--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/duk last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:01:19.837Z --- # Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-05 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T10:01:18.748Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $128.60 (▼ -0.73%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $100.1B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $111.22 – $134.49 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 5 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.79 (+2% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $8.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $136 (+5.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 29/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Duke Energy Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $8.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.79^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 29 = MoonshotScore 29^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Long Term EPS Growth Duke Energy is extending its 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 and is confident in its ability to deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028. > "We're also extending our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 off the original 2025 guidance midpoint of $6.30. And I am more confident than ever in our ability to deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 as load growth accelerates." > — Harry Sideris, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. 2026 EPS Guidance Duke Energy set its 2026 earnings per share guidance at $6.55 to $6.80. > "Today, we announced 2025 earnings per share of $6.31, representing 7% growth over 2024 and above the midpoint of our guidance range for the year. Looking ahead, we're introducing 2026 earnings guidance of $6.55 to $6.80." > — Harry Sideris, President and CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Earnings Base Growth Duke Energy's capital plan drives 9.6% earnings base growth. > "Our capital plan will drive 9.6% earnings base growth and is the largest fully regulated capital plan in the industry, focused on critical energy infrastructure investments that strengthen the system and serve increasing load." > — Harry Sideris, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Data Center Agreements Duke Energy signed an additional 1.5 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, including Microsoft and Compass, and now has approximately 4.5 gigawatts of data center load secured under ESAs. > "Since the third quarter earnings call, we signed an additional 1.5 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, including Microsoft and Compass, and now have approximately 4.5 gigawatts of data center load secured under ESAs." > — Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. Capital Plan Increase Duke Energy increased its 5-year capital plan by $16 billion to $103 billion. > "Our earnings profile is underpinned by a $16 billion increase in our 5-year capital plan to $103 billion." > — Harry Sideris, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-3.8%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q4: average margin (30.5%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (26.5%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.5B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 49.9 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (43% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +5.8% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 50 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +5.8% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +5.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 49.9 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $130 — hisse %0.9 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $124 — hisse %3.9 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -4% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $1.76 | $1.60 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q2 FY25 | $1.25 | $1.18 | BEAT | +1.0% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.81 | $1.76 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.50 | $1.49 | +0.7% EPS | +1.3% | Q4 (February 10, 2026): EPS $1.50 vs $1.49 est^[FMP], +0.7% beat. D+1 movement: +1.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.79 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.79^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $136^{[FMP target]}; high target $142^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.79 + CapEx < $4.1B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.79^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $4.1B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $129^[FMP] and median $136^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.74 or CapEx ≥ $4.1B** Threshold: EPS < $1.74^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $129 below SMA200 $124^[FMP], if rejection continues, $105^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $1.50 vs $1.49 beat^[FMP], stock +1.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $4.1B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 26.5%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $136 (+5.8% upside vs current $129) - **High / Low:** $142 / $126 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 10 / 13 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 51 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. 2026_EPS_guidance **Claim:** Duke Energy set its 2026 earnings per share guidance at $6.55 to $6.80. **Evidence (transcript):** "Today, we announced 2025 earnings per share of $6.31, representing 7% growth over 2024 and above the midpoint of our guidance range for the year. Looking ahead, we're introducing 2026 earnings guidance of $6.55 to $6.80." **Numbers:** $6.31, 7%, 2024, $6.55, $6.80 ### 2. long_term_EPS_growth **Claim:** Duke Energy is extending its 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 and is confident in its ability to deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028. **Evidence (transcript):** "We're also extending our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 off the original 2025 guidance midpoint of $6.30. And I am more confident than ever in our ability to deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 as load growth accelerates." **Numbers:** 5%, 7%, 2030, $6.30, 2028 ### 3. capital_plan_increase **Claim:** Duke Energy increased its 5-year capital plan by $16 billion to $103 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our earnings profile is underpinned by a $16 billion increase in our 5-year capital plan to $103 billion." **Numbers:** $16, $103 ### 4. earnings_base_growth **Claim:** Duke Energy's capital plan drives 9.6% earnings base growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our capital plan will drive 9.6% earnings base growth and is the largest fully regulated capital plan in the industry, focused on critical energy infrastructure investments that strengthen the system and serve increasing load." **Numbers:** 9.6% ### 5. data_center_agreements **Claim:** Duke Energy signed an additional 1.5 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, including Microsoft and Compass, and now has approximately 4.5 gigawatts of data center load secured under ESAs. **Evidence (transcript):** "Since the third quarter earnings call, we signed an additional 1.5 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, including Microsoft and Compass, and now have approximately 4.5 gigawatts of data center load secured under ESAs." **Numbers:** 1.5, 4.5 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*