--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/cop last_updated: 2026-08-10T06:18:15.411Z --- # ConocoPhillips (COP) Q2 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-08-10T06:18:13.842Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $117.61 (▲ 0.73%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $143.3B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $85.57 – $135.87 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 5 Nov | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.36 (+47% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $17.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $146 (+23.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 69/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## ConocoPhillips — Q2 FY2027 Expectations Q2 consensus: revenue $17.2B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.36^{[FMP est]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 69 = MoonshotScore 69^{[multi-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Fy Q3 Guidance ConocoPhillips maintained its full-year guidance and expects Q3 production to be in the range of 2.290 to 2.320 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by a ramp in Qatar and continued Lower 48 growth. > "Our full year guidance items are unchanged, We remain on track to deliver our plan. For distributions, we continue to target returning 45% of our CFO to shareholders this year. The third quarter production our guidance range is 2.290 to 2.320 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This improvement from the second quarter is driven by a production ramp in Qatar, and continued Lower 48 growth." > — Andrew O'Brien, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Capex Fcf Inflection The peak CapEx for the Willow project is behind, and the company expects CapEx to move lower as Willow comes online in 2029, leading to a $7 billion free cash flow inflection. > "Peak CapEx of Willow is behind us. So we so the first part of your answer is we passed the peak of Willow. And then the second part of your answer we absolutely expect our CapEx to move lower from here. Particularly as Willow comes online early in 2029. So the short answer is yes. CapEx comes down. We remain firmly on track to deliver our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029." > — Andrew O'Brien, CFO / Ryan Lance, CEO, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Qatar Alaska Outlook While Qatar's Ras Laffan facilities were largely shut in Q2, a ramp-up is expected in Q3, and the Alaska exploration program is laying the groundwork to leverage Willow infrastructure for decades. > "As you saw in the second quarter, Ras Laffan was largely shut in, although we did see some pretty limited volumes coming out of that business. And that was as you would expect, you know, it is a function of the ramp down that took place early in the quarter. Naturally, there is a need to support local demand and consumption there in country. And they were able to achieve some of that certainly through our train. our guidance does assume a ramp, across the quarter. This lease sale as well as our multiyear exploration program that we have been and will continue to execute lays the groundwork for us to continue to leverage Willow and that infrastructure we are building there for decades into the future." > — Kirk L. Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and technical functions, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Portfolio Optimization Lng Expansion The company achieved its $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule, expanded its commercial LNG offtake portfolio to 12 million tonnes per annum, and secured new low-cost growth opportunities in Iraq and Syria. > "First, we achieved our $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule. With $1.7 billion of non core lower 48 asset sales in July. Second, we recently signed 2 LNG offtake agreements each for 1 million tonnes per annum. These additions bring our total offtake to 12 million tonnes per annum. And third, we signed strategic agreements for low cost supply growth opportunities in Iraq and Syria." > — Andrew O'Brien, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Q2 Performance Shareholder Returns ConocoPhillips delivered strong financial performance in Q2 with production above guidance, record Permian output, and increased shareholder distributions to $3 billion. > "ConocoPhillips delivered strong second quarter results Production was above the high end of our guidance range with our peer leading Permian position achieving a new record of over 900 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. We generated over $4 billion of free cash flow, and we increased shareholder distributions to 3 billion doubling our share repurchases from the prior quarter." > — Ryan Lance, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+20.8%) | | Gross Margin | 10.0 | strong | Q2: very high margin (100.0%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin very strong (33.6%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 8.0 | strong | FCF positive but absorbed ($5.8B vs $6.0B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.6 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (72%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +23.7% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 55 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +23.7% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +23.7% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 54.6 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $113 — hisse %3.7 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $108 — hisse %8.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +10% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $1.61 | $1.41 | BEAT | +1.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.02 | $1.07 | MISS | +2.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.89 | $1.72 | BEAT | -2.1% | | Q2 FY26 | $3.24 | $2.90 | +11.7% EPS | +0.7% | Q2 (August 6, 2026): EPS $3.24 vs $2.90 est^[FMP], +11.7% beat. D+1 movement: +0.7%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q2 EPS > $2.36 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.36^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $146^{[FMP target]}; high target $189^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.36 + CapEx < $6.0B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.36^{[FMP est]}, Q2 CapEx < $6.0B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $118^[FMP] and median $146^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.29 or CapEx ≥ $6.0B** Threshold: EPS < $2.29^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $118 below SMA200 $108^[FMP], if rejection continues, $92^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $3.24 vs $2.90 beat^[FMP], stock +0.7% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $6.0B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Connie Haines Welsh Q2 transcript: "Peak CapEx of Willow is behind us. So we so the first part of your answer is we passed the peak of Willow. And then the second part of your answer we absolutely expect our CapEx to move lower from here. Particularly as Willow comes online early in 2029."^{[Connie Haines Welsh transcript]}. Q2 op margin 33.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q2 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $146 (+23.7% upside vs current $118) - **High / Low:** $189 / $128 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 18 / 7 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 11 (last quarter), 109 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. q2_performance_shareholder_returns **Claim:** ConocoPhillips delivered strong financial performance in Q2 with production above guidance, record Permian output, and increased shareholder distributions to $3 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "ConocoPhillips delivered strong second quarter results Production was above the high end of our guidance range with our peer leading Permian position achieving a new record of over 900 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. We generated over $4 billion of free cash flow, and we increased shareholder distributions to 3 billion doubling our share repurchases from the prior quarter." **Numbers:** 900 thousand, $4 billion, 3 billion ### 2. portfolio_optimization_lng_expansion **Claim:** The company achieved its $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule, expanded its commercial LNG offtake portfolio to 12 million tonnes per annum, and secured new low-cost growth opportunities in Iraq and Syria. **Evidence (transcript):** "First, we achieved our $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule. With $1.7 billion of non core lower 48 asset sales in July. Second, we recently signed 2 LNG offtake agreements each for 1 million tonnes per annum. These additions bring our total offtake to 12 million tonnes per annum. And third, we signed strategic agreements for low cost supply growth opportunities in Iraq and Syria." **Numbers:** $5 billion, $1.7 billion, 2, 1 million, 12 million ### 3. fy_q3_guidance **Claim:** ConocoPhillips maintained its full-year guidance and expects Q3 production to be in the range of 2.290 to 2.320 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by a ramp in Qatar and continued Lower 48 growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our full year guidance items are unchanged, We remain on track to deliver our plan. For distributions, we continue to target returning 45% of our CFO to shareholders this year. The third quarter production our guidance range is 2.290 to 2.320 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This improvement from the second quarter is driven by a production ramp in Qatar, and continued Lower 48 growth." **Numbers:** 45%, 2.290, 2.320 ### 4. capex_fcf_inflection **Claim:** The peak CapEx for the Willow project is behind, and the company expects CapEx to move lower as Willow comes online in 2029, leading to a $7 billion free cash flow inflection. **Evidence (transcript):** "Peak CapEx of Willow is behind us. So we so the first part of your answer is we passed the peak of Willow. And then the second part of your answer we absolutely expect our CapEx to move lower from here. Particularly as Willow comes online early in 2029. So the short answer is yes. CapEx comes down. We remain firmly on track to deliver our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029." **Numbers:** 2029, $7 billion ### 5. qatar_alaska_outlook **Claim:** While Qatar's Ras Laffan facilities were largely shut in Q2, a ramp-up is expected in Q3, and the Alaska exploration program is laying the groundwork to leverage Willow infrastructure for decades. **Evidence (transcript):** "As you saw in the second quarter, Ras Laffan was largely shut in, although we did see some pretty limited volumes coming out of that business. And that was as you would expect, you know, it is a function of the ramp down that took place early in the quarter. Naturally, there is a need to support local demand and consumption there in country. And they were able to achieve some of that certainly through our train. our guidance does assume a ramp, across the quarter. This lease sale as well as our multiyear exploration program that we have been and will continue to execute lays the groundwork for us to continue to leverage Willow and that infrastructure we are building there for decades into the future." **Numbers:** 2027, 2029, 20 thirties --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-08-10), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*