--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/crwd last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:39:30.532Z --- # CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-09 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:39:29.240Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $455.64 (▲ 2.22%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $115.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $342.72 – $566.90 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 9 Jun | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.07 (+47% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C- (overall 1/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $525 (+15.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 64/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.07^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 64 = MoonshotScore 64^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Nextgen Siem Growth CrowdStrike's Next-Gen SIEM experienced growth of more than 95% year-over-year, reaching over $430 million in ARR. > "Falcon NextGen SIEM had a stellar Q2 with year-over-year growth of more than 95% and ending ARR of more than $430 million." > — George Kurtz, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Cloud Arr Growth CrowdStrike's cloud business exceeded $700 million in ending ARR, growing more than 35% year over year. > "Total cloud ending ARR exceeded $700 million growing more than 35% year over year." > — George Kurtz, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Customer Care Packages CrowdStrike is confident in the renewal rates and customer success of its Customer Care Packages (CCP). > "So 95 plus percent of the time, a customer will renew a module once they adopt it. So I gotta start with that. Obviously, CCP was a a new element for us. Right? But when you look at the value that we provide in these modules and once customers see it, integrated into the platform and into their workflows, 95% plus, they're gonna renew it." > — George Kurtz, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Falcon Flex Adoption CrowdStrike's Falcon Flex model is helping customers accelerate Falcon platform adoption, surpassing 1,000 customers. > "Contributing to our platform growth is our revolutionary FalconFlex model, helping customers accelerate and maximize Falcon platform adoption. In Q2, we crossed 1,000 Falcon Flex customers, adding more than two twenty new Flex customers." > — George Kurtz, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 9.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+18.3%) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (76.3%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (1.2%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.4B, 3.1× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | very high R&D (28.9%, margin pressure risk) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 60.0 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (75%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +15.2% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 60 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +15.2% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +15.2% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 60.0 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $413 — hisse %10.2 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $458 — hisse %0.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -39% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY26 | $0.73 | $0.66 | BEAT | -5.8% | | Q2 FY26 | $0.93 | $0.83 | BEAT | +4.6% | | Q3 FY26 | $0.96 | $0.94 | BEAT | +1.5% | | Q4 FY26 | $1.12 | $1.10 | +1.8% EPS | +4.2% | Q2 (August 27, 2025): EPS $1.12 vs $1.10 est^[FMP], +1.8% beat. D+1 movement: +4.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.07 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.07^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $525^{[FMP target]}; high target $640^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.07 + CapEx < $121.5M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.07^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $121.5M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $456^[FMP] and median $525^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.04 or CapEx ≥ $121.5M** Threshold: EPS < $1.04^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $456 below SMA200 $458^[FMP], if rejection continues, $389^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $1.12 vs $1.10 beat^[FMP], stock +4.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $121.5M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 1.2%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $525 (+15.2% upside vs current $456) - **High / Low:** $640 / $368 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 42 / 14 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 13 (last quarter), 271 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. net_new_arr_reacceleration **Claim:** CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. reaccelerated net new ARR growth in the back half of the year, driven by AI-necessitated demand and stellar execution. **Evidence (transcript):** "Reflecting on our second quarter, the key theme was reacceleration. We've talked about reacceleration coming in the back half of this fiscal year, and it's here now." **Numbers:** — ### 2. falcon_flex_adoption **Claim:** CrowdStrike's Falcon Flex model is helping customers accelerate Falcon platform adoption, surpassing 1,000 customers. **Evidence (transcript):** "Contributing to our platform growth is our revolutionary FalconFlex model, helping customers accelerate and maximize Falcon platform adoption. In Q2, we crossed 1,000 Falcon Flex customers, adding more than two twenty new Flex customers." **Numbers:** 1,000 ### 3. nextgen_siem_growth **Claim:** CrowdStrike's Next-Gen SIEM experienced growth of more than 95% year-over-year, reaching over $430 million in ARR. **Evidence (transcript):** "Falcon NextGen SIEM had a stellar Q2 with year-over-year growth of more than 95% and ending ARR of more than $430 million." **Numbers:** 95%, $430 million ### 4. onem_acquisition **Claim:** CrowdStrike aims to enhance data ingestion speed and cost efficiency for its next-gen SIEM through the acquisition of Onum. **Evidence (transcript):** "With ONEM, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. will align with each stage of the AI lifecycle. Ingestion and detection of data, filtration and optimization of data, as well as actioning and enforcement to produce high-fidelity autonomous outcomes across security non-security use cases." **Numbers:** — ### 5. cloud_arr_growth **Claim:** CrowdStrike's cloud business exceeded $700 million in ending ARR, growing more than 35% year over year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Total cloud ending ARR exceeded $700 million growing more than 35% year over year." **Numbers:** $700 million, 35% ### 6. customer_care_packages **Claim:** CrowdStrike is confident in the renewal rates and customer success of its Customer Care Packages (CCP). **Evidence (transcript):** "So 95 plus percent of the time, a customer will renew a module once they adopt it. So I gotta start with that. Obviously, CCP was a a new element for us. Right? But when you look at the value that we provide in these modules and once customers see it, integrated into the platform and into their workflows, 95% plus, they're gonna renew it." **Numbers:** 95% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*