14% sequentially and 36% year-over-year in Q2, with double-digit sequential growth expected in both the March and June quarters. **Evidence (transcript):** "In our data center business, we drove a substantial acceleration in our sequential growth rate, with Q2 revenue growing 14% sequentially and 36% year over year." **Numbers:** 14%, 36% ### 3. book_to_bill_ratio **Claim:** Coherent's data center bookings experienced another step function increase with a book-to-bill ratio that exceeded 4x as customer demand continues to increase and customers place orders further out in time. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Q2, we experienced another step function increase in our data center bookings with a book-to-bill ratio that exceeded 4x as customer demand continues to increase and customers place orders further out in time, which provides us with strong visibility for the coming quarters." **Numbers:** 4x ### 4. indium_phosphide_production **Claim:** Coherent is on track to double its internal indium phosphide production by the fourth quarter, driven by its ramp of six-inch wafer production. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Q2, and we are executing on track to our plan to double our internal indium phosphide production by the fourth quarter of this calendar year." **Numbers:** — ### 5. CPO_design_win **Claim:** Coherent recently secured an exceptionally large purchase order from a market-leading AI data center customer for a CPO solution that includes our new high-power CW laser that began sampling last year, with initial revenue expected toward the end of this calendar year. **Evidence (transcript):** "In particular, we recently secured an exceptionally large purchase order from a market-leading AI data center customer for a CPO solution that includes our new high-power CW laser that began sampling last year." **Numbers:** — ### 6. FY27_revenue_growth **Claim:** Coherent expects both fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 to be strong growth years for Coherent, given our exceptional demand from our customers and the rapid expansion of our production capacity. **Evidence (transcript):** "In summary, we delivered strong revenue and EPS growth in Q2 and expect both fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 to be strong growth years for Coherent, given our exceptional demand from our customers and the rapid expansion of our production capacity." **Numbers:** 2026, 2027 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*