--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/eme last_updated: 2026-05-05T22:20:45.047Z --- # EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T22:20:44.562Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $933.27 (▲ 2.53%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $41.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $427.90 – $944.85 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $7.26 (+8% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $932 (-0.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 34/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## EMCOR Group, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $4.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $7.26^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 34 = MoonshotScore 34^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Full Year 2026 Guidance EMCOR is raising its full year 2026 revenue guidance to between $18.5 billion and $19.25 billion and diluted earnings per share guidance to between $28.25 and $29.75. > "We are increasing our revenue and diluted earnings per share guidance to a range that reflects our confidence in the sustained operational excellence that we have exhibited and strong market momentum. We now expect to earn revenues between $18.5 billion and $19.25 billion and diluted earnings per share of between $28.25 and $29.75." > — Anthony Guzzi, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Electrical Construction Growth The Electrical Construction segment experienced revenue growth of just over 33%, with revenues increasing by nearly 50% driven by strong demand for data centers. > "Revenues of Electrical Construction were $1.45 billion, increasing just over 33%. This segment generated increased revenues from the majority of the market sectors we serve, with the most significant growth coming from Network & Communications, where revenues increased by nearly 50%, driven by strong demand for data centers." > — Jason Nalbandian, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Mechanical Construction Growth Mechanical Construction revenues are up nearly 29%. Increased cooling requirements and advancements in liquid cooling, particularly for AI data centers continue to drive opportunities for this segment, with revenues increasing by 86% from the network and communications market sector. > "Mechanical Construction revenues of $2.03 billion are up nearly 29%. Similar to Electrical, this segment once again experienced the greatest growth from the network and communications market sector where revenues increased by 86%. Increased cooling requirements and advancements in liquid cooling, particularly for AI data centers continue to drive opportunities for this segment." > — Jason Nalbandian, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Revenue Growth EMCOR reported a record quarterly revenue of $4.63 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 19.7%. > "In the first quarter, we generated revenues of $4.63 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 19.7% and organic growth of 16.8% when adjusting for incremental acquisition contribution and the sale of EMCOR U.K." > — Anthony Guzzi, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Remaining Performance Obligations EMCOR's remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaled $15.62 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 32.9%, providing excellent visibility for sustained growth. > "Our RPOs totaled $15.62 billion at the end of the quarter versus $11.75 billion in the year ago period and $13.25 billion as of December 31, 2025. This represents year-over-year growth of 32.9% and sequential growth of 17.9%." > — Anthony Guzzi, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 4.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+7.5%) | | Gross Margin | 2.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (18.7%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (8.7%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.0B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 71.7 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (67%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -0.2% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 72 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -0.2% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -0.2% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 71.7 — overbought (RSI 71.7) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $782 — hisse %19.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $687 — hisse %35.8 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -2% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $6.72 | $5.74 | BEAT | -0.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $6.57 | $6.54 | BEAT | +4.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $7.19 | $6.68 | BEAT | -2.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $6.84 | $5.90 | +15.9% EPS | +7.0% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $6.84 vs $5.90 est^[FMP], +15.9% beat. D+1 movement: +7.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $7.26 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $7.26^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $932^{[FMP target]}; high target $945^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $7.26 + CapEx < $28.7M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $7.26^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $28.7M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $933^[FMP] and median $932^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $7.04 or CapEx ≥ $28.7M** Threshold: EPS < $7.04^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $933 below SMA200 $687^[FMP], if rejection continues, $584^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $6.84 vs $5.90 beat^[FMP], stock +7.0% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $28.7M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 8.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $932 (-0.2% upside vs current $933) - **High / Low:** $945 / $918 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 6 / 3 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 8 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. revenue_growth **Claim:** EMCOR reported a record quarterly revenue of $4.63 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 19.7%. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the first quarter, we generated revenues of $4.63 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 19.7% and organic growth of 16.8% when adjusting for incremental acquisition contribution and the sale of EMCOR U.K." **Numbers:** 4.63, 19.7%, 16.8% ### 2. electrical_construction_growth **Claim:** The Electrical Construction segment experienced revenue growth of just over 33%, with revenues increasing by nearly 50% driven by strong demand for data centers. **Evidence (transcript):** "Revenues of Electrical Construction were $1.45 billion, increasing just over 33%. This segment generated increased revenues from the majority of the market sectors we serve, with the most significant growth coming from Network & Communications, where revenues increased by nearly 50%, driven by strong demand for data centers." **Numbers:** 1.45, 33%, 50% ### 3. mechanical_construction_growth **Claim:** Mechanical Construction revenues are up nearly 29%. Increased cooling requirements and advancements in liquid cooling, particularly for AI data centers continue to drive opportunities for this segment, with revenues increasing by 86% from the network and communications market sector. **Evidence (transcript):** "Mechanical Construction revenues of $2.03 billion are up nearly 29%. Similar to Electrical, this segment once again experienced the greatest growth from the network and communications market sector where revenues increased by 86%. Increased cooling requirements and advancements in liquid cooling, particularly for AI data centers continue to drive opportunities for this segment." **Numbers:** 2.03, 29%, 86% ### 4. remaining_performance_obligations **Claim:** EMCOR's remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaled $15.62 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 32.9%, providing excellent visibility for sustained growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our RPOs totaled $15.62 billion at the end of the quarter versus $11.75 billion in the year ago period and $13.25 billion as of December 31, 2025. This represents year-over-year growth of 32.9% and sequential growth of 17.9%." **Numbers:** 15.62, 11.75, 13.25, 32.9%, 17.9% ### 5. full_year_2026_guidance **Claim:** EMCOR is raising its full year 2026 revenue guidance to between $18.5 billion and $19.25 billion and diluted earnings per share guidance to between $28.25 and $29.75. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are increasing our revenue and diluted earnings per share guidance to a range that reflects our confidence in the sustained operational excellence that we have exhibited and strong market momentum. We now expect to earn revenues between $18.5 billion and $19.25 billion and diluted earnings per share of between $28.25 and $29.75." **Numbers:** 18.5, 19.25, 28.25, 29.75 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*