The Walt Disney Company
DIS - NYSE - $103.08 ▼ -%0.65
-
Earnings Wed 6 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Walt opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

2 analysts' median target is $137[FMP target], stock is $103, +32.9% upside potential. After Q1 +3.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 44

B+ = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $24.8B[FMP est], EPS $1.49[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.49 EPS Estimate Last year $1.11 - +3% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +3.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Hugh F. Johnston promised $3.0B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Hugh F. Johnston capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

13% Investor Focus

Svod Growth Drivers

svod_growth_drivers

Subscription revenue growth was driven by pricing, North America and international growth, and bundling, the duo, the trio, and the max bundles all doing well.

"And then, Robert, on the subscription side, revenue growth was driven by a couple of factors. First, of course, was pricing, second, both North America and international growth, and third was bundling, the duo, the trio, and the max bundles all doing well and driving both engagement and revenue realization."

- Hugh F. Johnston, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 2, 2026
$10 billion Investor Focus

Experiences Revenue

experiences_revenue

The experiences segment had a solid start to the fiscal year with quarterly revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time.

"Turning to our experiences segment, we had a solid start to the fiscal year with quarterly revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time."

- Robert A. Iger, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 2, 2026
$1 billion Investor Focus

Avatar Zootopia Success

avatar_zootopia_success

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Zootopia 2 and Lilo and Stitch became our latest release to cross the $1 billion threshold, joining Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever, earning more than $1.7 billion.

"Avatar: Fire and Ash became our latest release to cross the $1 billion threshold, joining Zootopia 2 and Lilo and Stitch to mark $3 billion titles in 2025. Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever, and one of the top 10 highest-grossing films of all time, earning more than $1.7 billion and firmly establishing itself as a popular new franchise."

- Robert A. Iger, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 2, 2026
$6.5 billion Investor Focus

Film Studio Success

film_studio_success

Disney's film studios generated more than $6.5 billion in global box office in calendar year 2025, marking their ninth year as number one at the global box office over the past decade.

"Beginning with our entertainment segment, our film studios generated more than $6.5 billion in global box office in calendar year 2025, making this our third biggest year ever and our ninth year as number one at the global box office over the past decade."

- Robert A. Iger, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 2, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 44 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Price Momentum and News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth5.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+10.0%)
Gross Margin4.0Q1: average margin (35.8%)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (14.9%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-2.3B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 54.5 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (84%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +32.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 54
Klarman value - target upside +32.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +32.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
54.5 RSI 54.5 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+2.10 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$101 stock 2.1% above - short-term support
200d MA
$110 stock 6.0% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-11% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$137
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$103
Pre-earnings position
Support
$93
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$93-$137 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

The beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.45 vs $1.19 est - +3.0%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.61 vs $1.45 est - -2.0%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.11 vs $1.05 est - -1.7%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.63 vs $1.57 est - -0.2%

Q1 (February 2, 2026): EPS $1.63 vs $1.57 est[FMP], +3.8% beat. D+1 movement: -0.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.45 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.63 vs $1.57 beat[FMP], stock -0.2% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $3.0B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 14.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.49 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.49[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $137[FMP target]; high target $151[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.49 + CapEx < $3.0B
Threshold: EPS approx $1.49[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $3.0B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $103[FMP] and median $137[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.45 or CapEx >= $3.0B
Threshold: EPS < $1.45[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $103 below SMA200 $110[FMP], if rejection continues, $93[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 2 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$137
12-month median target price (+32.9% upside potential)
27
BUY
4
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$93
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$101 - 50-day MA (above, +2.1%)
$110 - 200-day MA (below, -6.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - DIS Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.49[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $3.0B"[Hugh F. Johnston]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days DIS dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 6, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 7, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 20, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 6, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the DIS earnings preview cover?

This DIS (DIS) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in DIS earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.