--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/fang last_updated: 2026-05-05T20:53:06.192Z --- # Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:53:05.860Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $206.18 (▼ -3.51%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $58.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $127.75 – $214.51 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 3 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $5.11 (+91% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $212 (+2.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 59/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Diamondback Energy, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $4.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $5.11^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 59 = MoonshotScore 59^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Production Growth Signal Given oil supply disruptions and high oil prices, Diamondback is signaling a favorable environment to grow production. > "And so if that isn't a signal to grow production and an advantaged area like the Permian Basin that I don't know what is." > — Kaes Van't Hof, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Waha Pricing Protection Diamondback is protected against negative Waha pricing with financial and physical hedging, and physical protection will increase with new pipelines coming online. > "We're well protected with financial and physical hedges our mix of physical to financial is going to be moving more towards physical when these 2 new pipes come on, hopefully, second half of the year." > — Kaes Van't Hof, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Capital Allocation Flexibility Diamondback wants the flexibility to increase capital returns and aims to maintain the ability to make cyclical moves. > "We just want the flexibility to make more cyclical moves versus moves within a 90-day window within a quarter." > — Kaes Van't Hof, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Well Performance Improvement Diamondback is seeing increased well performance and production due to innovations in completion design and automation. > "our well performance year-to-date looks up relative to last year. And I think that it's probably a surprise even to us internally, but we've always continued to try new things in terms of completion design, and efficiency that I think is starting to pay dividends." > — Kaes Van't Hof, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Debt Reduction Target Diamondback aims to reduce its net debt to below $10 billion in the next 12 to 18 months, thanks to higher commodity prices and excess free cash flow. > "I think we've talked previously about hitting that $10 billion net debt figure sometime in the next 12 to 18 months." > — Arun Jayaram, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Viper Ownership Strategy Diamondback believes the growth opportunities for Viper are significant and is not planning to sell more shares currently, but ownership could decrease through dilution. > "I do think the growth opportunity set for Viper is pretty significant. So could there be a world where Diamondback's ownership is reduced through dilution. I think that's possible." > — Kaes Van't Hof, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 8.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+16.1%) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (68.7%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (2.7%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 8.0 | strong | FCF positive but absorbed ($0.9B vs $0.9B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 62.6 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (84%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +2.6% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 63 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +2.6% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 2/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +2.6% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 62.6 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $189 — hisse %9.0 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $159 — hisse %29.9 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +96% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.67 | $2.76 | MISS | -1.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.08 | $2.94 | BEAT | -1.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.74 | $2.00 | MISS | -0.7% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.23 | $3.74 | +13.1% EPS | -3.5% | Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $4.23 vs $3.74 est^[FMP], +13.1% beat. D+1 movement: -3.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $5.11 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $5.11^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $212^{[FMP target]}; high target $262^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $5.11 + CapEx < $933.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $5.11^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $933.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $206^[FMP] and median $212^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.96 or CapEx ≥ $933.0M** Threshold: EPS < $4.96^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $206 below SMA200 $159^[FMP], if rejection continues, $135^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $4.23 vs $3.74 beat^[FMP], stock -3.5% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $933.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 2.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $212 (+2.6% upside vs current $206) - **High / Low:** $262 / $100 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 26 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 11 (last quarter), 89 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. production_growth_signal **Claim:** Given oil supply disruptions and high oil prices, Diamondback is signaling a favorable environment to grow production. **Evidence (transcript):** "And so if that isn't a signal to grow production and an advantaged area like the Permian Basin that I don't know what is." **Numbers:** — ### 2. capital_allocation_flexibility **Claim:** Diamondback wants the flexibility to increase capital returns and aims to maintain the ability to make cyclical moves. **Evidence (transcript):** "We just want the flexibility to make more cyclical moves versus moves within a 90-day window within a quarter." **Numbers:** 90 ### 3. well_performance_improvement **Claim:** Diamondback is seeing increased well performance and production due to innovations in completion design and automation. **Evidence (transcript):** "our well performance year-to-date looks up relative to last year. And I think that it's probably a surprise even to us internally, but we've always continued to try new things in terms of completion design, and efficiency that I think is starting to pay dividends." **Numbers:** — ### 4. waha_pricing_protection **Claim:** Diamondback is protected against negative Waha pricing with financial and physical hedging, and physical protection will increase with new pipelines coming online. **Evidence (transcript):** "We're well protected with financial and physical hedges our mix of physical to financial is going to be moving more towards physical when these 2 new pipes come on, hopefully, second half of the year." **Numbers:** 2 ### 5. debt_reduction_target **Claim:** Diamondback aims to reduce its net debt to below $10 billion in the next 12 to 18 months, thanks to higher commodity prices and excess free cash flow. **Evidence (transcript):** "I think we've talked previously about hitting that $10 billion net debt figure sometime in the next 12 to 18 months." **Numbers:** $10, 12, 18 ### 6. viper_ownership_strategy **Claim:** Diamondback believes the growth opportunities for Viper are significant and is not planning to sell more shares currently, but ownership could decrease through dilution. **Evidence (transcript):** "I do think the growth opportunity set for Viper is pretty significant. So could there be a world where Diamondback's ownership is reduced through dilution. I think that's possible." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*