--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/cvna last_updated: 2026-05-05T19:48:14.917Z --- # Carvana Co. (CVNA) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T19:48:14.504Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $383.10 (▲ 1.74%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $83.1B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $253.49 – $486.89 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.02 (+58% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $6.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $500 (+30.5% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 53/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Carvana Co. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $6.8B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.02^{[FMP est]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 53 = MoonshotScore 53^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Wholesale Retail Spread Carvana expects approximately $100 to $200 of impact from narrower industry-wide wholesale to retail spreads in Q2 2026 due to wholesale appreciation not being fully passed on into retail prices. > "Looking ahead to Q2, we expect retail GPU to increase sequentially, but to decrease year-over-year due to approximately $100 to $200 of impact from narrower industry-wide wholesale to retail spreads this year." > — Mark Jenkins, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Sga Expense Leverage Carvana achieved a $170 reduction in non-GAAP SG&A expense per retail unit sold, driven by 40% growth in retail units sold. > "Our 40% growth in retail units sold led to a $170 reduction in non-GAAP SG&A expense per retail unit sold, including a $36 reduction in operations expenses and a $226 reduction in overhead expenses." > — Mark Jenkins, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Record Sales And Profitability Carvana achieved record sales of 187,000 cars, GAAP operating income of $581 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $672 million in Q1 2026. > "The first quarter was another outstanding quarter for Carvana. It was another quarter full of records, including a record 187,000 cars sold in a single quarter, a record GAAP operating income of $581 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $672 million" > — Ernest Garcia, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Long Term Growth Drivers Carvana's growth in Q1 2026 was driven by its three long-term drivers of growth: a continuously improving customer offering, increased awareness, understanding and trust, and increasing inventory selection. > "Consistent with past quarters, our growth in the first quarter was driven by our three long-term drivers of growth, a continuously improving customer offering, increase awareness, understanding and trust and increasing inventory selection and other benefits of scale." > — Mark Jenkins, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Q2 Outlook Assuming the environment remains stable, Carvana expects a sequential increase in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, leading to all-time company records on both metrics. > "Looking toward Q2 and assuming the environment remains stable, we expect a sequential increase in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA, leading to all-time company records on both metrics." > — Mark Jenkins, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Reconditioning Team Tools Carvana developed new tools to improve the reconditioning team's performance, and these tools are expected to drive additional fundamental gains over time. > "The new tools that were discussed are net new tools. And those are tools that we hope will drive additional fundamental gains over time." > — Ernest Garcia, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+32.9%) | | Gross Margin | 2.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (19.8%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (9.0%) | | Cash Runway | 8.0 | strong | FCF strong ($0.1B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.3 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (64%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +30.5% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 54 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +30.5% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +30.5% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 54.3 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $340 — hisse %12.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $368 — hisse %4.0 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -38% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.28 | $1.17 | BEAT | +17.0% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.03 | $1.30 | MISS | -13.8% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.22 | $1.14 | BEAT | -7.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.69 | $1.58 | +7.0% EPS | -0.2% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.69 vs $1.58 est^[FMP], +7.0% beat. D+1 movement: -0.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.02 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.02^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $500^{[FMP target]}; high target $600^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.02 + CapEx < $51.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.02^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $51.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $383^[FMP] and median $500^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.96 or CapEx ≥ $51.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.96^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $383 below SMA200 $368^[FMP], if rejection continues, $313^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.69 vs $1.58 beat^[FMP], stock -0.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $51.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 9.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $500 (+30.5% upside vs current $383) - **High / Low:** $600 / $320 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 16 / 8 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 13 (last quarter), 107 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. record_sales_and_profitability **Claim:** Carvana achieved record sales of 187,000 cars, GAAP operating income of $581 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $672 million in Q1 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "The first quarter was another outstanding quarter for Carvana. It was another quarter full of records, including a record 187,000 cars sold in a single quarter, a record GAAP operating income of $581 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $672 million" **Numbers:** 187,000, $581 million, $672 million ### 2. long_term_growth_drivers **Claim:** Carvana's growth in Q1 2026 was driven by its three long-term drivers of growth: a continuously improving customer offering, increased awareness, understanding and trust, and increasing inventory selection. **Evidence (transcript):** "Consistent with past quarters, our growth in the first quarter was driven by our three long-term drivers of growth, a continuously improving customer offering, increase awareness, understanding and trust and increasing inventory selection and other benefits of scale." **Numbers:** — ### 3. sga_expense_leverage **Claim:** Carvana achieved a $170 reduction in non-GAAP SG&A expense per retail unit sold, driven by 40% growth in retail units sold. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our 40% growth in retail units sold led to a $170 reduction in non-GAAP SG&A expense per retail unit sold, including a $36 reduction in operations expenses and a $226 reduction in overhead expenses." **Numbers:** 40%, $170, $36, $226 ### 4. q2_outlook **Claim:** Assuming the environment remains stable, Carvana expects a sequential increase in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, leading to all-time company records on both metrics. **Evidence (transcript):** "Looking toward Q2 and assuming the environment remains stable, we expect a sequential increase in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA, leading to all-time company records on both metrics." **Numbers:** — ### 5. reconditioning_team_tools **Claim:** Carvana developed new tools to improve the reconditioning team's performance, and these tools are expected to drive additional fundamental gains over time. **Evidence (transcript):** "The new tools that were discussed are net new tools. And those are tools that we hope will drive additional fundamental gains over time." **Numbers:** — ### 6. wholesale_retail_spread **Claim:** Carvana expects approximately $100 to $200 of impact from narrower industry-wide wholesale to retail spreads in Q2 2026 due to wholesale appreciation not being fully passed on into retail prices. **Evidence (transcript):** "Looking ahead to Q2, we expect retail GPU to increase sequentially, but to decrease year-over-year due to approximately $100 to $200 of impact from narrower industry-wide wholesale to retail spreads this year." **Numbers:** $100, $200 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*