--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/efx last_updated: 2026-05-09T14:00:38.991Z --- # Equifax Inc. (EFX) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T14:00:38.559Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $175.83 (▲ 0.12%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $21.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $166.02 – $281.03 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 21 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.25 (+13% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $222 (+26.3% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 47/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Equifax Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.25^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 47 = MoonshotScore 47^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Mortgage Revenue Growth Despite a strong Q1, Equifax is maintaining its 2026 mortgage revenue growth guidance of over 20% due to uncertainty related to the Iran conflict. > "We are maintaining our 2026 guidance for mortgage revenue growth of over 20%, consistent with the framework we provided in February, as a stronger-than-expected first quarter mortgage revenue growth is offset by our expectation of current trends of slightly slower growth over the remainder of the year versus our February guide." > — Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Margin Expansion Equifax expects to deliver strong full-year margin expansion, excluding FICO, of 75 basis points from operating leverage of strong top-line growth, higher margin new products, and AI-driven productivity. > "We also expect to deliver strong full year margin expansion, excluding FICO of 75 basis points from operating leverage of strong top line growth, higher margin new products and AI-driven productivity." > — Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Government Revenue Growth Equifax remains energized about the mid- and long-term growth opportunities for EWS government at both the federal and the state level in meeting new federal requirements regarding accuracy of income validation in Medicaid and SNAP. > "We remain energized about the mid- and long-term growth opportunities for EWS government at both the federal and the state level in meeting new federal requirements regarding accuracy of income validation in Medicaid and SNAP as well as work, education and community engagement requirements and Medicaid benefits." > — Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. TWN Indicator Growth Equifax is delivering TWN income and employment attributes at no cost to its customers to drive credit file share gains and future TWN VOI and VOE growth. > "And as a reminder, Equifax is delivering TWN income and employment attributes at no cost to our customers to drive credit file share gains in TWN VOI and VOE growth in the future." > — Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Capital Allocation Equifax has $1.5 billion of capital available in 2026 to invest in both bolt-on M&A and return of cash to shareholders, and returned $327 million to shareholders in Q1. > "In the first quarter, we returned $327 million to shareholders." > — Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 4.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+7.3%) | | Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (53.5%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (17.4%) | | Cash Runway | 8.0 | strong | FCF strong ($0.1B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 45.8 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (71%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +26.3% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 46 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +26.3% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +26.3% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 45.8 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $184 — hisse %4.5 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $215 — hisse %18.1 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -18% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.00 | $1.93 | BEAT | +3.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.04 | $1.94 | BEAT | +0.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.09 | $2.06 | BEAT | +5.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.86 | $1.69 | +10.1% EPS | -7.2% | Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $1.86 vs $1.69 est^[FMP], +10.1% beat. D+1 movement: -7.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.25 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.25^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $222^{[FMP target]}; high target $265^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.25 + CapEx < $120.4M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.25^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $120.4M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $176^[FMP] and median $222^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.18 or CapEx ≥ $120.4M** Threshold: EPS < $2.18^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $176 below SMA200 $215^[FMP], if rejection continues, $182^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.86 vs $1.69 beat^[FMP], stock -7.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $120.4M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 17.4%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $222 (+26.3% upside vs current $176) - **High / Low:** $265 / $195 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 17 / 7 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 2 (last quarter), 74 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. mortgage_revenue_growth **Claim:** Despite a strong Q1, Equifax is maintaining its 2026 mortgage revenue growth guidance of over 20% due to uncertainty related to the Iran conflict. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are maintaining our 2026 guidance for mortgage revenue growth of over 20%, consistent with the framework we provided in February, as a stronger-than-expected first quarter mortgage revenue growth is offset by our expectation of current trends of slightly slower growth over the remainder of the year versus our February guide." **Numbers:** 20% ### 2. margin_expansion **Claim:** Equifax expects to deliver strong full-year margin expansion, excluding FICO, of 75 basis points from operating leverage of strong top-line growth, higher margin new products, and AI-driven productivity. **Evidence (transcript):** "We also expect to deliver strong full year margin expansion, excluding FICO of 75 basis points from operating leverage of strong top line growth, higher margin new products and AI-driven productivity." **Numbers:** 75 ### 3. capital_allocation **Claim:** Equifax has $1.5 billion of capital available in 2026 to invest in both bolt-on M&A and return of cash to shareholders, and returned $327 million to shareholders in Q1. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the first quarter, we returned $327 million to shareholders." **Numbers:** $327 ### 4. TWN_indicator_growth **Claim:** Equifax is delivering TWN income and employment attributes at no cost to its customers to drive credit file share gains and future TWN VOI and VOE growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "And as a reminder, Equifax is delivering TWN income and employment attributes at no cost to our customers to drive credit file share gains in TWN VOI and VOE growth in the future." **Numbers:** — ### 5. government_revenue_growth **Claim:** Equifax remains energized about the mid- and long-term growth opportunities for EWS government at both the federal and the state level in meeting new federal requirements regarding accuracy of income validation in Medicaid and SNAP. **Evidence (transcript):** "We remain energized about the mid- and long-term growth opportunities for EWS government at both the federal and the state level in meeting new federal requirements regarding accuracy of income validation in Medicaid and SNAP as well as work, education and community engagement requirements and Medicaid benefits." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*