--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/exe last_updated: 2026-05-09T13:06:10.832Z --- # Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T13:06:10.400Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $95.94 (▼ -1.52%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $23.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $91.02 – $126.62 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 4 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.17 (+6% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $3.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A+ (overall 5/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $139 (+44.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 61/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Expand Energy Corporation — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $3.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.17^{[FMP est]}. 3 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 61 = MoonshotScore 61^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Margin Improvement Expand Energy is targeting approximately $0.20 of margin improvement by focusing on marketing and commercial activities, which equates to approximately $500 million of repeatable incremental free cash flow per year. > "On our last call, we stated the size of the prize of this effort is about $0.20 of margin improvement, which equates to approximately $500 million of repeatable incremental free cash flow per year." > — Michael Wichterich, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Lng Strategy Expand Energy will shape its LNG strategy with a dynamic approach, continuing to add LNG opportunities to its portfolio with different types of contracts. > "Our LNG strategy will be dynamic and shape of the economic merits of each agreement partnership or joint venture. We will take a portfolio approach, continuing to add to our LNG opportunities over the next several years with different types of contracts." > — Michael Wichterich, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Ai Impact On Costs Expand Energy is excited about the early impact of machine learning and AI is having on lowering cost, enhancing well productivity and sees this as their own self-help program. > "Last year, we made tremendous operational improvements, but we see room for continuing operational improvements across the portfolio. and are excited about the early impact of machine learning and AI is having on lowering cost, enhancing well productivity. I see this as our own self-help program." > — Michael Wichterich, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Western Haynesville Progress Early production results from Expand Energy's first well in the Western Haynesville have been encouraging, and the company has more wells planned this year. > "A lot of you, and frankly, a lot of our peers are anxious to hear about the progress in the Western Haynesville. Early production results from our first well have been encouraging. We are pleased with our execution and cost competitiveness on the well and have more wells planned this year." > — Michael Wichterich, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Gulf Coast Advantage Expand Energy is uniquely positioned to take advantage of these events, with its Gulf Coast assets at the epicenter of LNG facilities, pushing U.S. natural gas to the forefront of energy security. > "Expand is uniquely positioned to take advantage of these events. Simply put, we have positioned ourselves to be in the right place at the right time. For example, our Gulf Coast assets sit at the epicenter of LNG." > — Michael Wichterich, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+19.3%) | | Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (53.2%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin very strong (34.8%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.7B, 2.4× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 39.8 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (82%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +44.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 40 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +44.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +44.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 39.8 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $103 — hisse %6.9 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $105 — hisse %8.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -30% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.10 | $1.14 | MISS | +4.9% | | Q3 FY25 | $0.97 | $0.90 | BEAT | -0.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.00 | $1.87 | BEAT | -3.1% | | Q1 FY26 | $3.83 | $3.69 | +3.8% EPS | +4.2% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $3.83 vs $3.69 est^[FMP], +3.8% beat. D+1 movement: +4.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $1.17 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.17^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $139^{[FMP target]}; high target $146^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.17 + CapEx < $707.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.17^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $707.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $96^[FMP] and median $139^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.13 or CapEx ≥ $707.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.13^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $96 below SMA200 $105^[FMP], if rejection continues, $89^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $3.83 vs $3.69 beat^[FMP], stock +4.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $707.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 34.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $139 (+44.9% upside vs current $96) - **High / Low:** $146 / $123 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 23 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 36 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. lng_strategy **Claim:** Expand Energy will shape its LNG strategy with a dynamic approach, continuing to add LNG opportunities to its portfolio with different types of contracts. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our LNG strategy will be dynamic and shape of the economic merits of each agreement partnership or joint venture. We will take a portfolio approach, continuing to add to our LNG opportunities over the next several years with different types of contracts." **Numbers:** 1.15 ### 2. margin_improvement **Claim:** Expand Energy is targeting approximately $0.20 of margin improvement by focusing on marketing and commercial activities, which equates to approximately $500 million of repeatable incremental free cash flow per year. **Evidence (transcript):** "On our last call, we stated the size of the prize of this effort is about $0.20 of margin improvement, which equates to approximately $500 million of repeatable incremental free cash flow per year." **Numbers:** 0.20, 500 ### 3. western_haynesville_progress **Claim:** Early production results from Expand Energy's first well in the Western Haynesville have been encouraging, and the company has more wells planned this year. **Evidence (transcript):** "A lot of you, and frankly, a lot of our peers are anxious to hear about the progress in the Western Haynesville. Early production results from our first well have been encouraging. We are pleased with our execution and cost competitiveness on the well and have more wells planned this year." **Numbers:** — ### 4. ai_impact_on_costs **Claim:** Expand Energy is excited about the early impact of machine learning and AI is having on lowering cost, enhancing well productivity and sees this as their own self-help program. **Evidence (transcript):** "Last year, we made tremendous operational improvements, but we see room for continuing operational improvements across the portfolio. and are excited about the early impact of machine learning and AI is having on lowering cost, enhancing well productivity. I see this as our own self-help program." **Numbers:** — ### 5. gulf_coast_advantage **Claim:** Expand Energy is uniquely positioned to take advantage of these events, with its Gulf Coast assets at the epicenter of LNG facilities, pushing U.S. natural gas to the forefront of energy security. **Evidence (transcript):** "Expand is uniquely positioned to take advantage of these events. Simply put, we have positioned ourselves to be in the right place at the right time. For example, our Gulf Coast assets sit at the epicenter of LNG." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*