--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/cvx last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:42:35.443Z --- # Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:42:34.221Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $190.63 (▼ -1.39%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $380.4B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $133.77 – $214.71 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Fri 7 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $4.53 (+156% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $60.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $190 (-0.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 33/100 | derived | | Council | 0/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Chevron Corporation — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $60.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $4.53^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 0/6 · **Moonshot:** 33 = MoonshotScore 33^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 0/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Venezuela Cash Flow Chevron expects Venezuela to continue to represent 1% to 2% of cash flow from operations. > "We are still in debt recovery mode and expect Venezuela to continue to represent 1% to 2% of cash flow from operations." > — Michael K. Wirth, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Production Increase First-quarter 2026 oil-equivalent production increased by approximately 500 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025. > "First-quarter 2026 oil-equivalent production increased by approximately 500 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025." > — Eimear P. Bonner, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Unfavorable Timing Effects Chevron's first-quarter earnings were impacted by approximately $3 billion of unfavorable timing effects, reflecting a steep rise in commodity prices in March. > "Unfavorable timing effects totaled around $3 billion for the quarter, reflecting a steep rise in commodity prices in March." > — Eimear P. Bonner, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Global Equity Crude Throughput Chevron expects global equity crude throughput to more than double year over year to 40% in the second quarter. > "In the second quarter, we expect global equity crude throughput to more than double year over year to 40%." > — Michael K. Wirth, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Asia Refinery Utilization Chevron anticipates over 80% refinery utilization in Asia. > "In Asia, we anticipate over 80% refinery utilization." > — Michael K. Wirth, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 4.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+7.2%) | | Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (9.6%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (6.8%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-1.5B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 49.9 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (72%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -0.6% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 50 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -0.6% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -0.6% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 49.9 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $193 — hisse %1.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $167 — hisse %14.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +8% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.77 | $1.73 | BEAT | -0.2% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.85 | $1.69 | BEAT | -2.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.52 | $1.41 | BEAT | -1.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.41 | $1.00 | +41.0% EPS | no data | Q1 (May 1, 2026): EPS $1.41 vs $1.00 est^[FMP], +41.0% beat. D+1 movement: no data^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $4.53 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $4.53^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $190^{[FMP target]}; high target $222^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $4.53 + CapEx < $4.1B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.53^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $4.1B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $191^[FMP] and median $190^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.39 or CapEx ≥ $4.1B** Threshold: EPS < $4.39^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $191 below SMA200 $167^[FMP], if rejection continues, $142^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.41 vs $1.00 beat^[FMP], stock no data D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $4.1B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 6.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $190 (-0.6% upside vs current $191) - **High / Low:** $222 / $166 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 18 / 6 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 105 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. integration_benefits **Claim:** Chevron Corporation realized significant integration benefits during the quarter due to its high-quality upstream and downstream portfolios. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our high-quality upstream and downstream portfolios delivered significant integration benefits during the quarter." **Numbers:** — ### 2. global_equity_crude_throughput **Claim:** Chevron expects global equity crude throughput to more than double year over year to 40% in the second quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the second quarter, we expect global equity crude throughput to more than double year over year to 40%." **Numbers:** 40% ### 3. asia_refinery_utilization **Claim:** Chevron anticipates over 80% refinery utilization in Asia. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Asia, we anticipate over 80% refinery utilization." **Numbers:** 80% ### 4. venezuela_cash_flow **Claim:** Chevron expects Venezuela to continue to represent 1% to 2% of cash flow from operations. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are still in debt recovery mode and expect Venezuela to continue to represent 1% to 2% of cash flow from operations." **Numbers:** 1%, 2% ### 5. unfavorable_timing_effects **Claim:** Chevron's first-quarter earnings were impacted by approximately $3 billion of unfavorable timing effects, reflecting a steep rise in commodity prices in March. **Evidence (transcript):** "Unfavorable timing effects totaled around $3 billion for the quarter, reflecting a steep rise in commodity prices in March." **Numbers:** $3 billion ### 6. production_increase **Claim:** First-quarter 2026 oil-equivalent production increased by approximately 500 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "First-quarter 2026 oil-equivalent production increased by approximately 500 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025." **Numbers:** 500 thousand --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*