--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/dis last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:07:33.201Z --- # The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:07:32.055Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $103.08 (▼ -0.65%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $182.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $89.61 – $124.69 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 6 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.49 (+3% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $24.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $137 (+32.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## The Walt Disney Company — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $24.8B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.49^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Svod Growth Drivers Subscription revenue growth was driven by pricing, North America and international growth, and bundling, the duo, the trio, and the max bundles all doing well. > "And then, Robert, on the subscription side, revenue growth was driven by a couple of factors. First, of course, was pricing, second, both North America and international growth, and third was bundling, the duo, the trio, and the max bundles all doing well and driving both engagement and revenue realization." > — Hugh F. Johnston, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Experiences Revenue The experiences segment had a solid start to the fiscal year with quarterly revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time. > "Turning to our experiences segment, we had a solid start to the fiscal year with quarterly revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time." > — Robert A. Iger, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Avatar Zootopia Success Avatar: Fire and Ash, Zootopia 2 and Lilo and Stitch became our latest release to cross the $1 billion threshold, joining Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever, earning more than $1.7 billion. > "Avatar: Fire and Ash became our latest release to cross the $1 billion threshold, joining Zootopia 2 and Lilo and Stitch to mark $3 billion titles in 2025. Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever, and one of the top 10 highest-grossing films of all time, earning more than $1.7 billion and firmly establishing itself as a popular new franchise." > — Robert A. Iger, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Film Studio Success Disney's film studios generated more than $6.5 billion in global box office in calendar year 2025, marking their ninth year as number one at the global box office over the past decade. > "Beginning with our entertainment segment, our film studios generated more than $6.5 billion in global box office in calendar year 2025, making this our third biggest year ever and our ninth year as number one at the global box office over the past decade." > — Robert A. Iger, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 5.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+10.0%) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (35.8%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (14.9%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-2.3B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.5 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (84%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +32.9% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 54 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +32.9% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +32.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 54.5 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $101 — hisse %2.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $110 — hisse %6.0 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -11% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.45 | $1.19 | BEAT | +3.0% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.61 | $1.45 | BEAT | -2.0% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.11 | $1.05 | BEAT | -1.7% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.63 | $1.57 | +3.8% EPS | -0.2% | Q1 (February 2, 2026): EPS $1.63 vs $1.57 est^[FMP], +3.8% beat. D+1 movement: -0.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.49 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.49^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $137^{[FMP target]}; high target $151^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.49 + CapEx < $3.0B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.49^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $3.0B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $103^[FMP] and median $137^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.45 or CapEx ≥ $3.0B** Threshold: EPS < $1.45^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $103 below SMA200 $110^[FMP], if rejection continues, $93^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.63 vs $1.57 beat^[FMP], stock -0.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $3.0B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 14.9%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $137 (+32.9% upside vs current $103) - **High / Low:** $151 / $132 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 27 / 4 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 2 (last quarter), 112 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. film_studio_success **Claim:** Disney's film studios generated more than $6.5 billion in global box office in calendar year 2025, marking their ninth year as number one at the global box office over the past decade. **Evidence (transcript):** "Beginning with our entertainment segment, our film studios generated more than $6.5 billion in global box office in calendar year 2025, making this our third biggest year ever and our ninth year as number one at the global box office over the past decade." **Numbers:** $6.5 billion, 2025, ninth ### 2. avatar_zootopia_success **Claim:** Avatar: Fire and Ash, Zootopia 2 and Lilo and Stitch became our latest release to cross the $1 billion threshold, joining Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever, earning more than $1.7 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "Avatar: Fire and Ash became our latest release to cross the $1 billion threshold, joining Zootopia 2 and Lilo and Stitch to mark $3 billion titles in 2025. Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever, and one of the top 10 highest-grossing films of all time, earning more than $1.7 billion and firmly establishing itself as a popular new franchise." **Numbers:** $1 billion, 3, 2025, $1.7 billion, 10 ### 3. experiences_revenue **Claim:** The experiences segment had a solid start to the fiscal year with quarterly revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time. **Evidence (transcript):** "Turning to our experiences segment, we had a solid start to the fiscal year with quarterly revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time." **Numbers:** $10 billion ### 4. park_expansion **Claim:** Disney has expansion projects underway at every one of our theme parks, and is preparing to welcome guests to the new world of Frozen at the completely reimagined Disney Adventure World at Disneyland Paris. **Evidence (transcript):** "We have expansion projects underway at every one of our theme parks, and next month, we're excited to welcome guests to the new world of Frozen at the completely reimagined Disney Adventure World at Disneyland Paris." **Numbers:** — ### 5. disney_cruise_line_expansion **Claim:** Disney Cruise Line recently launched the Disney Destiny, and is preparing for the launch of the Disney Adventure next month, which will be our first ship home-ported in Asia. **Evidence (transcript):** "At Disney Cruise Line, we recently launched the Disney Destiny, which has received outstanding reviews from guests. We're also preparing for the launch of the Disney Adventure next month, which will be our first ship home-ported in Asia, bringing immersive Disney storytelling to more people globally than ever before." **Numbers:** — ### 6. svod_growth_drivers **Claim:** Subscription revenue growth was driven by pricing, North America and international growth, and bundling, the duo, the trio, and the max bundles all doing well. **Evidence (transcript):** "And then, Robert, on the subscription side, revenue growth was driven by a couple of factors. First, of course, was pricing, second, both North America and international growth, and third was bundling, the duo, the trio, and the max bundles all doing well and driving both engagement and revenue realization." **Numbers:** 13% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*