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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/de
last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:21:48.614Z
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# Deere & Company (DE) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:21:47.466Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $577.26 (▼ -2.14%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $155.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $433.00 – $674.19 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 21 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $5.71 (-14% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $11.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $730 (+26.5% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 31/100 | derived |
| Council | 4/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## Deere & Company — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$11.6B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$5.71</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 8 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 31

= MoonshotScore <strong>31</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>4/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Construction Order Bank Growth

In Construction & Forestry, the order bank has risen by over 50% in the past quarter, reaching its highest point since May of 2024.

> "What's perhaps most encouraging is that our order bank has risen by over 50% in the past quarter, reaching its highest point since May of 2024."
> — Josh Beal, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Net Income Guidance Increase

The net income outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been increased to between $4.5 billion and $5 billion.

> "For fiscal year '26, our updated outlook for net income is now between $4.5 billion and $5 billion."
> — Christopher Seibert, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Equipment Operations Cash Flow

Projections for cash flow from the equipment operations increased by $500 million at both ends of our range and is now expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion.

> "And lastly, projections for cash flow from the equipment operations increased by $500 million at both ends of our range and is now expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion."
> — Christopher Seibert, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Construction Forestry Growth

The 2026 net sales forecast for the Construction & Forestry segment has been updated to an increase of approximately 15%.

> "2026 net sales are now forecasted to be up around 15%."
> — Christopher Seibert, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Small Ag Turf Growth

The 2026 net sales forecast for the Small Ag & Turf segment has been updated to an increase of approximately 15%.

> "We now expect net sales to be up about 15%."
> — Christopher Seibert, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 6. Used Combine Inventory

Deere notes that used Deere combine inventory levels in North America are about 15% below their peak in March 2024.

> "However, current inventory levels for Deere combines remain about 15% below their peak in March 2024 with model year distribution at a normal mix."
> — Josh Beal, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-23.3%, contraction) |
| Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q1: average margin (34.7%) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (16.2%) |
| Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-1.6B, external financing needed) |
| R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | average R&D (5.1%) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 48.7 balanced, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (50%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +26.5% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 49 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +26.5% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +26.5% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 48.7 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50d MA:** $590 — hisse %2.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $516 — hisse %11.8 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -16%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $6.64 | $5.56 | BEAT | +2.9% |
| Q3 FY25 | $4.75 | $4.57 | BEAT | +2.1% |
| Q4 FY25 | $3.93 | $3.84 | BEAT | -1.1% |
| Q1 FY26 | $2.42 | $2.02 | +19.8% EPS | +0.1% |

Q1 (February 19, 2026): EPS $2.42 vs $2.02 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +19.8% beat. D+1 movement: +0.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $5.71 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $5.71<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $730<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $793<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $5.71 + CapEx < $688.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $5.71<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $688.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $577<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $730<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $5.54 or CapEx ≥ $688.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $5.54<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $577 below SMA200 $516<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $439<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $2.42 vs $2.02 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +0.1% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $688.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 16.2%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $730 (+26.5% upside vs current $577)
- **High / Low:** $793 / $458
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 13 / 12 / 1
- **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 82 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. small_ag_turf_growth

**Claim:** The 2026 net sales forecast for the Small Ag & Turf segment has been updated to an increase of approximately 15%.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We now expect net sales to be up about 15%."

**Numbers:** 15%

### 2. construction_forestry_growth

**Claim:** The 2026 net sales forecast for the Construction & Forestry segment has been updated to an increase of approximately 15%.

**Evidence (transcript):** "2026 net sales are now forecasted to be up around 15%."

**Numbers:** 15%

### 3. net_income_guidance_increase

**Claim:** The net income outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been increased to between $4.5 billion and $5 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For fiscal year '26, our updated outlook for net income is now between $4.5 billion and $5 billion."

**Numbers:** 4.5 billion, 5 billion

### 4. equipment_operations_cash_flow

**Claim:** Projections for cash flow from the equipment operations increased by $500 million at both ends of our range and is now expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "And lastly, projections for cash flow from the equipment operations increased by $500 million at both ends of our range and is now expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion."

**Numbers:** $500 million, $4.5 billion, $5.5 billion

### 5. used_combine_inventory

**Claim:** Deere notes that used Deere combine inventory levels in North America are about 15% below their peak in March 2024.

**Evidence (transcript):** "However, current inventory levels for Deere combines remain about 15% below their peak in March 2024 with model year distribution at a normal mix."

**Numbers:** 15%, 2024

### 6. construction_order_bank_growth

**Claim:** In Construction & Forestry, the order bank has risen by over 50% in the past quarter, reaching its highest point since May of 2024.

**Evidence (transcript):** "What's perhaps most encouraging is that our order bank has risen by over 50% in the past quarter, reaching its highest point since May of 2024."

**Numbers:** 50%, 2024


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*