--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/csco last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:46:36.413Z --- # Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-13 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:46:35.513Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $91.85 (▲ 0.38%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $362.8B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $58.58 – $92.92 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 13 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.04 (+8% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $15.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $98 (+6.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 54/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Cisco Systems, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $15.5B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.04^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 54 = MoonshotScore 54^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Fy26 Ai Revenue Guidance Cisco now expects to recognize over $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY '26. > "Given the strong demand for our Silicon One systems and optics, we now expect to take AI orders in excess of $5 billion and to recognize over $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY '26." > — Charles Robbins, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Networking Product Orders Growth Growth in networking product orders continued to accelerate, reaching more than 20% in Q2 and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth driven by service provider routing, data center switching, campus switching, wireless, servers and industrial IoT products. > "Growth in networking product orders continued to accelerate, reaching more than 20% in Q2 and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth driven by service provider routing, data center switching, campus switching, wireless, servers and industrial IoT products." > — Charles Robbins, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Q2 Product Orders Growth Overall, total product orders grew 18% year-over-year in Q2. > "Overall, total product orders grew 18% year-over-year, even on top of double-digit growth in Q2 fiscal year '25." > — Charles Robbins, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Hyperscaler Product Orders Growth Product orders from service provider and cloud customers accelerated in Q2, growing 65%, driven by triple-digit order growth across hyperscalers. > "Product orders from service provider and cloud customers accelerated in Q2, growing 65%, driven by triple-digit order growth across hyperscalers." > — Charles Robbins, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Ai Infrastructure Orders AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers totaled $2.1 billion in Q2 compared to $1.3 billion just last quarter and equal to the total orders taken in all of fiscal year '25, marking another significant acceleration in growth across our silicon, systems and optics. > "AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers totaled $2.1 billion in Q2 compared to $1.3 billion just last quarter and equal to the total orders taken in all of fiscal year '25, marking another significant acceleration in growth across our silicon, systems and optics." > — Charles Robbins, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 4.0 | medium | Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+8.5%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q2: high margin (65.0%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (24.6%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.1B, 6.6× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | high R&D intensity (16.0%, aggressive) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 70.7 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (65%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +6.2% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 71 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +6.2% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +6.2% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 70.7 — overbought (RSI 70.7) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $82 — hisse %12.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $75 — hisse %22.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -9% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $0.96 | $0.92 | BEAT | +4.8% | | Q4 FY25 | $0.99 | $0.98 | BEAT | -1.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.00 | $0.98 | BEAT | +4.6% | | Q2 FY26 | $1.04 | $1.02 | +2.0% EPS | -12.3% | Q2 (February 11, 2026): EPS $1.04 vs $1.02 est^[FMP], +2.0% beat. D+1 movement: -12.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.04 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.04^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $98^{[FMP target]}; high target $100^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.04 + CapEx < $323.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.04^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $323.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $92^[FMP] and median $98^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.01 or CapEx ≥ $323.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.01^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $92 below SMA200 $75^[FMP], if rejection continues, $64^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $1.04 vs $1.02 beat^[FMP], stock -12.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $323.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 24.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $98 (+6.2% upside vs current $92) - **High / Low:** $100 / $91 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 17 / 9 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 1 (last quarter), 81 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fy26_ai_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Cisco now expects to recognize over $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY '26. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given the strong demand for our Silicon One systems and optics, we now expect to take AI orders in excess of $5 billion and to recognize over $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY '26." **Numbers:** $5 billion, $3 billion, FY '26 ### 2. q2_product_orders_growth **Claim:** Overall, total product orders grew 18% year-over-year in Q2. **Evidence (transcript):** "Overall, total product orders grew 18% year-over-year, even on top of double-digit growth in Q2 fiscal year '25." **Numbers:** 18%, Q2, '25 ### 3. hyperscaler_product_orders_growth **Claim:** Product orders from service provider and cloud customers accelerated in Q2, growing 65%, driven by triple-digit order growth across hyperscalers. **Evidence (transcript):** "Product orders from service provider and cloud customers accelerated in Q2, growing 65%, driven by triple-digit order growth across hyperscalers." **Numbers:** 65%, Q2 ### 4. networking_product_orders_growth **Claim:** Growth in networking product orders continued to accelerate, reaching more than 20% in Q2 and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth driven by service provider routing, data center switching, campus switching, wireless, servers and industrial IoT products. **Evidence (transcript):** "Growth in networking product orders continued to accelerate, reaching more than 20% in Q2 and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth driven by service provider routing, data center switching, campus switching, wireless, servers and industrial IoT products." **Numbers:** 20%, Q2 ### 5. ai_infrastructure_orders **Claim:** AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers totaled $2.1 billion in Q2 compared to $1.3 billion just last quarter and equal to the total orders taken in all of fiscal year '25, marking another significant acceleration in growth across our silicon, systems and optics. **Evidence (transcript):** "AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers totaled $2.1 billion in Q2 compared to $1.3 billion just last quarter and equal to the total orders taken in all of fiscal year '25, marking another significant acceleration in growth across our silicon, systems and optics." **Numbers:** $2.1 billion, $1.3 billion, '25 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*