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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/elv
last_updated: 2026-05-05T19:32:49.559Z
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# Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T19:32:48.998Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $368.53 (▼ -0.91%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $80.0B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $273.71 – $424.24 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 16 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $6.20 (-30% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $48.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $391 (+6.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 37/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Elevance Health Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$48.8B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$6.20</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 3 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** A- · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 37

= MoonshotScore <strong>37</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (4 metrics)

### 1. Medicare Advantage Margin

Elevance Health is driving improved performance in Medicare Advantage through repositioning efforts and remains on track to achieve an operating margin of at least 2% in 2026.

> "In Medicare Advantage, the steps we have taken to reposition the business are driving improved performance, and we remain on track to achieve an operating margin of at least 2% in 2026."
> — Gail Boudreaux, President and CEO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Eps Growth Outlook

Elevance Health remains confident in its ability to deliver at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.

> "As we look ahead, we remain confident in our ability to deliver at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027."
> — Gail Boudreaux, President and CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Fy26 Eps Guidance

Elevance Health is raising its full year 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance to at least $26.75 based on strong Q1 performance and positive trends.

> "That is why we are raising our full year adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance to at least $26.75."
> — Gail Boudreaux, President and CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Aca Membership

Elevance Health is seeing growth in Individual ACA membership and expects to end the second quarter with approximately 1.2 million members.

> "Our current view of membership effectuation indicates that we are on track to end the second quarter with approximately 1.2 million members ahead of our initial outlook."
> — Mark Kaye, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+0.8%, below threshold) |
| Gross Margin | 2.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (18.1%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (5.3%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($4.1B, 17.4× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 72.6 overbought, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (64%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +6.1% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 73 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +6.1% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +6.1% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Strong
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 72.6 — overbought (RSI 72.6) — geri çekilme baskısı
- **50d MA:** $313 — hisse %17.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $326 — hisse %13.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -93%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $8.84 | $8.91 | MISS | -8.4% |
| Q3 FY25 | $6.03 | $4.93 | BEAT | -1.3% |
| Q4 FY25 | $3.33 | $3.10 | BEAT | +1.5% |
| Q1 FY26 | $12.58 | $11.03 | +14.1% EPS | +5.5% |

Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $12.58 vs $11.03 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +14.1% beat. D+1 movement: +5.5%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $6.20 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $6.20<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $391<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $425<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $6.20 + CapEx < $235.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $6.20<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $235.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $369<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $391<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $6.01 or CapEx ≥ $235.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $6.01<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $369 below SMA200 $326<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $277<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $12.58 vs $11.03 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +5.5% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $235.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 5.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $391 (+6.1% upside vs current $369)
- **High / Low:** $425 / $331
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 8 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 79 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. fy26_eps_guidance

**Claim:** Elevance Health is raising its full year 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance to at least $26.75 based on strong Q1 performance and positive trends.

**Evidence (transcript):** "That is why we are raising our full year adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance to at least $26.75."

**Numbers:** $26.75

### 2. carelon_demand

**Claim:** We continue to see strong demand for Carelon's capabilities, reinforcing its role as a driver of current performance and long-term growth.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We continue to see strong demand for Carelon's capabilities, reinforcing its role as a driver of current performance and long-term growth."

**Numbers:** —

### 3. medicare_advantage_margin

**Claim:** Elevance Health is driving improved performance in Medicare Advantage through repositioning efforts and remains on track to achieve an operating margin of at least 2% in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In Medicare Advantage, the steps we have taken to reposition the business are driving improved performance, and we remain on track to achieve an operating margin of at least 2% in 2026."

**Numbers:** 2%, 2026

### 4. eps_growth_outlook

**Claim:** Elevance Health remains confident in its ability to deliver at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As we look ahead, we remain confident in our ability to deliver at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027."

**Numbers:** 12%, 2027

### 5. aca_membership

**Claim:** Elevance Health is seeing growth in Individual ACA membership and expects to end the second quarter with approximately 1.2 million members.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Our current view of membership effectuation indicates that we are on track to end the second quarter with approximately 1.2 million members ahead of our initial outlook."

**Numbers:** 1.2, million


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*