--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/eqt last_updated: 2026-05-05T22:48:43.408Z --- # EQT Corporation (EQT) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T22:48:43.124Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $58.72 (▼ -0.61%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $36.7B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $48.47 – $68.24 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 28 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $0.58 (+29% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $44 (-25.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 73/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## EQT Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.9B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $0.58^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 73 = MoonshotScore 73^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Tactical Volume Curtailments After surging production volumes in the peak winter pricing in Q1, we began tactically curtailing volumes this month to optimize price realizations during shoulder season and have embedded 10 to 15 Bcf of curtailments into our second quarter production guidance. > "After surging production volumes in the peak winter pricing in Q1, we began tactically curtailing volumes this month to optimize price realizations during shoulder season and have embedded 10 to 15 Bcf of curtailments into our second quarter production guidance." > — Jeremy Knop, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Record Free Cash Flow EQT generated more than $1.8 billion of free cash flow in the first quarter, another record-high for EQT. > "We generated more than $1.8 billion of free cash flow in the first quarter, another record-high for EQT." > — Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Lng Portfolio Fcf Potential If our LNG portfolio was fully online today, with current TTF and JKM spreads to Henry Hub, our projected 2026 free cash flow would be approximately $6 billion. > "In fact, if our LNG portfolio was fully online today, with current TTF and JKM spreads to Henry Hub, our projected 2026 free cash flow would be approximately $6 billion." > — Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Upgrade Credit Rating This accelerated deleveraging has already been recognized by the credit rating agencies, with Fitch upgrading EQT to BBB during the quarter. This milestone further strengthens our brand while mitigating financial risk as we expand our gas sales portfolio. > "This accelerated deleveraging has already been recognized by the credit rating agencies, with Fitch upgrading EQT to BBB during the quarter. This milestone further strengthens our brand while mitigating financial risk as we expand our gas sales portfolio." > — Jeremy Knop, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+32.1%) | | Gross Margin | 10.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (98.4%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 6.0 | medium | op margin very strong (60.3%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.5B, 4.1× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 45.8 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (76%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -25.1% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 46 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -25.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -25.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 45.8 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $61 — hisse %4.0 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $56 — hisse %4.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -12% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $0.45 | $0.42 | BEAT | -4.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $0.52 | $0.36 | BEAT | -4.0% | | Q4 FY25 | $0.90 | $0.76 | BEAT | +1.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.33 | $2.08 | +12.0% EPS | +3.1% | Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $2.33 vs $2.08 est^[FMP], +12.0% beat. D+1 movement: +3.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $0.58 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $0.58^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $44^{[FMP target]}; high target $55^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $0.58 + CapEx < $598.5M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.58^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $59^[FMP]8.5M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $59 and median $44^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $0.56 or CapEx ≥ $598.5M** Threshold: EPS < $0.56^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $59 below SMA200 $56^[FMP], if rejection continues, $48^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.33 vs $2.08 beat^[FMP], stock +3.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $598.5M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 60.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $44 (-25.1% upside vs current $59) - **High / Low:** $55 / $23 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 19 / 6 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 0 (last quarter), 51 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. record_free_cash_flow **Claim:** EQT generated more than $1.8 billion of free cash flow in the first quarter, another record-high for EQT. **Evidence (transcript):** "We generated more than $1.8 billion of free cash flow in the first quarter, another record-high for EQT." **Numbers:** $1.8 billion ### 2. lng_portfolio_fcf_potential **Claim:** If our LNG portfolio was fully online today, with current TTF and JKM spreads to Henry Hub, our projected 2026 free cash flow would be approximately $6 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "In fact, if our LNG portfolio was fully online today, with current TTF and JKM spreads to Henry Hub, our projected 2026 free cash flow would be approximately $6 billion." **Numbers:** $6 billion, 2026 ### 3. upgrade_credit_rating **Claim:** This accelerated deleveraging has already been recognized by the credit rating agencies, with Fitch upgrading EQT to BBB during the quarter. This milestone further strengthens our brand while mitigating financial risk as we expand our gas sales portfolio. **Evidence (transcript):** "This accelerated deleveraging has already been recognized by the credit rating agencies, with Fitch upgrading EQT to BBB during the quarter. This milestone further strengthens our brand while mitigating financial risk as we expand our gas sales portfolio." **Numbers:** BBB ### 4. tactical_volume_curtailments **Claim:** After surging production volumes in the peak winter pricing in Q1, we began tactically curtailing volumes this month to optimize price realizations during shoulder season and have embedded 10 to 15 Bcf of curtailments into our second quarter production guidance. **Evidence (transcript):** "After surging production volumes in the peak winter pricing in Q1, we began tactically curtailing volumes this month to optimize price realizations during shoulder season and have embedded 10 to 15 Bcf of curtailments into our second quarter production guidance." **Numbers:** 10, 15 ### 5. capex_decline_q3_q4 **Claim:** From a CapEx standpoint, the second quarter represents our peak capital investment period of the year, driven by the timing of growth investments. We expect to see meaningful declines in capital spending into the third and fourth quarters, which should further support free cash flow generation in the back half of the year. **Evidence (transcript):** "From a CapEx standpoint, the second quarter represents our peak capital investment period of the year, driven by the timing of growth investments. We expect to see meaningful declines in capital spending into the third and fourth quarters, which should further support free cash flow generation in the back half of the year." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*