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# Dollar General Corporation (DG) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-02 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T12:42:12.553Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $113.29 (▼ -2.73%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $24.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $86.25 – $158.23 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Tue 2 Jun | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $1.90 (+7% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $10.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $140 (+23.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 39/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Dollar General Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$10.8B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$1.90</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 5 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 39

= MoonshotScore <strong>39</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. 2026 EPS Guidance

Dollar General expects EPS in the range of $7.10 to $7.35 for 2026.

> "Taking all this into account, for 2026, we expect net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2%. Same-store sales growth in the range of 2.2% to 2.7%, and EPS in the range of $7.10 to $7.35."
> — Donny Lau, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 2. DG Media Network Growth

Dollar General expects approximately 50 basis points of gross margin improvement from its DG Media Network initiatives over the next 3 to 4 years.

> "In total, over the next 3 to 4 years, we expect these combined initiatives will contribute at least 120 basis points of gross margin improvement, including approximately 50 basis points from our DG Media Network."
> — Donny Lau, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 3. 2026 Net Sales Growth

Dollar General expects net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2% for 2026.

> "Taking all this into account, for 2026, we expect net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2%."
> — Donny Lau, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 4. Gross Margin Expansion

Dollar General anticipates approximately 50 basis points of incremental gross margin expansion from efforts to further reduce shrink and damages.

> "More specifically, we now anticipate shrink and damages combined will contribute approximately 50 basis points of incremental gross margin expansion as we continue to optimize our inventory position, improve in-store execution, and reduced store manager turnover."
> — Donny Lau, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025

### 5. 2026 Capital Spending

Dollar General expects capital spending in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for 2026.

> "We expect capital spending in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion, which is in line with our capital allocation priorities and designed to support ongoing growth."
> — Donny Lau, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 6. Nonconsumable Sales Penetration Target

Dollar General aims to increase nonconsumable sales penetration to as high as 20% by 2029.

> "Notably, our goal is to increase nonconsumable sales penetration to as high as 20% by 2029."
> — Todd Vasos, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 2.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: moderate growth (+4.6%) |
| Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q4: average margin (30.4%) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (5.6%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.3B, 2.3× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 36.0 weak momentum, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (43% buy) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +23.6% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 36 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +23.6% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +23.6% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 36.0 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50d MA:** $126 — hisse %10.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $121 — hisse %6.7 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** +16%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $1.78 | $1.48 | BEAT | -0.7% |
| Q2 FY25 | $1.86 | $1.58 | BEAT | -2.6% |
| Q3 FY25 | $1.28 | $0.94 | BEAT | +5.7% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1.93 | $1.66 | +16.3% EPS | -3.0% |

Q4 (March 12, 2026): EPS $1.93 vs $1.66 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +16.3% beat. D+1 movement: -3.0%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $1.90 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $1.90<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $140<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $170<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $1.90 + CapEx < $547.2M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.90<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $547.2M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $113<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $140<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $1.84 or CapEx ≥ $547.2M**

Threshold: EPS < $1.84<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $113 below SMA200 $121<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $103<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q4: EPS $1.93 vs $1.66 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -3.0% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25

### CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $547.2M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q4 op margin 5.6%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $140 (+23.6% upside vs current $113)
- **High / Low:** $170 / $111
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 13 / 16 / 1
- **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 107 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. 2026_net_sales_growth

**Claim:** Dollar General expects net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2% for 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Taking all this into account, for 2026, we expect net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2%."

**Numbers:** 3.7%, 4.2%

### 2. 2026_EPS_guidance

**Claim:** Dollar General expects EPS in the range of $7.10 to $7.35 for 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Taking all this into account, for 2026, we expect net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2%. Same-store sales growth in the range of 2.2% to 2.7%, and EPS in the range of $7.10 to $7.35."

**Numbers:** 3.7%, 4.2%, 2.2%, 2.7%, $7.10, $7.35

### 3. 2026_capital_spending

**Claim:** Dollar General expects capital spending in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect capital spending in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion, which is in line with our capital allocation priorities and designed to support ongoing growth."

**Numbers:** $1.4 billion, $1.5 billion

### 4. gross_margin_expansion

**Claim:** Dollar General anticipates approximately 50 basis points of incremental gross margin expansion from efforts to further reduce shrink and damages.

**Evidence (transcript):** "More specifically, we now anticipate shrink and damages combined will contribute approximately 50 basis points of incremental gross margin expansion as we continue to optimize our inventory position, improve in-store execution, and reduced store manager turnover."

**Numbers:** 50

### 5. DG_Media_Network_growth

**Claim:** Dollar General expects approximately 50 basis points of gross margin improvement from its DG Media Network initiatives over the next 3 to 4 years.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In total, over the next 3 to 4 years, we expect these combined initiatives will contribute at least 120 basis points of gross margin improvement, including approximately 50 basis points from our DG Media Network."

**Numbers:** 120, 50

### 6. nonconsumable_sales_penetration_target

**Claim:** Dollar General aims to increase nonconsumable sales penetration to as high as 20% by 2029.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Notably, our goal is to increase nonconsumable sales penetration to as high as 20% by 2029."

**Numbers:** 20%, 2029


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*