--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/expe last_updated: 2026-05-09T12:02:50.016Z --- # Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T12:02:49.438Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $229.98 (▼ -9.02%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $26.9B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $156.05 – $303.80 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 6 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $5.14 (+21% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $260 (+13.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 50/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Expedia Group, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $4.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $5.14^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 50 = MoonshotScore 50^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Q2 Revenue Growth Guidance Expedia expects revenue growth for the second quarter of 2026 to be in the range of 9% to 11%. > "For the second quarter, we expect gross bookings growth of 7% to 9% and revenue growth of 9% to 11%." > — Scott Schenkel, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Q1 Margin Expansion Expedia achieved its highest Q1 margin in 15 years with nearly 6 points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in Q1. > "We delivered first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $542 million with a margin of 15.8%, our highest Q1 in 15 years with nearly 6 points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion." > — Scott Schenkel, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. B2b Bookings Growth Expedia's B2B gross bookings grew 22%, led by an acceleration in North America and double-digit growth across all core regions. > "B2B gross bookings grew 22% to $10.7 billion, led by an acceleration in North America and double-digit growth across all core regions." > — Scott Schenkel, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Consumer Bookings Growth Expedia's consumer brands grew bookings by 10%, the fastest pace in 12 quarters. > "Our consumer brands grew bookings by 10%, the fastest pace in 12 quarters." > — Ariane Gorin, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Ai Powered Servicing Expedia handles more than 250 million service interactions a year with over 30% of those are powered by AI. > "We handle more than 250 million service interactions a year with over half resolved through self-service. More than 30% of those are powered by AI and that number keeps increasing." > — Ariane Gorin, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Marketing Value From Ai Overall, AI-enabled tools are driving hundreds of millions of dollars in realized marketing value through greater productivity and workflow automation. > "Overall, AI-enabled tools are driving hundreds of millions of dollars in realized marketing value through greater productivity and workflow automation." > — Ariane Gorin, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-9.5%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 9.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (89.0%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (7.3%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($3.7B, 20.4× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (8.4%) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 40.7 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (42% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +13.1% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 41 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +13.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +13.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 40.7 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $240 — hisse %4.0 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $237 — hisse %3.0 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +131% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $4.24 | $3.97 | BEAT | +4.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $7.57 | $6.97 | BEAT | +17.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $3.78 | $3.35 | BEAT | -6.4% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.96 | $1.41 | +39.0% EPS | -9.0% | Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $1.96 vs $1.41 est^[FMP], +39.0% beat. D+1 movement: -9.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $5.14 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $5.14^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $260^{[FMP target]}; high target $330^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $5.14 + CapEx < $184.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $5.14^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $184.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $230^[FMP] and median $260^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.99 or CapEx ≥ $184.0M** Threshold: EPS < $4.99^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $230 below SMA200 $237^[FMP], if rejection continues, $201^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.96 vs $1.41 beat^[FMP], stock -9.0% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $184.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 7.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $260 (+13.1% upside vs current $230) - **High / Low:** $330 / $240 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 15 / 21 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 16 (last quarter), 119 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. q1_margin_expansion **Claim:** Expedia achieved its highest Q1 margin in 15 years with nearly 6 points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in Q1. **Evidence (transcript):** "We delivered first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $542 million with a margin of 15.8%, our highest Q1 in 15 years with nearly 6 points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion." **Numbers:** $542 million, 15.8%, 6 ### 2. consumer_bookings_growth **Claim:** Expedia's consumer brands grew bookings by 10%, the fastest pace in 12 quarters. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our consumer brands grew bookings by 10%, the fastest pace in 12 quarters." **Numbers:** 10%, 12 ### 3. b2b_bookings_growth **Claim:** Expedia's B2B gross bookings grew 22%, led by an acceleration in North America and double-digit growth across all core regions. **Evidence (transcript):** "B2B gross bookings grew 22% to $10.7 billion, led by an acceleration in North America and double-digit growth across all core regions." **Numbers:** 22%, $10.7 billion ### 4. q2_revenue_growth_guidance **Claim:** Expedia expects revenue growth for the second quarter of 2026 to be in the range of 9% to 11%. **Evidence (transcript):** "For the second quarter, we expect gross bookings growth of 7% to 9% and revenue growth of 9% to 11%." **Numbers:** 7%, 9%, 9%, 11% ### 5. ai_powered_servicing **Claim:** Expedia handles more than 250 million service interactions a year with over 30% of those are powered by AI. **Evidence (transcript):** "We handle more than 250 million service interactions a year with over half resolved through self-service. More than 30% of those are powered by AI and that number keeps increasing." **Numbers:** 250 million, 30% ### 6. marketing_value_from_ai **Claim:** Overall, AI-enabled tools are driving hundreds of millions of dollars in realized marketing value through greater productivity and workflow automation. **Evidence (transcript):** "Overall, AI-enabled tools are driving hundreds of millions of dollars in realized marketing value through greater productivity and workflow automation." **Numbers:** hundreds of millions --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*