--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/fico last_updated: 2026-05-09T12:39:09.724Z --- # Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T12:39:09.243Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $1126.00 (▼ -0.21%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $26.1B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $870.01 – $2217.60 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $11.67 (+36% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $676.1M | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $1650 (+46.5% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 80/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Fair Isaac Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $676.1M^{[FMP est]}, EPS $11.67^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 80 = MoonshotScore 80^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Mortgage Origination Revenue Second quarter mortgage originations revenues were up 127% versus the prior year. Mortgage originations revenues accounted for 72% of B2B revenue and 63% of total Scores revenue. > "Second quarter mortgage originations revenues were up 127% versus the prior year. Mortgage originations revenues accounted for 72% of B2B revenue and 63% of total Scores revenue." > — Steven Weber, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Platform Arr Growth FICO Platform ARR grew by 49% to $349 million, representing 44% of total ARR. > "Platform ARR was $349 million, representing 44% of our total Q2 '26 ARR. Platform ARR grew 49% versus the prior year" > — Steven Weber, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Score Segment Growth FICO's second quarter score segment revenues increased by 60% year-over-year, driven primarily by growth in B2B scores. > "At the segment level, shown on Page 6, our second quarter score segment revenues were $475 million, up 60% versus the prior year." > — William Lansing, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. B2b Score Growth B2B revenues were up 72%, primarily attributable to higher mortgage origination scores unit price and an increase in volume of mortgage origination. > "As shown on Page 16 of our presentation, B2B revenues were up 72%, primarily attributable to higher mortgage origination scores unit price and an increase in volume of mortgage origination." > — Steven Weber, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Share Repurchases FICO repurchased $605 million in shares in Q2, representing the single largest quarterly repurchase in FICO history, and has bought an additional $170 million in shares since April 1. > "In Q2, we repurchased 484,000 shares for a total cost of $605 million, representing the single largest quarterly repurchase in dollars in FICO history. With our recent $1.5 billion Board authorization, strong free cash flow and unutilized revolver, since April 1, we have bought an additional $170 million or 164,000 shares at an average price of $1,040 per share." > — Steven Weber, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+28.9%) | | Gross Margin | 9.0 | strong | Q2: very high margin (86.8%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 6.0 | medium | op margin very strong (58.2%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.2B, 838.7× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (9.0%) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 58.5 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (71%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +46.5% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 59 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +46.5% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +46.5% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 58.5 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $1122 — hisse %0.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $1461 — hisse %22.9 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -12% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $8.57 | $7.71 | BEAT | -6.0% | | Q4 FY25 | $7.74 | $7.32 | BEAT | +2.8% | | Q1 FY26 | $7.33 | $7.08 | BEAT | -1.6% | | Q2 FY26 | $12.50 | $10.89 | +14.8% EPS | +3.3% | Q2 (April 28, 2026): EPS $12.50 vs $10.89 est^[FMP], +14.8% beat. D+1 movement: +3.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $11.67 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $11.67^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $1650^{[FMP target]}; high target $1950^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $11.67 + CapEx < $266000** Threshold: EPS ≈ $11.67^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $266000^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $1126^[FMP] and median $1650^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $11.32 or CapEx ≥ $266000** Threshold: EPS < $11.32^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $1126 below SMA200 $1461^[FMP], if rejection continues, $1242^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $12.50 vs $10.89 beat^[FMP], stock +3.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $266000^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 58.2%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $1650 (+46.5% upside vs current $1126) - **High / Low:** $1950 / $1150 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 15 / 5 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 33 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fy26_guidance_increase **Claim:** FICO is raising its full year fiscal 2026 revenue and EPS guidance based on a strong first half and outlook. **Evidence (transcript):** "We had a great first half of our fiscal year, and I'm pleased to report that today, we are raising our full year guidance as we enter the third quarter." **Numbers:** — ### 2. score_segment_growth **Claim:** FICO's second quarter score segment revenues increased by 60% year-over-year, driven primarily by growth in B2B scores. **Evidence (transcript):** "At the segment level, shown on Page 6, our second quarter score segment revenues were $475 million, up 60% versus the prior year." **Numbers:** $475 million, 60% ### 3. platform_arr_growth **Claim:** FICO Platform ARR grew by 49% to $349 million, representing 44% of total ARR. **Evidence (transcript):** "Platform ARR was $349 million, representing 44% of our total Q2 '26 ARR. Platform ARR grew 49% versus the prior year" **Numbers:** $349 million, 44%, 49% ### 4. b2b_score_growth **Claim:** B2B revenues were up 72%, primarily attributable to higher mortgage origination scores unit price and an increase in volume of mortgage origination. **Evidence (transcript):** "As shown on Page 16 of our presentation, B2B revenues were up 72%, primarily attributable to higher mortgage origination scores unit price and an increase in volume of mortgage origination." **Numbers:** 72% ### 5. mortgage_origination_revenue **Claim:** Second quarter mortgage originations revenues were up 127% versus the prior year. Mortgage originations revenues accounted for 72% of B2B revenue and 63% of total Scores revenue. **Evidence (transcript):** "Second quarter mortgage originations revenues were up 127% versus the prior year. Mortgage originations revenues accounted for 72% of B2B revenue and 63% of total Scores revenue." **Numbers:** 127%, 72%, 63% ### 6. share_repurchases **Claim:** FICO repurchased $605 million in shares in Q2, representing the single largest quarterly repurchase in FICO history, and has bought an additional $170 million in shares since April 1. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Q2, we repurchased 484,000 shares for a total cost of $605 million, representing the single largest quarterly repurchase in dollars in FICO history. With our recent $1.5 billion Board authorization, strong free cash flow and unutilized revolver, since April 1, we have bought an additional $170 million or 164,000 shares at an average price of $1,040 per share." **Numbers:** 484,000, $605 million, $1.5 billion, $170 million, 164,000, $1,040 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*