--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ea last_updated: 2026-05-05T21:34:29.204Z --- # Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-05 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T21:34:28.851Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $201.57 (▼ -0.12%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $50.4B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $141.19 – $204.89 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 5 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.39 (+55% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $168 (-16.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 56/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Electronic Arts Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $2.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.39^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 56 = MoonshotScore 56^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Q2 Net Bookings Guidance EA expects net bookings for Q2 to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, down 13% to down 9%. > "For Q2, we expect net bookings to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, down 13% to down 9%." > — Stuart Canfield, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Fc Mobile Growth FC Mobile outperformed expectations with localized campaigns and growing web store adoption, fueling strong growth. > "FC Mobile outperformed expectations again this quarter with localized campaigns and growing web store adoption, fueling momentum through our team of the season event." > — Stuart Canfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Ea Sports Growth EA SPORTS growth doesn't just reflect the world of sports, it's helping to shape it through mobile expansion, creative tools and deepening fandom. > "EA SPORTS growth doesn't just reflect the world of sports, it's helping to shape it." > — Andrew Wilson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. American Football Ecosystem Headwind The American Football ecosystem is expected to be an 8-point headwind in Q2 following the exceptionally strong launch of College Football 25, with growth expected in the second half of the year. > "Putting it all together, we expect the American Football ecosystem to be an 8-point headwind year-over-year for the quarter, with the ecosystem returning to growth in the second half of the fiscal year." > — Stuart Canfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Apex Legends Performance Apex Legends delivered encouraging momentum in Q1, with net bookings flat sequentially, driven by strong operational execution, content innovation and the successful introduction of Legend Locker. > "Apex Legends delivered encouraging momentum in Q1. Net bookings were flat sequentially, driven by strong operational execution, content innovation and the successful introduction of Legend Locker." > — Stuart Canfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. College Football Retention College Football 26 is delivering strong competitive cohort retention early on, resulting in deeper engagement in Ultimate Team. > "While it's early, College Football 26 is delivering strong competitive cohort retention. As a result, we are seeing deeper engagement in Ultimate Team versus prior year life to date." > — Andrew Wilson, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+26.9%) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (82.8%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (26.6%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.5B, 8.5× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | very high R&D (37.5%, margin pressure risk) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 40.9 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 1.0 | weak | majority sell/hold (11% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -16.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 41 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -16.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -16.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 40.9 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $202 — hisse %0.1 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $194 — hisse %4.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -4% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $1.54 | $1.05 | BEAT | +0.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $0.25 | $0.11 | BEAT | +5.7% | | Q2 FY26 | $1.21 | $1.30 | MISS | -0.0% | | Q3 FY26 | $4.82 | $4.72 | +2.1% EPS | -2.3% | Q1 (July 29, 2025): EPS $4.82 vs $4.72 est^[FMP], +2.1% beat. D+1 movement: -2.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.39 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.39^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $168^{[FMP target]}; high target $210^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.39 + CapEx < $61.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.39^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $61.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $202^[FMP] and median $168^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.32 or CapEx ≥ $61.0M** Threshold: EPS < $2.32^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $202 below SMA200 $194^[FMP], if rejection continues, $165^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $4.82 vs $4.72 beat^[FMP], stock -2.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $61.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 26.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $168 (-16.9% upside vs current $202) - **High / Low:** $210 / $118 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 2 / 17 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 0 (last quarter), 64 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fc_mobile_growth **Claim:** FC Mobile outperformed expectations with localized campaigns and growing web store adoption, fueling strong growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "FC Mobile outperformed expectations again this quarter with localized campaigns and growing web store adoption, fueling momentum through our team of the season event." **Numbers:** — ### 2. college_football_retention **Claim:** College Football 26 is delivering strong competitive cohort retention early on, resulting in deeper engagement in Ultimate Team. **Evidence (transcript):** "While it's early, College Football 26 is delivering strong competitive cohort retention. As a result, we are seeing deeper engagement in Ultimate Team versus prior year life to date." **Numbers:** — ### 3. q2_net_bookings_guidance **Claim:** EA expects net bookings for Q2 to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, down 13% to down 9%. **Evidence (transcript):** "For Q2, we expect net bookings to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, down 13% to down 9%." **Numbers:** $1.8 billion, $1.9 billion, 13%, 9% ### 4. american_football_ecosystem_headwind **Claim:** The American Football ecosystem is expected to be an 8-point headwind in Q2 following the exceptionally strong launch of College Football 25, with growth expected in the second half of the year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Putting it all together, we expect the American Football ecosystem to be an 8-point headwind year-over-year for the quarter, with the ecosystem returning to growth in the second half of the fiscal year." **Numbers:** 8-point ### 5. ea_sports_growth **Claim:** EA SPORTS growth doesn't just reflect the world of sports, it's helping to shape it through mobile expansion, creative tools and deepening fandom. **Evidence (transcript):** "EA SPORTS growth doesn't just reflect the world of sports, it's helping to shape it." **Numbers:** — ### 6. apex_legends_performance **Claim:** Apex Legends delivered encouraging momentum in Q1, with net bookings flat sequentially, driven by strong operational execution, content innovation and the successful introduction of Legend Locker. **Evidence (transcript):** "Apex Legends delivered encouraging momentum in Q1. Net bookings were flat sequentially, driven by strong operational execution, content innovation and the successful introduction of Legend Locker." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*