--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/exc last_updated: 2026-05-05T21:45:48.580Z --- # Exelon Corporation (EXC) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T21:45:48.285Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $46.18 (▼ -0.92%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $47.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $41.71 – $50.65 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 6 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $0.89 (-3% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $6.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 7/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $50 (+8.3% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 20/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Exelon Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $6.9B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $0.89^{[FMP est]}. 7 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 20 = MoonshotScore 20^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Rate Base Growth Exelon expects rate base growth of approximately 8% and annualized earnings growth of 5% to 7% through 2029. > "With continued returns on equity in the 9% to 10% range, we expect rate base growth of approximately 8% and annualized earnings growth of 5% to 7% through 2029, with the expectation of being near the top end of that range." > — Calvin Butler, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Capital Investment Plan Exelon now expects to invest $41.3 billion of capital to support our customers, with more than 70% of the plan-over-plan increase driven by transmission. > "Looking ahead, we now expect to invest $41.3 billion of capital to support our customers, with more than 70% of the plan-over-plan increase driven by transmission, where we continue to have a unique opportunity and significant momentum." > — Calvin Butler, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Transmission Opportunities Exelon now have line of sight to an additional $12 billion to $17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade, that strengthen and lengthen our plan. > "Coupled with our strength in execution, we now have line of sight to an additional $12 billion to $17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade, that strengthen and lengthen our plan." > — Jeanne Jones, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. O&M Cost Savings Exelon is saving our customers approximately $580 million in O&M annually relative to what it would have been growing at a standard inflation level over the last decade. > "This focus is saving our customers approximately $580 million in O&M annually relative to what it would have been growing at a standard inflation level over the last decade." > — Jeanne Jones, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-19.4%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 0.0 | weak | Q4: low margin (-21.6%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (21.8%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-1.2B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 40.6 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 2.0 | weak | majority sell/hold (18% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +8.3% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 41 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +8.3% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +8.3% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 40.6 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $48 — hisse %4.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $46 — hisse %1.0 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +20% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $0.92 | $0.88 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q2 FY25 | $0.39 | $0.37 | BEAT | -0.6% | | Q3 FY25 | $0.86 | $0.78 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $0.59 | $0.55 | +7.9% EPS | +2.0% | Q4 (February 12, 2026): EPS $0.59 vs $0.55 est^[FMP], +7.9% beat. D+1 movement: +2.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $0.89 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $0.89^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $50^{[FMP target]}; high target $55^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $0.89 + CapEx < $2.4B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.89^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $2.4B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $46^[FMP] and median $50^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $0.86 or CapEx ≥ $2.4B** Threshold: EPS < $0.86^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $46^[FMP] below SMA200 $46, if rejection continues, $39^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $0.59 vs $0.55 beat^[FMP], stock +2.0% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $2.4B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 21.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $50 (+8.3% upside vs current $46) - **High / Low:** $55 / $43 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 4 / 16 / 2 - **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 41 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. Rate_Base_Growth **Claim:** Exelon expects rate base growth of approximately 8% and annualized earnings growth of 5% to 7% through 2029. **Evidence (transcript):** "With continued returns on equity in the 9% to 10% range, we expect rate base growth of approximately 8% and annualized earnings growth of 5% to 7% through 2029, with the expectation of being near the top end of that range." **Numbers:** 9%, 10%, 8%, 5%, 7%, 2029 ### 2. Capital_Investment_Plan **Claim:** Exelon now expects to invest $41.3 billion of capital to support our customers, with more than 70% of the plan-over-plan increase driven by transmission. **Evidence (transcript):** "Looking ahead, we now expect to invest $41.3 billion of capital to support our customers, with more than 70% of the plan-over-plan increase driven by transmission, where we continue to have a unique opportunity and significant momentum." **Numbers:** $41.3, 70% ### 3. Transmission_Opportunities **Claim:** Exelon now have line of sight to an additional $12 billion to $17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade, that strengthen and lengthen our plan. **Evidence (transcript):** "Coupled with our strength in execution, we now have line of sight to an additional $12 billion to $17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade, that strengthen and lengthen our plan." **Numbers:** $12, $17 ### 4. O&M_Cost_Savings **Claim:** Exelon is saving our customers approximately $580 million in O&M annually relative to what it would have been growing at a standard inflation level over the last decade. **Evidence (transcript):** "This focus is saving our customers approximately $580 million in O&M annually relative to what it would have been growing at a standard inflation level over the last decade." **Numbers:** $580 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*