--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/cost last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:39:30.426Z --- # Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:39:29.296Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $1011.70 (▼ -0.28%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $448.8B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $844.06 – $1067.08 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $4.95 (+16% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $68.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $1100 (+8.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Costco Wholesale Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $68.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $4.95^{[FMP est]}. 4 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Membership Growth COST ended the quarter with 82.1 million total paid members, up 4.8% versus last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year. > "We ended the quarter with 82.1 million total paid members, up 4.8% versus last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year." > — Gary Millerchip, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Digital Sales Growth COST's digitally-enabled sales saw personalized product recommendation carousels drive over $470 million of e-commerce sales in the quarter. > "In Q2, our personalized product recommendation carousels drove over $470 million of e-commerce sales, and our newly modernized product display pages are driving incremental sales on our dot-com site as well as increased traffic to our same-day sites." > — Gary Millerchip, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Membership Renewal Rates COST's U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%, down 10 basis points from last quarter; and the worldwide rate came in at 89.7%, unchanged from last quarter. > "In terms of renewal rates, at Q2 end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%, down 10 basis points from last quarter; and the worldwide rate came in at 89.7%, unchanged from last quarter." > — Gary Millerchip, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Kirkland Signature Value COST notes that Kirkland Signature (KS) items typically offer 15% to 20% value compared to the national brand alternative with equal or better quality. > "Kirkland Signature remains a top focus to deliver great value for our members with KS items typically offering 15% to 20% value compared to the national brand alternative with equal or better quality." > — Gary Millerchip, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. New Warehouse Openings COST expects 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and is targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years. > "We currently expect to have 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and are targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years." > — Ron Vachris, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 5.0 | medium | Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+10.1%) | | Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q2: low margin (12.8%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (3.7%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 9.0 | strong | FCF strong ($1.7B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 55.5 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (61%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +8.7% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 56 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +8.7% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +8.7% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 55.5 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $997 — hisse %1.5 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $951 — hisse %6.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -4% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $4.28 | $4.24 | BEAT | +3.1% | | Q4 FY25 | $5.87 | $5.80 | BEAT | -2.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.34 | $4.27 | BEAT | -0.0% | | Q2 FY26 | $4.58 | $4.55 | +0.7% EPS | +1.6% | Q2 (March 5, 2026): EPS $4.58 vs $4.55 est^[FMP], +0.7% beat. D+1 movement: +1.6%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $4.95 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $4.95^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $1100^{[FMP target]}; high target $1175^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $4.95 + CapEx < $1.3B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.95^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $1.3B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $1012^[FMP] and median $1100^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.80 or CapEx ≥ $1.3B** Threshold: EPS < $4.80^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $1012 below SMA200 $951^[FMP], if rejection continues, $808^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $4.58 vs $4.55 beat^[FMP], stock +1.6% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $1.3B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Gary Millerchip Q2 transcript: "Capital expenditure in Q2 was $1.29 billion."^{[Gary Millerchip transcript]}. Q2 op margin 3.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $1100 (+8.7% upside vs current $1012) - **High / Low:** $1175 / $769 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 22 / 12 / 2 - **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 131 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. new_warehouse_openings **Claim:** COST expects 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and is targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years. **Evidence (transcript):** "We currently expect to have 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and are targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years." **Numbers:** 28, 30 ### 2. digital_sales_growth **Claim:** COST's digitally-enabled sales saw personalized product recommendation carousels drive over $470 million of e-commerce sales in the quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Q2, our personalized product recommendation carousels drove over $470 million of e-commerce sales, and our newly modernized product display pages are driving incremental sales on our dot-com site as well as increased traffic to our same-day sites." **Numbers:** 470 ### 3. membership_renewal_rates **Claim:** COST's U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%, down 10 basis points from last quarter; and the worldwide rate came in at 89.7%, unchanged from last quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "In terms of renewal rates, at Q2 end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%, down 10 basis points from last quarter; and the worldwide rate came in at 89.7%, unchanged from last quarter." **Numbers:** 92.1, 10, 89.7 ### 4. membership_growth **Claim:** COST ended the quarter with 82.1 million total paid members, up 4.8% versus last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "We ended the quarter with 82.1 million total paid members, up 4.8% versus last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year." **Numbers:** 82.1, 4.8, 147.2, 4.7 ### 5. kirkland_signature_value **Claim:** COST notes that Kirkland Signature (KS) items typically offer 15% to 20% value compared to the national brand alternative with equal or better quality. **Evidence (transcript):** "Kirkland Signature remains a top focus to deliver great value for our members with KS items typically offering 15% to 20% value compared to the national brand alternative with equal or better quality." **Numbers:** 15%, 20% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*