Datadog, Inc.
DDOG - NASDAQ - $145.73 ▼ -%0.65
-
Earnings Thu 7 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Datadog opens the
books on Thursday evening.

12 analysts' median target is $175[FMP target], stock is $146, +20.1% upside potential. After Q4 +6.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.8%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
C+
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 67

C+ = MoonshotScore 67[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $960.1M[FMP est], EPS $0.50[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.50 EPS Estimate Last year $0.59 - +9% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q4 EPS +6.3% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. David Obstler promised $8.9M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[David Obstler capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

4,310 Investor Focus

Customer ARR Growth

customer_ARR_growth

Datadog has about 4,310 customers with an ARR of $100,000 or more, and these customers generate about 90% of its ARR.

"We also ended Q4 with about 4,310 customers with an ARR of $100,000 or more, up from about 3,610 a year ago. These customers generated about 90% of our ARR."

- Olivier Pomel, Datadog's Co-Founder and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
18 Investor Focus

Large Deal Growth

large_deal_growth

Datadog signed some of the largest deals it has ever made, including 18 deals over $10 million in TCV, of which 2 were over $100 million.

"We signed 18 deals over $10 million in TCV this quarter, of which 2 were over $100 million and 1 was an 8-figure land with a leading AI model company."

- Olivier Pomel, Datadog's Co-Founder and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
84% Investor Focus

Product Platform Adoption

product_platform_adoption

Datadog's platform strategy continues to resonate in the market, with 84% of customers using 2 or more products, 55% of customers using 4 or more products, and 33% of customers using 6 or more products.

"At the end of Q4, 84% of customers use 2 or more products, up from 83% a year ago. 55% of customers use 4 or more products, up from 50% a year ago, 33% of our customers use 6 or more products, up from 26% a year ago, 18% of our customers use 8 or more products, up from 12% a year ago, and as a sign of continued penetration of our platform, 9% of our customers use 10 or more products, up from 6% a year ago."

- Olivier Pomel, Datadog's Co-Founder and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
650 Investor Focus

Ai Native Customer Growth

ai_native_customer_growth

Datadog is seeing continued strong adoption amongst AI-native customers with about 650 customers in this group.

"Meanwhile, we are seeing continued strong adoption amongst AI-native customers with about 650 customers in this group."

- David Obstler, Datadog's CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 67 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+25.2%)
Gross Margin8.0Q4: very high margin (80.4%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage0.0op margin weak (1.0%, under pressure)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.3B, 35.8x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0very high R&D (45.2%, margin pressure risk)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 69.6 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (92%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +20.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 70
Klarman value - target upside +20.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 2/5
Munger valuation - target upside +20.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
69.6 RSI 69.6 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+18.30 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$123 stock 18.3% above - short-term support
200d MA
$138 stock 5.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+0% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$175
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$146
Pre-earnings position
Support
$117
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$117-$175 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Datadog, beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$0.46 vs $0.43 est - -0.0%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.46 vs $0.41 est - -4.0%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.55 vs $0.46 est - +0.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.59 vs $0.56 est - -1.8%

Q4 (February 10, 2026): EPS $0.59 vs $0.56 est[FMP], +6.3% beat. D+1 movement: -1.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.48 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $0.59 vs $0.56 beat[FMP], stock -1.8% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $8.9M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 1.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.50 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.50[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $175[FMP target]; high target $215[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.50 + CapEx < $8.9M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.50[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $8.9M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $146[FMP] and median $175[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.48 or CapEx >= $8.9M
Threshold: EPS < $0.48[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $146 below SMA200 $138[FMP], if rejection continues, $117[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 12 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$175
12-month median target price (+20.1% upside potential)
45
BUY
3
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$117
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$123 - 50-day MA (above, +18.3%)
$138 - 200-day MA (above, +5.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - DDOG Q4 FY26
C+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.50[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $8.9M"[David Obstler]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 7, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 8, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 21, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 7, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the DDOG earnings preview cover?

This DDOG (DDOG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in DDOG earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.