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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/cpay
last_updated: 2026-05-09T13:58:51.433Z
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# Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T13:58:50.996Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $343.99 (▲ 12.51%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $22.7B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $252.84 – $361.99 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Wed 5 Aug | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $6.23 (+21% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $1.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $380 (+10.5% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 47/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Corpay, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations

Q1 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$1.3B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$6.23</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 4 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** A- · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 47

= MoonshotScore <strong>47</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Corporate Payments Growth

Corporate Payments grew 16%, that's 18%, excluding flow compression, and did reach 40% of our overall revenues in the quarter.

> "Corporate Payments grew 16%, that's 18%, excluding flow compression, and did reach 40% of our overall revenues in the quarter."
> — Ronald F. Clarke, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Organic Revenue Growth

Corpay continues to expect 10% organic revenue growth for the year.

> "We do continue to expect 10% organic revenue growth for the year, which again is our most important measure of durability."
> — Ronald F. Clarke, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Fy26 Eps Guidance

Corpay is raising full year 2026 cash EPS guidance to $26.70 at the midpoint.

> "On the earnings side, we are raising full year 2026 cash EPS guidance to $26.70 at the midpoint."
> — Ronald F. Clarke, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Fy26 Revenue Guidance

Corpay is raising full year 2026 revenue guidance to $5.290 billion at the midpoint.

> "So we're raising full year 2026 revenue guidance today to $5.290 billion at the midpoint."
> — Ronald F. Clarke, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Alpha Growth

Alpha grew organic revenue 17% in Q1, that's excluding the flow compression.

> "So Alpha grew organic revenue 17% in Q1. That's excluding the flow compression."
> — Ronald F. Clarke, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 6. Avid Ebitda Growth

Avid grew EBITDA 50% in the quarter.

> "And Avid grew EBITDA 50% in the quarter."
> — Ronald F. Clarke, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 7.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+14.4%) |
| Gross Margin | 0.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (0.0%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (50.4%, scale leverage) |
| Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.1B, external financing needed) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 68.4 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (79%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +10.5% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 68 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +10.5% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +10.5% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Strong
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 68.4 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $311 — hisse %10.7 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $308 — hisse %11.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** +75%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $5.13 | $5.12 | BEAT | -3.4% |
| Q3 FY25 | $5.70 | $5.63 | BEAT | +6.2% |
| Q4 FY25 | $6.04 | $5.95 | BEAT | +11.6% |
| Q1 FY26 | $5.80 | $5.50 | +5.5% EPS | +12.5% |

Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +5.5% beat. D+1 movement: +12.5%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q1 EPS > $6.23 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $6.23<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $380<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $390<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $6.23 + CapEx < $51.1M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $6.23<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q1 CapEx < $51.1M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $344<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $380<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $6.04 or CapEx ≥ $51.1M**

Threshold: EPS < $6.04<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $344 below SMA200 $308<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $262<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +12.5% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $51.1M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 50.4%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $380 (+10.5% upside vs current $344)
- **High / Low:** $390 / $340
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 11 / 3 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 26 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. fy26_revenue_guidance

**Claim:** Corpay is raising full year 2026 revenue guidance to $5.290 billion at the midpoint.

**Evidence (transcript):** "So we're raising full year 2026 revenue guidance today to $5.290 billion at the midpoint."

**Numbers:** $5.290 billion

### 2. fy26_eps_guidance

**Claim:** Corpay is raising full year 2026 cash EPS guidance to $26.70 at the midpoint.

**Evidence (transcript):** "On the earnings side, we are raising full year 2026 cash EPS guidance to $26.70 at the midpoint."

**Numbers:** $26.70

### 3. organic_revenue_growth

**Claim:** Corpay continues to expect 10% organic revenue growth for the year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We do continue to expect 10% organic revenue growth for the year, which again is our most important measure of durability."

**Numbers:** 10%

### 4. corporate_payments_growth

**Claim:** Corporate Payments grew 16%, that's 18%, excluding flow compression, and did reach 40% of our overall revenues in the quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Corporate Payments grew 16%, that's 18%, excluding flow compression, and did reach 40% of our overall revenues in the quarter."

**Numbers:** 16%, 18%, 40%

### 5. alpha_growth

**Claim:** Alpha grew organic revenue 17% in Q1, that's excluding the flow compression.

**Evidence (transcript):** "So Alpha grew organic revenue 17% in Q1. That's excluding the flow compression."

**Numbers:** 17%

### 6. avid_ebitda_growth

**Claim:** Avid grew EBITDA 50% in the quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "And Avid grew EBITDA 50% in the quarter."

**Numbers:** 50%


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*